Coronavirus: when do we reach the bottom of the dip?

I succumbed to FOMO yesterday and both some VWO, would have been better today but whatever. Today I am buying some US small cap, it was the next in line needed rebalancing. Next week more VIAC money will go into che Swiss market. In a couple of weeks I get a nice batch of RSUs vesting so I’ll have more ammo for the months to come (hopefully THAT stock won’t tank as much as everything else :slight_smile: ).

1 Like

Funny thing, the virus is confirmed being in Italy since at least beginning of January. (I actually suspect it was everywhere since November).
Why then was the world going on without problems? I am really still convinced this panic is overblown, and I am really annoyed of journalism (or I should say from the www, since there is a fight to get more clicks to get more money from advertising)

Consider also that today is Friday, and for the last 4 out of 5 weeks the markets couldn’t hold up over the weekend and started lower the following Monday… Plus there’s still a lot of uncertainty regarding the future and the wave of infections just arrived in the US this week…

But then, there is this article: https://www.ft.com/content/8f05b83c-7024-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

In case anybody needs motivation, I added to VGT, EWW, EWZ, ERUS and GREK today.

Funny thing: I was with my gf in Sardinia in October 2019 and she had a fever and a very bad dry cough. It only occurred to us today. I’m not suggesting anything, but if she got the same symptoms today, we would be panicking.

One time you should post your full portfolio with weights for each position. I mean, how many pos do you have? You added 5 new pos to you portfolio. And you still claim that the bulk of it is basically VT?

1 Like

I never held VT, ever.

I descirbed my portfolio roughly in this forum post:

Core is VTI+VGT+VEA+VWO but I also have approx ~1% portfolio value in every EM country separately. Also separate tilts to EMU and APACexJapan to lower the relative weight of Japan and the UK in VEA. The whole idea of this portfolio was to gain outperformance by rebalancing which used to happen every couple of months. With the volatility we have now, it happens every second day.

Overall 25 positions plus some speculative single stocks, but I’m fighting with myself to abandon single stocks completely (still losing).

1 Like

Hehe, this is the hardest… on what criteria do you pick those individual stocks?!

yeah which is VT, why do you have to be so exact?

And you still didn’t say how much %. It would be nice if you also told us the relative size of these exotic investments to your portfolio. If these under amounts under 10’000 CHF then I guess I can just ignore it :slight_smile:

Because weighting is not the same.

Mostly high growth potential Chinese stocks. No criteria really. I sold most of it already and put in EMQQ

I said ~1% of portfolio value per EM country. Your criteria would imply 1M+ portfolio value. Make an educated guess :slight_smile:

before you wrote it in a way that I could not understand if you mean in total or per country. Anyway, you still didn’t tell how much % in total for exotic investments.

In other news, did everyone get the memo that Boris Johnson and Britain’s minister of health got the covid-19?

I did and it’s not only him but the health secretary Matt Hancock too. I asked my mate in London what’s going on and his reply was something along these lines: “they either want to demonstrate that this is a simple cold/ in a sort of lead-by-example way/ or they’re plain dumb”

On a funny note:

Approx 60% closely corresponds to VT, the rest is individual.

1 Like

Fun Fact:

You all just “wasted” hours of your life playing a game that was based on a jokey example about concerns of instrumental convergence of AI.

If you’re interested in this topic I suggest to you the following article (bad title but pretty good introduction to the topic):

They were quite possibly infected by Neil Ferguson, their epidemiologist advisor. Somewhat ironic.

1 Like

I know, there is a great article on Wait But Why about it.

In other news, I wanted to wait with these some days to be sure, but it looks like the curve is starting to flat out in Switzerland. Yes, I know, it doesn’t mean the economy will be fine. It just means that probably millions won’t die. However, it makes you think when you see that 0.5% of Ticino residents are infected and in just a few days over 1% will be. In there it’s far from contained.

1 Like

Dude, please stop these conspiracy theories and start reading scientists specializing in epidemilogy. You know how exponential curve works, right? You realize that going to first 100k cases globally took 67 days, another 100k 14 days, another 100k 4 days. In January the virus was spreading very slowly because there were very little people infected.

By the way, today in Italy 969 people died from Covid.

PS. Yes, internet journalism is crap. Read JAMA articles on corona.

1 Like

Which is in line with the expectations. Just plot out the extend the death curve for a few following days to save yourself some drama.

1 Like

I know it’s expected. I’m just annoyed with people still suggesting covid is like a flu. No, hell no, it’s not.

2 Likes

Btw, in all these doomy models, I asked myself: and what if the virus spreads at a faster rate than we think? We are for sure testing only a small portion of the infected population. That would let us reach herd immunity faster too. And now I read this: