I’m not even thinking about it. Deviating from my monthly plan would just cause me undue stress. When should I decrease my investment? By how much? Until when? — even a slight deviation adds significantly more complexity. I once thought the majority of this forum invested in regular installments, which seems more conducive to “staying the course”… but I’m gradually starting to realise that this is not the case, and that a significant portion (if not the majority) much prefer trying to time the market. Presumably they weren’t investing in 2008, so this will be a real learning for them…
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Now you really surprised me. What happened to letting it ride? A crisis is an opportunity for companies to restructure. We experience constant, slow improvements in work efficiency, so some workers just stick around, having fewer and fewer responsibilities. The workers who have been let go will have a hard time, they will have to find roles which will make them productive again. But many of them were not productive anymore, they were just getting paid for sticking around.
If you sell, you will have to constantly look out for the moment to invest again. Economic development is a blend of S curves, each caused by another innovation. Do you know when the next world-changing innovation arrives? Will it be self-driving cars, efficient batteries or solar panels, or something completely different?
What gives you the reason to believe that you’re ahead of the curve on this one?
What do you know that other people don’t know? VIX is going down, so seems like the market becomes more and more certain about the long term direction (ok still at 40 tough).
A lot of people will come back after Easter with thought like this, which is why I wont be surprised a big red day early next week. This is the day when I’ll buy some stock in Dufry ;-).
The stock market is not an expression of today’s economy or even tomorrow’s economy. It looks years ahead. For now, the world’s central banks have managed to reinstate confidence that when all this is over, economic growth and jobs will come back. Only if they fail or the confidence wanes is when we get in trouble.
@nabalzbhf
VIX is a measure of pace, not direction so I wouldn’t base too much faith in this.
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I would say the stock market price is a weighted average of investment horizons of all market participants. For some it’s 1 day, for some 1 year, for some 30 years. Where the average lies is up to debate, but I would also expect we’re talking about years.
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Ray Dalio seems pretty bearish even if what he says needs to be weighted with the fact that he wants capitalism to be reformed…
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He’ll probably tell whatever story will attract more people to his hedge fund.
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Well, I know that we may have a 1929-like depression that will take a decade to recover from. I’m not sure what other people know, but looking at current stocks rally make me think they know shit. In any case, I started thinking that I might need more money in couple of years to buy a property in Poland. I don’t want to wait a decade to get back to the starting point.
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Well then I would go allin SPXU if I were you 
This terrible advice because as Keynes said in the 1930s: “ Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”
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If you need the money in a couple of years it should probably not be in stocks today, regardless of the current situation.
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This. I would never invest money I’ll need within the next 10 years (apart from being retired and withdrawing it).
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That’s true. My situation has changed a little bit since I started investing. 4 years ago I wasn’t planning buying a property, currently it’s different - I might need it in couple of years.
Me personally (in your situation) would wait it out and sell everything what you’ll need for the property as soon as SP500 is at 3386+ again.
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*OPEC+ STRIKES HISTORIC DEAL TO CUT OIL OUTPUT AND END PRICE WAR
I guess this is one thing less to worry about this week.
@1000000CHF I sold a property in Poland one year ago exactly. In currency exchange alone until now, I would have lost ~15% if i didn’t convert it all from PLN to CHF on the spot.
If you are sure about this plan, perhaps now is actually a good moment to start buying PLN. The property prices are also very likely to drop in following months.
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A bit off topic but the Thank-You from the British Prime Minister to his nurse from Portugal shortly after the brexit is an interesting aspect of this crisis.
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oh please… Switzerland is not in the EU and still has more immigrants than any other country in the EU. I don’t think Brexitters were all against immigrants, but they wanted to be able to decide who gets to stay and who not.
Neither do I. But to be fair, they were portrayed as such, as being xenophobic and anti-immigration more than enough by (parts of) the media.
Switzerland IS in the EU. Just like Liechtenstein, Norway and Iceland. With the billateral treaties it is the same. Our cohesion billions are a net contribution to the budget of the EU except we are not in the budget. We take all their consumer laws. It is called theater.
Put in slightly different words, Switzerland is not EVEN in the EU and still CANNOT decide who gets to come in and who not (from the EU, more or less)!
UK can now selective about EU citizens and EU can be selective about UK companies. Isn’t that a Win-Win?
I read somewhere that 50% of Swiss exports go to EU. You wanna pick a fight with the hand that feeds you? Or pay the cohesion funds, follow some rules and stay on top of your game. No country has ‘absolute’ sovereignty. To have what you want, you need to make some choices and compromises. Switzerland has been doing that quite well in that regard.
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