Coronavirus: when do we reach the bottom of the dip?

[glina]

I bought far less than you, but got some VEA@29.03 and VGT@195 shortly after the market open.

[San_Francisco]

@Julianek

https://www.thelocal.ch/20200315/dont-give-into-fear-swiss-government

“no airline would survive the crisis without government support.”

So basically he’s admitting they’re all broke.

[Giff]

Damn, my order for VOO (SP500) had a too low limit (so far). Only got myself some 4K of large cap European stocks (MEUD). Maybe I buy some VWO…

[ma0]

Guess who’s developing new covid–19 diagnostic tests?

[valarmorghulis]

not developing, already developed

[Alex]

I wonder how much money Trump will offer them to say it was Made In The USA…

[San_Francisco]

I have three portfolios at VIAC (no stocks so far), more or less equal in size.

I am currently thinking about reallocating one of them at each of the next three rebalancing days (beginning of April, May and June respectively).

What do you guys think?

[Cortana]

Sounds like a great plan.

[glina]

I’d go all in in April

[Zerte2]

Nice metaphor - although it’s a bit the reverse at the moment: the shelves are full and the big buyers are leaving the store. Google for “share buyback program suspended” .

[dbu]

@San_Francisco

I have three portfolios at VIAC (no stocks so far), more or less equal in size.

I am currently thinking about reallocating one of them at each of the next three rebalancing days (beginning of April, May and June respectively).

What do you guys think?

If they are significant proportions of your total investment assets (e.g. each >10%, or set whatever personal rule works for you), I would split them as you are doing it.
But just out of personal/emotional comfort.
Otherwise I would most probably jump all in at once.

[ma0]

lockdown.

[1000000CHF]

@glina

High risk, but high reward (if you pick wisely).

I think you don’t have to pick. You could buy an ETF of airline or tourist industry?

[glina]

I know we say don’t pick and don’t time it, but to give you an example, TUI reached a price of 2.4 EUR today morning, now it is at 3.4 EUR (40% rebound). No I did not get in on time

[1000000CHF]

BTW. Guys, to make you understand how serious this all thing is. I’ve read on NZZ, that in Italy they started not treating older (70+) and most sick patients because they don’t have enough respirators and medical personel. So basically they let die some people. Most epidemiologists think this thing will grow into 50-80% of the population in next couple of months. We’re might not fear in a month about the stocks, we might fear that we’re lockdown for months and the hospitals are so full that if we’ll get sick badly (from corona or whatever else), we will wait in an infinite queue for treatment. We’re fucked.

[Giff]

@1000000CHF

Guys, to make you understand how serious this all thing is. I’ve read on NZZ, that in Italy they started not treating older (70+) and most sick patients because they don’t have enough respirators and medical personel. So basically they let die some people.

This is not true, yet. Lombardy is reaching full capacity so they are moving patients to other regions. But eventually it’ll become true, unless the rate of infection drops (it has been slowly decreasing lately, let’s see today’s numbers…)

[1000000CHF]

@bamboo

if you can’t contain it in China, if you can’t contain it when you have only few cases in Switzerland how could you contain it with officially 1200 cases and probably much more. Let the wave go over the population with minimal loss of life.

You can contain it. Read about the Taiwan epidemic intelligence, or check even statistics for Hong Kong or Singapur. It can be contained, but you need to have effective government and disciplined society - Europe has none.

[1000000CHF]

@Giff

This is not true, yet. Lombardy is reaching full capacity so they are moving patients to other regions. But eventually it’ll become true, unless the rate of infection drops (it has been slowly decreasing lately, let’s see today’s numbers…)

NZZ is not known for fake news, but I can’t confirm it. You might be right if you have better source of information.

[MrRIP]

which is bad, because companies are still issuing dividends and we have to pay taxes on them. I would forbid dividend distributions for those companies whose stock price fell at least 10% from peak, i.e. all the companies.

[Bojack]

«Wir wollen nicht den totalen Stillstand in diesem Land», betont Bundespräsidentin Sommaruga auf die Frage, weshalb man nicht wie in anderen Ländern den kompletten Lockdown mit Ausgangssperre beschlossen habe. Man werde die Situation aber zusammen mit den Kantonen weiter verfolgen. «Der Shutdown ist nicht nötig, solange sich die Bevölkerung an die Regeln hält».

Meanwhile, I just came home from Zürich HB. The Bahnhofstrasse and train station were full of people. An old Swiss couple around 80 y.o. sat next to me on the train. In front of my house, kids are playing on bikes and their mothers cheerfully chat in the sun. Nobody gives a f*ck. Yes, I am too in this group that was outside without a good reason, but now I’m home and don’t go out anymore. But I really wanted to shout at this old couple: stay home you idiots, you risk your lives!

I seriously think if there is no Ausgangsperre, people will not listen. And let nobody give me this bullshit about Swiss being organized and somehow superior. They are (often) stubborn, ignorant and arrogant people, who are so lulled by this economic prosperity that they can’t see things straight…