Okay, let me rephrase it. I am probably using wrong terminology myself! It‘s is not possible to stop the virus from spreading, but it‘s possible to slow down it‘s growth! Thank you for clarifying that!
Perfect, now we reached the truth! You are correct logarithmic curve, logistic curve, logarithmic growth is not the same. You know I have no problems to correct myself and for sure I make mistakes by not using the wrong words. But as Richard Feynman said: If you know the name of a bird in all languages of the world, you still know nothing about the bird.
Nonetheless, thank you for providing the correct term for what I described. And note, the beauty off all this is that you can apply the same models you know from your business to other fields. Had I talked your language from the beginning, the discussion would have been over since long 
.
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No that’s fine. But there are plenty of beautiful places in this country where you can take a nice walk with not many people around. It’s one of the best countries to be isolated in.
lots more room to on your own in Sweden, IMVHO.
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True, if i could choose i would be there now. There is a lot more empty spaces over there. But personal circumstances has placed me here in Switzerland, so i have to make the best out of the situation and there are a lot of worse places to be than Switzerland…
And as that German doctor in his podcast said (Christian Drosten, I’ve linked it above), a slower spreading will help our health infrastructure. He said that if someone catches this virus in two years, there will be enough resources to look after the patient. Whereas now, with all the people getting sick all at once, doctors can hardly keep up.
If each infected person spreads it to more than 1, the growth of the daily new cases will be exponential. If it is lower than 1, it is logarithmic. From a very rough estimate, the number is 3-4 in Switzerland and around 0.5 in South Korea if you assume an average generation duration of 5 days.
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Doctors can work longer, retired doctors called in, all non-critical stuff postponed etc. Difficult to predict.
It’s much simpler though - it’s the ICU intensive care places that can’t keep up, breathing ventilators etc, there’s 1000 in CH, & the queue outside these is going to get very very long very very soon.
1000 IC beds puts CH with Italy on a per inhabitant basis.
1000 spots & critical patients are each in ICU for 1-2 weeks.
800 new cases/day, increasing exponentially.
5% potentially turning critical.
Be afraid.
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You begin to value your freedom more once its restricted.
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I would like to see the data from south korea, adjusted by the age distribution, applied to Switzerland.
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Such a long thread, and I have read all the posts 
btw has anyone noticed the bag website has not announced the new cases for today. usually they publish it by 12 noon.
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Yes, the government realized that the numbers look bad and i guess this is the reason.
https://www.thelocal.ch/20200315/dont-give-into-fear-swiss-government
If you remove the thermometer, the fever goes away…
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What kind of data do you want to see?
They will probably announce country wide lockdown within minutes and maybe they hold off today’s data until then.
How many intensive care beds are needed.
I would base it on the data by age from south korea.
I am right now thinking bout the “FIREd” people that live thanks to their AirBNB rentals 
I actually hope so.
I work in IT and we still don’t have required homeoffice for everyone.
In a super-early stage I remember Ticino had 10% cases in hospital and of those 40% in intensive care.
I didn’t read any number about the whole CH, but if it’s still right, of 2200 cases, 220 are in hospital and 88 in intensive care?
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The notion of a “case” is very a diffuse concept and open to interpretation anyway.
I still believe there’s many undocumented and/or symptomless cases. I won’t be tested even though I’m experiencing at least one symptom (dry cough) at the moment. Guess it’s a 50-50 chance I’ve caught it or not (something else, that is). Honestly wish I could get a positive test result now.
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I’ve done my daily grocery shopping:
- 500 shares of EIMI (Emerging Markets) at price 21.36 (peak price was in the range of 33) = 10.7k USD
- 100 shares of VT at price 58.72 = 5872 USD
- 100 shares of VT at price 58.50 = 5800 USD
shelves are running out of stocks (some pun intended)
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