Exactly, though the probability still exists and is way more than what can be considered as quasi null (like the probability to get hit by lightning…which still is superior to zero )
The problem with low probability/incidence applied to large population is that the human brain is not wired to apprehend huge numbers. Hence the covid insatisfaction, the public lottery system and the low-percentage/high-numerical fees offered by banks !
So it might just be possible that the parliament will overrule the federal council and open up restaurants in three weeks, regardless of the epidemiological situation.
I get that people are tired… but damn! Will they never learn?
Bonus: they want to forbid the scientific taskforce to state their opinion publicly. Shutting up scientists because they are the ones bringing up the inconvenient truth? Are we now Brazil or what?
The decision to gag scientists is indeed bizarre. But to me it’s unclear what our primary objective is. Do we aim to minimize covid cases, covid deaths, all deaths, maximize the lifespan of the entire population, or use a complex economic equation that assigns a certain value to a human life?
Recently I posted a chart that has shown that in Poland 480k people died instead of 400k. But it’s unclear if these 80k excess deaths were undocumented covid, or a result of healthcare system shifting attention to covid and leaving other diseases untreated or even undiagnosed?
Also, there’s a high chance that this virus is seasonal and current vaccine will only work for the strain of the virus we have right now, but the next season we will need to get another shot, just like with the regular flu. So I wonder at which point are we going to decide that it’s safe enough to go back to normal.
Diclaimer: please treat this post as loud thinking and be gentle if I’m asking stuff where the answer is clear and documented
Once a yearly shot is available I guess we can definitely call it over. Having the first one will certainly be a good step forward.
One positive is that the new strains that have been popping up until now are not wildly different from the original one as shown by the fact that some vaccines are at least partially effective against them. So there’s a chance vaccines (or your own antibodies) will give partial protection in the future, but this is pure speculation and wishful thinking on my part.
If I understand it right at the moment it’s just a proposition from the economic commission and will need to be voted by the parliament to come into effect, can anyone confirm this is how it works?
They‘re related to the current health crisis. Either covid, mental problems related (job lost, business lost, etc), unable to do operation (delayed because of limited capacity), not going to a doctor because of fear.
So goal should be very low numbers and always possible to track infection back to source.
This is not true. Pfizer also works for the UK and South African variants.
That’s not what I meant. I meant that given enough time (like, a year?), the virus will mutate to be resistant to the current vaccine, just like it is with the flu.
No one knows. But of course we should be ready for that and prepare new vaccines, just like the flu. A lot of companies are already working on new formulations to better address the new variants.
Everything will slowly open.
The goal of the BAG has been already said even if they don’t tell you directly (anymore?) lessen the burden on the hospital. That’s it. Just that. It could mean that the next variant will kill you in 10 seconds or that is so weak that you just stay at home. It’s the same for them.
So now watch hospital numbers. Once they stay low enough, everything will open. It doesn’t matter (to them) if people still dies.
As it has happened with many other diseases. The flu and other infectious diseases also have an annual death toll. Just think how many people die on the road: should we forbid driving?
I think this should be the goal: keeping hospital capacity in check, making sure that every sick person is treated.
This is very difficult to do as there is almost no immunity compared to seasonal viruses that have been around for decades. Exponential growth and being unable to track infections makes it very difficult.
In Spring 2020, if you were smart you bought gym equipment, a home office desk and chair, etc.
It looks a lot like vaccines will normalise life to a large extent sometime this summer. What’s the smart thing to do now, for the coming loosening of measures?
Maybe something like buying your train tickets and hotel now for your summer holidays, as long as prizes are covid-adjusted?
When listening to this long interview, it seems that we all have a very long way to go. Lots of information about infections, vaccines, cycle of pandemics and why we might see more and more mutations with new strings.
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