Coronavirus: when do we reach the bottom of the dip?

Fact: S&P 500 has only been down 10% in a single week five times since WWII;
October 1987
April 2000
September 2001
October 2008
February 2020

Is this the next big crash?

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Yes we are all going to die :wink:

U.S. indices are back to where they were 4-6 months ago - at already sky-high valuations.
Economic prospects should be considerably worse than these couple months ago.
So has the potential to go much lower.

You can say what you want: I will be “timing the market” in the short term (by holding off purchasing stocks till I feel comfortable with it)

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Now…

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And it’s beautiful! :smiley:

P.S. I love the atmosphere here - everyone is just optimistic, excited and awaiting to buy more and more, rather than panicking and selling as the general public. :ok_hand:
Proud of all of us haha

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So last Thursday VTI traded at 172.50 and today, 7 days later it ended the day at 151.46. That’s -12.2% in a week. Already today I was waiting until 15:30 to check Yahoo Finance and tomorrow it will be exciting as well. Wonder what should I do now: wait a few more days or buy now…

But I have to say I took this drop without much stress, I guess mostly because a big chunk of my capital is only waiting to be invested. I guess, easy come, easy go. After this “huge” drop we are at the level we’ve been only a few months ago.

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I invested my bonus Friday last week, lol. This week was a real test for me.

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In 2008 my assets crashed like a sack of potatoes falling from the sky. I survived it, and recovered nicely. What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger, and if you buy at lower prices during the dip, it even makes you richer.

I think we’ll see prices drop lower still. Newspapers are full of new infections popping up all over Europe.

My question now is, has this the potential to trigger a bigger crisis? Say that this slows down the economy to the point where some companies go bankrupt, and then this lurking debt problem escalates?

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If you’ve engaged in emotion-less buying with regular purchases every month, you can apply the same to buying dips. I buy at -10% drop. Already bought the first batch. Will buy again if it drops -20%. Impossible to guess how low will it go.

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The period 2000-2003 was not bad as well (Enron, Worldcom; here: Swissair). Plus the Sept. 11 attack was the ideal external event for companies to explain issues that were already existing before, but successfully put under the carpet through accounting tricks. Expect now lots of “it’s because of the virus”.

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For some of them the 1000$ are (were) the margin account…

Rebalancing from safe assets (gold) and margin.

I like that everyone is more concerned about his assets or missing out an opportunity than the corona virus itself ;-). Let‘s see maybe we see soon a thread how to protect against the corona virus but I feel that people in here are way to rational :blush:. And to contribute to the thread, corona numbers in China started to flatten out, so if it does not change, there should be no increase in new infections, in Europe it‘s still increasing because it simply has just started. The mortality rate in Europe though is much smaller.

I like very much @Zerte2 opinion, maybe the Corona virus was just poking into a sleeping bubble of debts. I at least will expect a drop by 50-60% (no reason for that it’s just mental preparation) and will invest again when it drops by another 10%.

I am! The more it goes down the less I care :open_mouth:

This is a very interesting psychological experiment for me. Didn’t expext to react that way.

Let us know when the phone stops ringing. Then let’s go all in here:
https://screener.fidelity.com/ftgw/etf/goto/snapshot/portfolioComposition.jhtml?symbols=FNGU

Unless it rings even harder, then this
https://screener.fidelity.com/ftgw/etf/goto/snapshot/snapshot.jhtml?symbols=FNGD
:wink:

Haha yes the reverse could be intense too…
But… Twitter and Tesla as top 2 holdings with 25%? No thanks :smiley:

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It’s not (only) matter of rationality, but age. If most of us were 70+ with heart attacks and diabetes, I assure you, we would discuss how to protect ourselves from the virus.

PS. Yesterday at The Economist I’ve seen article saying that 25-75% of the global population could get infected. If that would be the case, God forbid, some of you should start saying goodbye to your grandparents and/or parents.

And interestingly, it seems that many older people are saying it’s all exaggerated and overblown. My parents and friends’ parents are all saying that “bah, we’ve seen worse”.

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Friend of my GF got infected in Basel, her whole family is in isolation right now.

This might be huge…

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VWRL down ~13% so far this week in CHF terms. Similar for most major indices… getting scary in the markets.

I started making regular purchases about 1 year ago exactly and this week is the first time my total gain/loss went negative. Important psychological milestone. For me, this is a good test so far and I’ve been sticking to my plan of doubling down at -6% and -12%… -18% here we come… Of course the amount of cash I can reasonably deploy will not be so great anymore when we fly past these points too quickly.

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