US is more than 5 times the population of Italy. So I would compare US numbers with all of EU than with Italy alone (of course with the time lag)
Given that every country has its own criterion for testing (or not), and that these criteria change on day-to-day basis, comparing the number of infected people seems just futile to me.
Are there numbers available for hospital admissions and/or people in ICU, and deaths? That would really tell you something about the state how a country is grappling with the virus.
The only thing progressing faster than the exponential growth of the virus victims is the balance sheet of the fed. We know that in a physical system (virus growth) the exponential growth is limited and will end in a saturation when the virus kills the last person on earth for example or most of the population is immune and the propagation conditions are not fulfilled anymore.
With the fed it is not physical it is only numbers so there is no limit.
I think the numbers in the US and UK are yet to increase at least tenfold (10x), probably more - thus hitting closer to home for major exchanges and stock indices.
My gut feeling says S&P 500 falling back to a (2016) level of around 2000 points is likely, maybe even to the 1500 (seen in 2000, 2007 and 2013), or in between.
Until Iâve seen either of these two things happening, Iâm refraining from making larger (lump-sum) equity investments. That will be my own rough guideline.
On Thursday 19 March 2020, the dollar index DXY reached 103, the same level as at the depth of the 2016 crisis.
Also on 19 March, spot copper prices fell below 2$/lb, same level as at the depth of the 2016 crisis, but rebounded sharply for now. Depth of 2008 crisis saw copper at $1.5/lb, so thereâs still some room to go lower.
By coincidence, the low point for VT ($54.8) happened on the same day.
Only oil crashed a day earlier, falling below $20 for the first time since the dotcom bust in 2001 on 18 March.
Iâd say these are some important indicators to watch. I wont mind adding if s&p falls to 2000pts or below
Itâs been a pleasure guys, I think this thread is now contributing negatively to my well being
It will be fun to come over here once the pandemic is over and look back at ourselves.
Probably not that long. S&P isnât that far away from the 2000 mark. We could easily see that next week.
I think a lot of the bad economic news will be âpriced inâ earlier, especially at the current infection rates.
The economic impact is probably hard to quantify, but I think weâll see a point at which âbad newsâ arenât going to shake the markets much anymore.
PS: Also, I donât think I would be able to prognose the âbottomâ of the market. It might depreciate slowly over months, or even see another crash due to
The main thing I want to see the markets digest (prior to making larger investments) is sharp increase in numbers of domestic cases and deaths, and thus possibly another âwave of panicâ in the U.S. (as being the worldâs most important stock market). Which, I think, is a realistic scenario, as they arenât that well prepared and currently probably lagging behind Europe by a couple of days or weeks in infections and deaths.
This is the proverbial âfalling knifeâ I donât want to catch.
Longer-term, there are of course still other risks ahead. Maybe on the bond markets, with governments defaulting or what not. But thatâs even harder to predict und unforeseeable for me.
Switzerland has increased its capacities in the past weeks in an impressive way. The hospitals have increased several folds their ICU beds, moved the employees to new duties. The respirators have been ordered long ago but the company, which is based in Switzerland, is just slow to deliver because it operates at its full capacity. We have masks and ordered more but some are blocked by⊠Germany. Maybe we should block their respirators orders⊠Negotiations must be fun
Testing population-wise is high. Switzerland tests more than Germany (per inhabitant per day). We would all be happy to do more tests but the reagent is difficult to get hold of. US have blocked our orders. Maybe we should block their respirators orders as wellâŠ
All spital battalions have been mobilized, plus several groups of paramedics and support troups, people with families, duties, jobs, thousands of them, have leaved to help in civil hospitals and build extra hospitals (we have those easy to build hospitals made of a container that can expand, up to 200 beds in a day).
All this to say that the current Swiss/authorities bashing seems to be unfair, if not quite disgusting. I know people at the federal level and in Geneva (OFSP, HUG, parliaments) who have been working 18 hours a day for a month now to prepare for this and all people are able of is complain and say that it is not enough.
So, whether you look at testing, personnel, hospitals or beds, I donât think that Germany is better prepared despite having 2 weeks more than us.
Iâm still puzzled by the age distribution of positive cases, my impression is that places with widespread testing have it a lot more skewed towards young people. But we donât really see that in Switzerland, maybe because the testing capacity is only starting to get online?
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or most of the population is immune and the propagation conditions are not fulfilled anymore.
