Very true, but they also have lots of solid assets (hotels, airplanes). Currently trading at P/B=0.7 so below liquidation value. Unless of course the assets also get devalued by 30% or more, which is not impossible.
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No, it always start settling because at some point #infected people > #not infected people, so growth starts to settle. What severe measures do change is the shape of the log curve, they try to streeeeetch the curve as wiiiiiiiiide as possible to reduce the amount of people infected per day, google #flattenthecurve. It is not possible to contain the virus, therefore the numbers will increase anyways. Strictly speaking corona grows also in Singapore logarithmic but their measures are so good that they were able to stretch it so far that you barely see anymore the logarithmic shape. If everything is over and you squeeze their curve you will also see that typical S-shape. This S-shape is typical of proportional growth, business, economies, also the size of particles during synthesis, they all grow like that. New innovations, start-upās enter the market. It seems like they grow exponential (Facebook, Uber) but when market matures their growth starts to settle, thus it grows logarithmic. No one can change that, but the shape and time-frame.
BTC-USD is at 4600 right now.
Tempted to buy just a little littleā¦ 
good point, might one the time I buy a coupleā¦
That is not true. South Korea clearly shows that it is possible.
What is missing here is
- an understanding of the thread in the general population
- mask wearing
ā Home made masks can come close to the performance of surgical masks - widespread testing
ā Although Switzerland is better than most Western countries here - contact tracing and 10 day quarantines for every contact of a positive case.
At least this combination made it possible for South Korea to halve the number of new infections every 4-6 days. By this rate South Korea will be without a single new case in two months.
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I feel this is missing here, big time.
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What is logarithmic shape? Donāt you mean exponential?
You describe a logistic curve. Really, most of your posts it seems like youāre an expert, and some sentences hint that youāre not.
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It is missing.
I went to a fuel station yesterday to fill up the car. Half the customers there had gray hair and were taking it super easy, like buying chocolate bunnies and smiling as if nothing was wrong.
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I think it is going to get bad in Switzerland. At our daycare 4 staff members stayed home because of symptoms or members in their family tested positive. Knowing what babies and toddlers touch and shareā¦ Although we have been taking precautions, Iām pretty sure weāre infected as well (though not showing symptoms (yet)).
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And the government has not shut down all child care! Only the compulsory schoolsā¦
Our daycare is operating at 20% capacity. Because we both work 100% we were offered the option to have some daycare, but after we found out they have cases we took our child home. We are now trying to manage home office, child care, and keeping up with this thread. Very fun experiment so far.
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I find it really sad that people are sitting in restaurants and bars. They will be next group in the exponential growth. The companies are allowing home office & people go to restaurants on weekends & evenings to āget outā. They have not understood it yet or feel like āno-one tells me what to doā. The latter is especially strong in Switzerland (how long did it take to ban smoking inside?). This will cause cases to explode longer & peak higher. Italy & Spain have a very social society, lots of interaction, also bad. Lucky are the totalitarian or otherwise rule-following countries - China, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore.
Please people, stay at home. Enjoy the sun on the balcony.
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I expected the government to close the restaurants on friday, it didnāt. So in a way you canāt blame the people, why should they be smarter than qualified experts?
In any case, starting today Iām not moving from home 
Btw I donāt think there is something wrong in going for a car ride or a walk into a deserted place. You need to stay mentally healthy too.
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The same for meā¦ 
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ā¦and, to a degree, probably South Korea as well.
Whereas in Switzerland, I think thereās some risk factors:
- aversion to big (federal) government and authoritarian decision-making
- complacency with having the best (most expensive) health system, being the ārichestā and most orderly country (āthings arenāt going to become as bad as in Italy, becauseā¦ weāre not Italy, everyone know Italy has a bit dysfunctional governmentā)
- high percentage of vaccine-scepticism and outright anti-vaccination attitudes
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I could not check the veracity of the source, but there are rumours that since last Thursday in Italy:
- People can only go outside with an official certification (i.e kind of a ration ticket), otherwise they are fined around 200 EUR (which I guess is expensive for Italians)
- Positive tested persons who still go outside are jailed
If this is true, i would not be surprised that it is extended to the rest of Europe within 10 daysā¦
Anyway, i am working from home since last week as well. And not taking any public transportation for the very very few occasions where i need to go outside.
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I find that people here are very good at following the rules, but equally good at doing the obviously wrong thing, just because āitās not forbiddenā, like smoking at the tram stop when itās raining and I am there with my baby. I hope they enforce stronger restrictions ASAP, I have heard there will be a communication this afternoon.
Sure, nothing wrong with that, at least until many people have the same idea and your deserted place becomes crowded. Funny how some people in Italy never exercised and now have to go train for a marathonā¦
In Poland, police checks up on Quarantined people. If youāre not at home => 5000 PLN ticket (as harsh as 5000 CHF would be here).
My gf cannot work from home and public transport is her only way to get to work. Plus, she has contact with 20 patients per day. So I guess, no matter what I do, I will catch the damned thing anyway. But of course, in the game of probability, I ever so slightly reduce the risk (for myself and others) by staying home.
No countries that shows a slow down has reached that state (thankfully considering the number of fatalities), they are all trying to contain things. Relying on herd immunity means giving up on minimizing fatalities, if weāre ok with losing 1%+ of population then fine (and maybe much more if health system cracks like it starts doing in some places like Italy or France).
Look at what it can do to even young/healthy people: https://twitter.com/Narrowthefield/status/1238969032528855041?s=09
Sure when we reach majority of population, it wonāt be exponential (it obviously canāt be exponential forever), but weāre not there yet.
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Thatās exactly what I told my friend yesterday. The strategy of UK seems very dangerous indeed. He said then, jokingly, that the best survival strategy is to begin in a country with lockdown, then move to a country with herd immunity, once it has been obtained (probably at a cost of many lives).