Coronavirus: when do we reach the bottom of the dip?

Last I looked, even with measures in place, the new variant was doubling every week or so in CH.
https://www.covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiologic/virus-variants

So while at a high level the cases seem to go down, that’s only an illusion, it’s like a pandemic within the pandemic. UK had to lock down much harder to stop it.
(the good new is that it’s stoppable per UK, the bad news is that it’s likely we might lock down further once the new variants fully take over).

edit: given we’re at 60% I’d expect the new variant to start having a visible impact (cases growing again) in 1-2 weeks. This will likely be regional at the start (only some cantons at first, similar to what’s happening in France).

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Thanks for those insights. @nabalzbhf That’s actually a neat site, I never looked on admin.ch websites because they used to be awful with data aggregation/presentation.

The last point is what I’m mostly struggling with.
From personal experience I’d guess that a large part of the population is incedibly fed up with the situation and the government. So, I’m with the both of you, that from an epidemiological perspective it’s too early but I also fear the consequences of prolonging the lockdown would have on a societal level (distrust in government and science, rise of extremist political views).
I find it hard to weigh those different considerations against each other…


Some examples of things I experienced:

  • Probably more than half the people I discussed this with did not agree with “increasing measures while the case numbers are dropping”. When I talked about the new variants and how this can lead to a temporary illusion of everything being fine, I get some nods but I don’t think it changed anything in their mind.
  • My father is a head teacher and he gets quite some complaints and ludicrous legal threats because of the covid-measures in class rooms.
  • Sometimes I get the feeling that the dissent with the government is hidden because of it not being socially acceptable. Similar to the big gap between public and private opinion about immigration and Islam 10-15 years ago. You have to push people to reveal their thoughts before they tell you about the “stupid federal councilors”. So I see quite some possibility of this simmering on without no apparent signs and then suddenly bursting in politics.

The point is that the government has done loads of mistakes and lost the people on the way. I for one don‘t trust this government.

Shutdown should have happened in october and not december/january less infected and dead and I‘m certain that the shutdown would not have been that long and thereofe cheaper. More money should have been spent buying more vaccine. There was always going to delivery / approval problems. Just compare vaccine cost to what all unemployment and beneifts cost

Now to go foreward: It‘s to early to reopen. Messaging is contradicting (15 people outside, but minimize your contacts). I for one follow my own guidelines and have my contacts to my household only (and there only limited).

IMO: Everyone should have a chance to get fully vaccinated before everything reopens.

And people don‘t understand the longterm effects on organs this will have and future health costs

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Yeah, I’m still angry at Daniel Koch and at the media glorifying him, when it was quite clear pretty early on that he’s likely wrong about lot of things (severity, masks, children).

I’d say your quote captures the opinion of most of the people I know with a (broadly) academic background. But the opposite is true for the people who are outside my immediate bubble (non-academics, living outside large cities).

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If everyone just followed the rules properly for a month this would all be over. But there‘s loads of people that find their freedom taken away from them, people that believe conspiracy theories or that it‘s just a flu.

and then we have a selfish society at our hands where it‘s only the „me“ that counts. No compassion

Just watched this: Reporter - Corona-Impfung – Unheil oder Segen? - Play SRF

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It’s unfortunately hard to explain and not intuitive for people. IMO unrestricting while we have exponential growth (even if small) is rarely a good idea.

That said the only winning strategy is 0 covid (or high enough vaccination leading to it), but Europe is both too integrated and incapable to coordinate for it to work.

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Hey guys, I’m about to go on holiday and since the situation is what it is I have not planned anything. I want to go on a road trip and so far I know that for example in Poland, if you arrive by plane (or other means of public transport), you need to go into a 10-day quarantine, but by car you don’t need to. Italy, France, Croatia require PCR tests, but I’m not sure if there are any checks on the border or only at the airports. Any experience or tips? Has anyone crossed the border to Germany / Italy / France in the recent days? What are the rules there?

A PCR test costs around 200 CHF and then you have to wait hours for the results (at Zurich Airport there is an express service, but normally you wait 24-48 hours!). And the countries that require the test, usually want it to be not older than 48-72 hours. So if I wanted to go to Croatia after getting a PCR result, that would be a sporty ride to reach the border before the time runs out.

What I find absurd is that in Poland a PCR test can absolve you from the quarantine, but of course you do the test before you fly.

You‘d need to quarantine in Switzerland when you come back from Poland and have a negative test as well (or does test only apply for flights?). Not worth the trouble at the moment IMO.

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That’s not true… Poland is not on the quarantine list. Where did you get this info???

But I’m not planning to go to Poland, it’s cold and dreary in March.

You take the test on the morning of the day before your trip.
Results arrive by email either on the same day (most likely) or latest the next one (worst case) - while you are on the way.
There is no hard feat in fact.
I am doing that on Saturday.

And the prices should be below 150chf, not 200.
Shop around a bit if you got 200 quoted.
I do it at Rothen labs and it’s around 140 afairecall.

Came back from my vacation yesterday with a negative PCR test (despite obvious symptoms). I even did an additional antigen-test to be sure with the same result. As I feel even more sick today (lungs started feeling heavy, breathing is more difficult) I went to the local hospital and made another PCR test. Positive.

Luckily I bought enough food for a whole week.

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Oh crap, good luck mate!
Hope you are not in the risk group.

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I suspected that I was infected with the corona virus. The local doctor suggested that I should still leave the country and check again in Switzerland if I don’t get better. At least all the other symptoms are going away (fever, headache, muscle pain, shivering and insomnia). The lung thing actually made me start worrying about my health, but the doctor said today that oxygen levels are still good and blood work isn’t showing anything out of the ordinary.

Maybe travelling to Eastern Europe wasn’t such a great idea.

Sorry to hear that, where did you go? Any idea how you contracted it?

I decided I will stay in Switz, too much hassle with the test and uncertainty. Just gonna drive around the country.

Get well @Cortana! You’re a young sporty guy, I hope you can deal with it quickly.

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Bosnia. Don’t really know. I wore mostly a FFP2 mask, so I was rather surprised. I think I’m going to be fine by end of next week. @Bojack I always assumed that I will get infected at some point in the future if I don’t get vaccinated before. Just didn’t expect those symptoms as the numbers make you think that only 50+ people are really affected by it.

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And why is that? You think you’re unlucky? Btw I heard it’s really hard to breathe in the ffp2 mask.

I guess it’s very individual. I know some professional sports people who had heavy symptoms. My grandma who is almost 90 and moves on a wheelchair went through it quickly. For my mom it took 1 month…

That‘s a huge problem, a lot of people thinking that.

Get well soon and hopefully no longterm health issues!

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Always assumed that as a highly active person you’re less likely to get symptoms at all. I mean I’m in my very late 20s, do sports, never drink alcohol and sugar drinks, never smoked and very rarely sick.

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Hope you get well soon mate. Keep us posted.