I have no opinion, but came across this blog post this morning. It argues that the market in the EU is healthier because the USA only has large companies because it often has a monopoly.
Here’s the blown-up version of the EU cluster. ASML indeed seems to be missing.
I researched a bit and found the original post on this on Twitter. Of course, someone else already pointed out that ASML is missing but the author responds as follows:
ASML is the result of a merger. It is thus not a “from scratch” company as defined by Draghi, repeated in my thread, and included in the legend of both visualizations.
The original data is on a Google sheet in text form.
Looks like the guy actually did his homework …
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The over-representation by Sweden is quite amazing!
Interestingly enough, Sweden has a strong stock market. According to this article, it is a combination of strong domestic, institutional investor demand, retail investors and investment culture. It seems that financial literacy is promoted, also in schools.
US media was already enough but now Goofy media is also helping US stocks vs rest of world 
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Sir, excuse me, I don’t do media … my work is called propaganda!
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Maybe you should also do some propaganda for EU and CH stock market
It would definitely help most of us who are not 100% VOO
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Shur. Vor ey smol feee I vil efen promott ze Roossian stock market.
Here iz my beetcoin address: 1Fak3BTC4LaughsP1easeSendDogeCoinIns7ead
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You decided to tilt away from the US and unhappy with the media, as your tilt is not working as expected. Well, don’t tilt, or make it a conscious decision, where long term you will win or lose.
I am not unhappy with my portfolio. And as I already mentioned I know my returns would be low because of my choice. Comment above was just a joke.
The comment about media is not about its impact on returns but it’s impact on perception of markets in general. US media always paints everywhere else as non investible & if Europeans start consuming only such discussions then it can make choices very biased.
As per US media , US is exceptional but they don’t focus a lot on pension crisis, housing crisis, debt crisis, health crisis, etc. All they talk about is how great US stocks are and why people should pay 24 times PE for those stocks. They don’t talk about how Stock market is completely locked in the pension funds and if stocks fall for long time, the pension system will collapse.
Did you ever hear so much publicity about Swiss stock market outperforming the world for almost 30 years? I know since covid things changed but I never heard about all this in media ever.
I think media in Europe is generally not that positive about home markets. They tend to focus on everything that’s bad. All news stories are about things that don’t work.
P.S -: my portfolio so far actually have better returns than VT since inception (only 4 year history), most likely because I used to be stock ninja, then ETF ninja in beginning and perhaps I was more exposed to US in past. Reason is as explained above all I heard about ever was US market. In beginning I didn’t even know about VT. I knew VOO & VTI
When I say I expect lower returns, I mean for future.
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Horosho
If only I had any beet
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Look, for investment success it is better to be if not happy with the portfolio, but at least to have a conviction in it.
The US market it just plain better than exUS. Having said that, I don’t mean you should only invest into it. The superior quality of the US market is reflected in its valuation, its f@cking expensive. Europe is also expensive, but less so – you get a discount for the same profits.
The rational thing is to assume that the expected risk-adjusted return is the same for the US and exUS. You cannot know which horse will come first. You diversify and let the market decide or the future to let it see, unfold. Theoretically the best way to achieve max risk-adjusted return is to follow the average dollar. From this follows that VT or any similar vehicle is the best choice. And the time will tell.
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From Vanguard’s 2025 outlook:
Full paper here: https://advisors.vanguard.com/content/dam/fas/pdfs/ISGVEMO.pdf
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Vanguard has been saying this for years based on the analysis with their capital markets model. Had you followed their assessment, you’d be much poorer today.
Everyone knows that the US equities are expensive, exUS is less expensive, and value is relatively cheap. Some day, the reality will catch up. But as randomness dominates, no one relibly knows when that will happen.
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I don’t think Vanguard is suggesting not to invest in US. They are simply estimating the expected return which could be used for financial planning purposes.
I doubt that such forecasts are intended to change the asset allocation strategies for a typical investor. They are mainly aimed to share their views of the market and for financial planners to use these numbers for planning purposes
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Agree with this. The practical value of Vanguard estimations is limited to planning, but it is not actionable as an asset allocation tool.
On the other hand, PWL, mostly known through Ben Felix and Rational Reminder, uses 75% historic returns and 25% valuations-based estimate for planning purposes.
I personally see only entertainment value in such reports.
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In another outlook* I found the authors arguing that there’s currently no US exceptionalism.
They’re looking at it in terms of GDP (versus, say, market valuation):
While there has been much talk about US exceptionalism, by historical standards the US’s
post-Covid performance hasn’t been truly exceptional at all. Over the past five years, the
US economy has outgrown its OECD peers by 50 bps per year in real GDP terms. We define
exceptionalism as the ability to durably outperform peers by at least 1 standard deviation
per year, and our analysis suggests that this requires 250 bps outperformance in real GDP
terms on an annual basis. Based on analysis of 20 countries from 1900-2022, we find that
on several occasions countries have managed to outperform their peers by at least 1
standard deviation (equating to 250 bps higher real GDP growth per year) for 10
consecutive years (Germany 1945-1954, Japan 1954-1963). From a historical perspective,
the US has yet to prove its credentials.
* BTW, off topic, I’m often amazed by these reports and outlooks. The amount of data and work that went into them seems massive – and I can download them for free!
Of course, the irony is that I can’t really act on them …
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Pop(corn)? 
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Heh, I was expecting that (edit: meaning I was expecting this gif). Noise.
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