Coronavirus: when do we reach the bottom of the dip?

What’s great in it? He boasts about “intelligent commentary” in the very opening sentences. This is the point where you know this is going to be as biased as it gets.

He grew up in South Africa as a poor white guy, where he witnessed racism on both sides. Then he moved to Shenzhen, China and got married to a Chinese woman. At first, his videos were defending China and rebutting the bad things you hear about it. But recently he has grown more and more critical, to the point that he had to flee the country and move to LA. I find that he is very honest and insightful in his videos, and he has first hand experience, “patrolling” the Chinese streets for some 12 years, on foot and on motorcycle, lurking into ever corner and interacting with people.

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Not surprising I guess? Japanese and Chinese people are known to be the most racist people in the world?

For me this video is a short form of many aspects of this crisis that brought a new perspective. Before this crisis I knew that China did not respect the right of its own citizens but I was ready to accept it because the path to democracy is long and because China never really interfered outside of its borders. With this crisis the game changed completely. The crisis is all over the world, China is rewriting the story and trying to change its own mistake to a strategic advantage.

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This is not what happened. The smearing campaign did not start in China or any other asian or european country. It started in the White House with the orange idiot in chief trying to use the crisis to his political advantage.

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You sound like a chinese troll. The Chinese were covering up the virus, they arrested the doctor, who warned about it in december, and later died of covid-19 while treating the patients. They influenced the WHO, who were for a long time saying there is nothing to worry about and there is no need to ban travel. You can’t blame Trump for this.

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This says more about the people who use the term “chinese troll” then about me. Perhaps you’ve heard or used the term “russian troll” on your own backyard far too often to see that.

Say what you want, but the west had much more time to react and still got caught with their pants down, even though they had a huge head start.

You’re not going to drag me into a discusiion about the viruses’ nationality.

I was myself the first to get caught the pants down.
The death toll in China is 2 casualties per million people. This simply does not look like a dangerous virus. Today we see 1000 casualties per million people in Tessin, 500 times more than China annonced. I can admit that an epidemic is a non linear process and that you have local differences but to this point it is unbelievable. Western countries had two month to get ready based on the questionable information they got from China.

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I’d never heard/seen this guy before & watched or shall I say scanned (they’re pretty long) through some of his videos. My take on this guy is a Vlogger from SA living in China who started exposing some “scams” in China, taxi-drivers and fake goods markets, nothing particularly spectacular (taxi-drivers are scammy in most places etc.) Nevertheless the Chinese authorities probably took offence after a while (yes, saving face is important), paid him a visit & told him to stop. He didn’t, so they kicked this foreigner out. Now he has a grudge to settle plus he can generate clicks on his video with his Trump-tainted opinions & good knowledge about China.
I also believe the big-time smearing started in the White House & now it’s tit-for-tat.

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In China it was contained in a “small part” of the country so you can’t divide the deaths by the whole population. And how about South Korea, 4 deaths per million. Also unbelievable / a cover-up?
The leader of the #1 western nation was still calling it “less harmless than the flu, get back to work, oh and the markets will be fine” in mid-March, with hundreds sick in the US. Imagine trying to convince him otherwise out of China, in January.

Where it is difficult to believe for me is that the virus disseminated all over the world but China managed to protect most of the country.
Three south-east Asia countries did really fine: Japan, Singapore and South Korea.
Japan has ~1 death per million people. However Japan is on an exponential growth since January without sign of slowing down and it will be interesting to see what happens the next 30 days. The same for Singapore which is still under exponential growth but with only 3 death per million people. South-Korea seems to have a good control now but has more casualties than China respective to its population. S.-Korea has the advantage it is isolated and small and can easily control the movement of people which is not the case of mainland China.

China would not be able to contain information about uncontrolled spread in other regions. Just think about the videos that got out uf Wuhan.

Huh, that doesn’t make sense with exponential growth since January. Anyway deaths per million population is a weird measure to use. It “disadvantages” small hard-hit places, making their hospitals look bad.

Yes, there’s a big part of the reason. Control of people, Asian countries excel in that. Inside China, they also contained strictly, at some point, to a “small” part of the country. Try control an Italian in the same way, or most Swiss for that matter.
And sure Wuhan probably under-reported deaths, to save face & due to local politics.
Austrian officials also turned a blind eye to the warnings about Ischgl, just so they could keep the ski resort open a few days longer.

This does not make sense if you expect an exponential growth with 10 time more cases each 10 days. In the case of Japan we observe 10 time more case each month. This shows that Japan manages to slow the spread of the virus but that it is very difficult to stop completely the progression without herd immunity.

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After reading a similar news article, I contacted an ex colleague of mine from Singapore (he was the head of trading for our company’s branch in Spore) to ask him what’s going on and how’s he holding up. Here’s what he replied:
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Probably spyware installed on phones sold in Singapore. Who knows.

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https://ncase.me/contact-tracing/

You don’t need surveillance to implement contact tracing with apps.

I seriously started thinking about selling some of my stocks. The more I read about coming economic data, the more I have an impression that it’s gonna be bigger than 2008. Anyone is doing the same thing?

Thinking about it but “do not time the market” :man_shrugging:

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For now I’m just not buying more.
Don’t think I will sell, at least not my “core” ETFs.