In USA the current wave is led by states like California, Texas & Florida, where the total cases per million are not that high. But in New York & New Jersey it’s already much lower. So it’s not one big wave, but a collection of smaller waves, shifted in time. (see chart #1)
Where do you see an uptick in new cases in UK, ES & IT? The chart #2 below does not show it.
On the global scale, the first point applies. Peak deaths in Europe & USA are behind us, now it’s Latin America & India, where the disease hit later. (chart #3)
I’m having a really hard time understanding the markets in this crisis, both the ups and downs. To me, it seems highly delusional and over-optimistic but what I think bears no effect on the market. It may have the situation figured out and priced in things I haven’t taken into consideration or, like Will E. Coyote crossing a ravine by not looking at it, it may be deluding itself through this all and, unlike what usually happens to Will E., it may very well work.
The bottom line, to me, is that I don’t know and don’t understand. It doesn’t matter if the market is smarter or dumber than I am, it can remain irrational* longer than I can remain solvent. I think that’s part of the reason why several people are “rooting” for a downturn: it would give us the feeling that we understand what’s happening. Right now, everything may very well be completely rational, but I don’t understand it, one bit. People talking of a “second wave” of the virus don’t help: the first wave would have needed to go away at some point for there to be a second one.
*“irrational” being here defined as “behaving in a different way than what I would expect it to”. It is a totally self-centered and self-delusional way to look at it but it helps me to put into words my lack of understanding of what’s happening in the markets.
Edit: for the records: I still think we’re going to look down, see the ravine and have a big drop at some point. I’m not taking any bet as to when (could be happening right now).
Genuine question: what if the market has it figured out, the smart money is on the verge and ready to get out but greed runs rampant and they’re trying to lock in some more gains?
That’s the problem I have with the “already priced in” way of seeing things: correctly valuing stocks doesn’t mean “the market” can’t strategize on the longer term and define future expected triggers as the “when” on when it’ll price in already expected events. Uncertainty is also priced in. Right now, my understanding is that there is a lot of it.
Edit: this, of course, still means that I can’t predict the market and am better off riding it out.
To me it looks like the daily new cases are going higher and higher though. Close to 200k per day now. If we look only at EU: In Switzerland, today’s number is the highest since mid May, in the Balkans region the situation is getting notably worse, in UK not getting better and still a big number. The important factor is that it’s very easily transmissible. Another factor is that it was getting down because of the measures. Now there are no more “hard” measures.
OMS: 30 pays européens ont vu augmenter le nombre de nouveaux cas au cours des deux dernières semaines, explique l’organisation.
Globally, I think it’s getting worse and maybe I’m overly dramatic, but maybe the market is very optimistic.
It’s “funny” how people already forgot who was responsible for all this. Winnie should free up some of his USD reserves and pay up all the world for the damage done by his people.
So Chesapeake Energy (fracking co.) has filed for bankruptcy (crazy debt, low oil price). From a stock price of >$5000 (market cap >10B) a few years ago to (almost) zero. I remember so many articles about how fab they are on Motley Fool the past years.
I wonder if this is a small Lehman Brothers moment for the oil industry at least?
This time there should be enough masks for a light lockdown if people behave…
Having seen some zones near lakes and rivers, I’d say the lockdown will not be that light…
My grandfather and the daughter of my brother are both in the hospital right now due to breathing problems. They are staying overnight till the results are out.
It seems that it’s far from over. Slowly getting the expectations that we will have an explosion of new cases soon.
The government will also neither want to enforce a second lockdown, nor would they be able to enforce one. Having seen how “cooperative” people have been the first time around.
Luckily my grandfather arrived in Switzerland today (from Eastern Europe), so is taken care of right now. Brother is living here. I was close to her last weekend. My girlfriend too. I hope both tests are negative.
I just don’t see a 2nd lockdown. This would crush the economy.
I have a feeling that most people still don’t take the virus threat too seriously by themselves. And unless the authorities are strict with masks in all trains/supermarkets (all indoors), it’s inevitable that the virus will keep spreading.
Or maybe it’s just me being super cautious and possibly paranoid. As parents of 8 weeks old baby, we have essentially been at home since early March except for visits to hospitals, doctors, supermarket.
I needed to take a bus in last week (first time in 3 months) and I was the only person wearing mask. Felt like 2019!
By reading and partipating to this forum, you confirm you have read and agree with the disclaimer presented on http://www.mustachianpost.com/
En lisant et participant à ce forum, tu confirmes avoir lu et être d'accord avec l'avis de dégagement de responsabilité présenté sur http://www.mustachianpost.com/fr/
Durch das Lesen und die Teilnahme an diesem Forum bestätigst du, dass du den auf http://www.mustachianpost.com/de/ dargestellten Haftungsausschluss gelesen hast und damit einverstanden bist.
