Yesterday, we had an about face by the Fed. BoE also pausing:
Hold onto your hats, I bought the dip!
5 Likes
1 Like
Just to update, everything I bought today went down in value. Everything I sold, went up in value. So business as usual, then.
9 Likes
(source)
2 Likes
Now take out the Mag7 and watch the S&P500 beat by Europe 
Insane drop in Novo today, showing how frothy even this stock is…
4 Likes
a >20% drop and still has a massive PE!
Yeah, market is being the proverbial infant dropping their toys out the pram, again.
1 Like
Sir, excuse me, but the market is always efficient.*
* Nobel and other important prizes and papers cited here.
Dear Santa,
Please bring us back to November’s ATH so I can sell all and wait for the big crash of 2025.
Yours sincerely,
Mirager
2 Likes
The previous ATH was on Monday, ahem, ahem.
1 Like
Oh well, Monday 16/12/2024 then
Where’s my Santa rally? Was I a naughty boy?
5 Likes
1 Like
With the exception of 2017 and 2024, the average prediction direction was actually correct all the time (whether S&P gains more or less than the previous year). Absolute values are quite off, but I would still have expected worse predictions 
4 Likes
My conclusion is that it’s tough to predict irrational behaviour
3 Likes
Did anyone do better than a simple momentum predictor (i.e. if went up last year, predict up, if went down last year, predict down)?
1 Like
Actually the outcome (actual return) was exactly the opposite (if it went up more this year compared to last year, it has less growth next year; if it had less growth than the last year, it has more growth the year after).
But that fluctuating pattern is also to be expected, because of regression to the mean.