Just want to note here that this guy is far from an authority on such a question and his stances on virology and vaccination safety are pretty fringe. All other virologists and epidemiologists I read so far are of the opinion that vaccination will decrease rates of new variants. (Which is also somewhat common sense.)
6 Likes
âVanden Bossche received his DVM from the University of Ghent, Belgium, and his PhD degree in Virology from the University of Hohenheim, Germany. He held adjunct faculty appointments at universities in Belgium and Germany. After his career in Academia, Geert joined several vaccine companies (GSK Biologicals, Novartis Vaccines, Solvay Biologicals) to serve various roles in vaccine R&D as well as in late vaccine development. Geert then moved on to join the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundationâs GH Discovery team as SPO and later on to work with GAVI as Senior Ebola Program Manager; he subsequently joined the German Center for Infection Research as Head of the Vaccine Development Office. Geert is now primarily serving as a Biotech/ Vaccine consultant while also conducting his own research on NK cell-based vaccines. His work is driven by a relentless passion to translate scientific breakthrough findings into competitive vaccine products. As a creative thinker, innovator, entrepreneur and visionary, Geert has been invited to speak at multiple international congresses.â
LOL⊠still pretty impressive CV of âthis guyâ.
I donât really want to go into credentialism, but this is really not that impressive (DVM = Veterinary Doctor, University of Hoffenheim is a second class university with very small departement in virology).
Because my main point is that itâs just one guy with a contrarian view. All Iâve read of him doesnât convince me of anything and Iâm not going to spend anymore time engaging with his view. Just basic epistemic hygiene.
7 Likes
6 posts were merged into an existing topic: Security tips on holding a large crypto position
These kind of discussions is something I really would like to see more. Discussion with Bret Weinstein and Heather Heying about the video I posted above around the âImmune Escapeâ.
This discussion is not about pro or contra vaccination, but more they are discussing each argument of Vanden Bosche, if this might be false or true or we just donât know yet.
2 Likes
Today VT reached 100 USD. Who would have thought a year ago? (some did in this thread) Politics and the tradegy for many people aside, this forum helped me to stay the course and even accelerate my buyings (although I admit this was market timing 
) during the sharp correction. After many fails with individual stock picking, the boglehead, mustachian and frugal life- and investing style I am finally better off financially and for this I want to thank the community! Without you I would have probably sold some assets, certainly I wouldnt have bought new ones. It is very interessting to read through the threat with todays knowledge. We should print this and sell as a book for behavioral finance lessons stay healthy everyone and nobody knows nothing
14 Likes
Yes indeed, this time it paid off.
Just donât draw any conclusions for future expectations based on a once-in-a-lifetime (or indeed history) drop and surge such as this one.
I am not strongly convinced we got rid of the âbear eventâ for the coming decade. 
But Iâm a cautious character in general.
2 Likes
No 
. This will just mean the summer will have heavy restrictions still.
3 Likes
I agree with you. Loosening know will mean an explosion of the case number in the next 2-3 weeks and a new lockdown at the end of May or JuneâŠ
2 Likes
and this will be the death for loads of restaurant and other businesses
That is what people want. They say it. We open even if 4 out of 5 rules are broken.
They must do that and since they are polite, they wont even say later this summer âI told you soââŠ
The only excuse is that so many rules are not followed anyway. Go check what happens at the borders, for example. Also explain me why you can go to mass but not to the cinema.
I think at the end no one will care as long as there is some space left at the hospitals.
6 Likes
I am a bit mitigatedâŠ
In one hand, I am happy to know that I will have the opportunity to do my crossfit inside of my club and do some halterophily exercices instead of doing workout outside with them and to know that it will be possible to drink something outside if bar and restaurant will accept to open with this condition, and in the other hand, I think it is not a good idea to open more widely before summer as I expected that we will face a third wave because of thatâŠ
I hope I will not be right and that everything will get better now.
That one is already âhappeningâ now, I mean the numbers keep steadily rising for the past month or more.
Interesting decision!
I selfishly welcome it for the gym, but letâs see what it means long term.
It might be OK if they manage to accelerate the vaccinations.
2 Likes
So we will facing a tsunami for the third one 
?
The 3rd might be worse than the 2nd one, so yes. Youâre aware that in the UK people in their 40s occupy the ICU-beds? weâre nowhere near vaccinating that age group. And theyâll occupy the beds longer
To do a mistake once is acceptable. To repeat is a plain stupidity.
2 Likes
3 million people will be fully vaccinated and 3 million will already have their 1st shot by end of july. Iâm optimistic.
1 Like
The average infection causes around 70â000 chf in damages. Even with pretty conservative assumptions and with the risk group vaccinated. [1]
Opening up now, when the cases are already rising is a recipe for disaster and will cost us much more than the any damage that the light measures we had caused. In one or two month infection will cause a billion in damages every day.
[1]
Damage QALY
Assumptions:
0.2% Deaths, 1 QALY damage for 30 years
1% disability, 0.3 QALY damage for 30 years
1.5% LongCovid, 0.15 QALY damage for 15 years
22.5% mild LongCovid 0.1 QALY damage for 6 months
50% sick, 0.5 QALY damage for 2 weeks
Total 0.2 QALY
Damage for the economy
Assumptions:
0.2% Death, no damage
1% disability, 100% loss of productivity for 25 years
1.5% LongCovid, 50% loss of productivity for 15 years
22.5% mild LongCovid 20% loss of productivity for 6 months
75% sick/isolation, 75% loss of productivity for2 weeks
Total ~40% loss of productivity of one year
A QALY is around 200â000 chf worth. 0.2 QALY are around 40â000 chf in damages. 40% of the current GDP per capita is 30â000 chf, giving an average damage of 70â000 chf per infection.
7 Likes