I’ll probably start selling in 20-25 years 
2 Likes
I just checked and was surprised to find that I am 6k in plus. So even more tempting to sell for me than for you, @1000000CHF 
But… I can’t retire on 6k. And I have no clue what happens next. Markets are crazy, I think they are completely underestimating the crisis. But I don’t make the market… And I am only half invested at this stage, so actually I have to buy not sell. But should I buy now or should I wait, the eternal question. 
1 Like
2 Likes
Interesting data from Bundesamt für Statistik. KW15 ended on 12 April 2020, with supposed 1200 covid-19 deaths. Yet these deaths are nowhere to be found when we compare it with previous years. Thoughts? (the Excel sheet also has an age breakdown, also there we see nothing, even in the 80+ age bracket)
You do see them there, starting from week 12. Thing is, before COVID we were looking at fewer deaths than normal, not least because we had a weak influenza season.
What COVID did was flipping us from lower than normal deaths to higher than normal deaths. Lower before COVID and higher since COVID results in about normal deaths in overall 2020, so far.
1 Like
Interesting… I can notice that 2020 has more deaths in the latest weeks when comparing to the other years. The previous years all have their higher numbers during weeks 1-10, not in 13+ like 2020. Going by https://covid-19-schweiz.bagapps.ch/de-2.html, weeks 13+ are where the COVID-deaths really started occurring.
Coincidence? Who knows. Maybe if we have the numbers for 3-4 more weeks we might see the (admittedly small so far) pattern continue.
Possible explanation: The limited activities just delayed the normal deaths by a few weeks.
If we didn’t do anything those weekly numbers would have climbed further up, probably to a couple of thousands per week.
7 Likes
I disagree. It’s statistically insignificant. Otherwise, please explain 2015 week 7-9. Some pandemic that I missed? 2017 week 13?
The current total covid-19 death count has been equivalent to 1 week of deaths and has probably been offset by fewer people dying in accidents, postponing risky surgeries, etc.
Excuse me, who are you arguing with? Did I suggest something to the contrary? So far we’ve handled the situation pretty well and we shouldn’t succumb to media exerting mass hysteria on us. At least for Switzerland, the data does not show it.
1 Like
Until now, Switzerland got away with a blue eye. You may also notice that before covid19, deaths were closer to the lower limit because the flu season was mild.
Source
This is new York City with an attack rate of around 20% and a similar amount of people in it. The attack rate could also be 60-80% without any measures. This just shows how important it is to keep Reff below 1 indefinitely.
5 Likes
No! Even if the statistics say that If you are right 10 times in 40 years and you go out from the market is better than if you avoid selling the 10 better moments in the market…
1 Like
Why would you sell if you are long term? That would be more “timing market” by trying to re-enter at a lower point later in May… Some people might execute that properly but I don’t trust myself and my uninformed intuitions to succeed at this.
If you want completely out of the market then maybe selling today is not the worst… Certainly better than a few weeks ago.
2 Likes
Gyms are opening on May 11th! Finally!
1 Like
I will have to do every exercise with 3 kg only…
Or maybe not. It looks like the Bundesrat talked bullshit today. BAG is saying that gyms stay closed.
What the hell? Does the right hand not know what the left hand is doing?
While the net effect might be statistically insignificant, it is important to note that this was achieved by unprecedented restrictions on public life, street and pedestrian traffic, etc. People have been staying at home, with limited physical exertion and activity (which should cases of death over the short term). Though accidents, physical injury and other transmittable diseases (which might have been lowered by staying at home and isolating) are relatively uncommon causes of death.
Keep in mind that this is a very, very selective perception and analysis. The 10 or x few “best” days (day-to-day) in investing are often rebounds from a big crash. Just as we’ve witnessed this year.
I am too lazy to pull up the statistics, but he must have had at least couple of the “x best days over the last 40 years” in March and April this very year.
My friend (of whom I told on the forum recently) must have missed all of them - by selling practically near the all-time high on february 19. His portfolio is doing very fine.
2 Likes
I usually check the Euromomo index, where you see all mortality around Europe (including CH).
And also you can kinda compare those number against hard normal flue seasons (example 2017) in the past.
3 Likes
Gyms are open from May 11th! BAG just said that the 1st post was wrong.
Why do you even care? Just go for a run into the forest, there are the urban workout places, vitaparcour etc. Or just do pushups and other exercises that you can do at home. If it weren’t for the psychological effect, I would put gym subscriptions on the wall of anti-mustachian comedy 
I’m thrilled to see what the loosening of the lockdown will bring.
- If the number of cases jumps up again and hospitals become crowded, then it will mean we need to tighten the lockdown until we have a better way to fight this virus.
- If hospitals don’t become crowded, it will mean the virus already got the most susceptible victims, or maybe the most deadly strains died out
- If we see no spikes in the number of cases, it will mean we have reached herd immunity (?)
4 Likes
So if you miss the 10 best and 10 worst day, you are up 32% vs hold.
The 10 best and worst days are usually very close together.
1 Like