Coronavirus: when do we reach the bottom of the dip?

Unfortunately I see no progress on this front. My US work colleagues mostly got their first shots already while here they’re not even at the 60 year olds… all the pharma companies are headquartered here but seem to rather prefer other countries for deliveries…

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It’s pretty puzzling what they just did. I could imagine just allowing more activities outside since we know the risk is much lower and the weather is getting nicer (e.g. terraces). Even tho the cases are rising all over the place, so it’s still a risky move.

But indoor activities like movie theaters and gyms? Couldn’t we keep them closed a few more months (if vaccines are truly on their way).

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There is no single confirmed infection case in a gym since March 2020.

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Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. There have been confirmed gym clusters in other countries (one of them being Hong Kong)

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This is evidently a wrong statement:

The contact tracing in Switzerland just isn’t good enough to catch such events.

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Let’s not forget the primary goals of the Bundersrat: survive. They want to survive and have a job and don’t get executed. Their secondary goal is to not fill hospitals. Having said that you might understand that they had to do this way. Did anyone read what happened in St. Gallen? The police arrested 60 people and had to let them go, just because they were afraid of cause more damage. See? Legally arrested and illegally let go. Just to say that even the police had to bow.

Also people generally don’t care. Check the vaccination centers that closed during easter. Ferientage are more important than vaccinations.

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Physical inactivity is associated with a higher risk for severe COVID-19 outcomes. Patients with COVID-19 who were consistently inactive had a greater risk of hospitalisation (OR 2.26; 95% CI 1.81 to 2.83), admission to the ICU (OR 1.73; 95% CI 1.18 to 2.55) and death (OR 2.49; 95% CI 1.33 to 4.67) due to COVID-19 than patients who were consistently meeting physical activity guidelines. Patients who were consistently inactive also had a greater risk of hospitalisation (OR 1.20; 95% CI 1.10 to 1.32), admission to the ICU (OR 1.10; 95% CI 0.93 to 1.29) and death (OR 1.32; 95% CI 1.09 to 1.60) due to COVID-19 than patients who were doing some physical activity.

https://t.co/35kwWBkCDG?amp=1

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Well, no one stops you from doing exercise outside or with your body weight. Limited mindset if you need a gym to care about your physcial health

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Yes, I suspect that politicians are following bad incentives.

The most glaring example would be how much vaccines they (didn’t) order, what vaccine deals they didn’t take, resp. what price they weren’t willing to pay. My best guess is that they feared a backlash like “BR ordered twice as many vaccines as we could ever need.” or “Switzerland paid twice as much for vaccine as the UK.” more than they feared "Switzerland is kinda slow with the vaccines, many countries are faster but many are also slower. shrug ".

But if my suspicion is true, I still don’t get it. A quick vaccination campaign seems like something so important, that you should be willing to risk your political life over it. Heck, making the right decision, no matter what, in a moment like this is the only reason I’d ever want to become a politician.

What about people recovering from an injury or operation?

We‘re talking politics here where the main aim is to keep your spot in the government

What about people that get infected from a gymcluster via contact to one of the gym goers?

Physiotherapy was open.

I understand being personally frustrated with some of the measures (I’d like to Boulder, for example). But one has to be careful not to let ones narrow own interest get in the way of thinking clearly about the big picture.

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I’ve had no issues for doing my physiotherapy. That said wouldn’t have minded if it had been outdoor.

And I’m not saying we shouldn’t open gym eventually, it just seems very shortsighted when we’re in an exponential growth (it’s very likely that more indoor activities will increase R further).

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Disclaimer: I have not done any online research and I am not making any claims, just some loose thoughts.

I’ve recently been to Rapperswil on a sunny day. The main square was full of people. Many restaurants had take away open, with people lining up to order. They were standing next to each other, passing each other, but they were not allowed to take a seat and eat in a civilized manner. Instead, they took their food to the steps by the lake and ate on the floor. Let’s end this nonsense…

Anyone can tell me how the situation looks in countries that have high vaccination rates, like Israel, UK? The cases/deaths going down? Does the vaccine seem to be working? Any real world proofs on the efficacy of vaccines? Is there a chance that they will produce long-lasting immunity, or are we going to have to get a jab twice a year from now on?

And one more mystery I see posted from time to time: some places have looser mask regulations (Texas, Florida, Sweden, from the top of my head), others stay strict. Yet the infection data does not follow the logic. What gives? How to explain this?

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Also note that Sweden is notoriously slow at reporting deaths.

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OK, so you mean Sweden is a bad example. As I wrote, I didn’t fact-check what I read. Sadly there is a lot of incorrect stuff being written, so I take it with reservation.

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I’ll take that (getting a jab twice a year) for the rest of my life ANY GIVEN DAY! if that means no lockdowns. If we can get there by end 2021 / mid 2022, all the more reason to be optimistic.

We’ve got to work with what we can and when we can have over the next few years, not with what was before covid!

Yes it does work, you can see it in the swiss curves by age group, but also https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1380512731456016385 has a bunch of graph showing effectiveness in the vaccinated population.

Israel is looking very good now that a large fraction has had at least one dose: https://twitter.com/segal_eran/status/1373876560030208006

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I think we could have said the same thing at any point in the pandemics, there are a lot of factors deciding whether a surge takes place. (E.g. why Italy in the first wave but not eastern europe, why is India or Brazil experiencing a new wave now, etc.)

This shouldn’t mean that it’s the right time to loosen measures when the surge is happening tho :slight_smile:

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