Depends on when funds are invested/how much you already had at the start and if you use the exact money return or time weighted rate of return.
Thank you for your service
I trust we’ll be able to buy the dips shortly!
I was looking at FINRA margin debt and it seems we are slowly creeping up to all time highs. I am curious to see where OCT 2024 will be.
Full risk ON
Last peak was Dec 2021
Shiller CAPE is now at 2021 level as well.
Only Dotcom Bubble was ever higher than here.
If we reach 40 I will probably shift 5% away from US and at 45 (if we get this far…), another 5%.
Idc if this is market timing, but this is getting bonkers. (I‘d still be almost 50% US at that point, so only sinning a little…)
Or maybe instead I‘ll get 5% CAOS on margin into the portfolio.
Managed futures for the long drawn out bears and a little tail protection for the fast ones, without sacrificing any exposure and positive/flat expected return.
Unfortunately, the average returns of Equity investing mostly comes if investors remain invested.
Changing allocation quite often can lead to suboptimal results because the average is average as crashes get compensated with euphoria.
My suggestion would be to define the US allocation and kind of stick to it. It’s it’s 45 then it’s 45.
Well, the allocation doesn’t need to change if you don’t have a 100% stock portfolio. US stocks becoming more expensive than, say, bonds, means you’d naturally sell stocks and buy bonds.
I think @Tony1337 wants to specifically reduce US exposure. So I don’t think this is about rebalancing
But it works across all the different asset categories provided you set up the right buckets e.g. If US stocks go up, then they get sold to keep the allocation in line.
Yes for me that’s how it works.
However if someone is mainly using VT, this wouldn’t work because US portion will keep increasing
Take this as pure uneducated layman talk but:
- the world GDP is growing by roughly 3.5% per year since 1961, in real terms.
- the global stock market seems to be growing by roughly 6% real per year.
In my layman view, the difference is (roughly) people getting in and out at the wrong time, creating a transfer of wealth from their pockets to those of the average market participant.
That being said, I’m not considering investing in the US at all myself, mostly as the result of a lack of trust rather than a lack of faith in their future returns (in the same way I don’t trust China and wouldn’t invest in their stocks).
S&P 500 dropped below 6000 and Bitcoin below 90 000$. Should we start panicking now?
I think this chart is interesting
Kind of explains the difference a bit.
I think we cannot compare market growth with GDP growth because (a) not all companies are listed (b) stock market cap weight might not be representative of the actually economy
Source
I think we should be panicking if it doesn’t drop below 6000 for few days
Fast & Furious is fun to watch as a movie but for my portfolio I would rather prefer Mr Miyagi
I’m currently out of the market to funnel all my funds toward my home project (I’m still an early accumulator).
My target portfolio is first 100k in an UCITS ETF tracking MSCI World ex US, then individual Swiss stocks.
I let considerations other than financial enter my investing decisions. Choosing to invest in individual Swiss stocks comes from the desire to get full benefit of my voting rights by getting the shares registered.
It is fully possible that my allocation/the choice of assets I’m willing to invest in change in time and I may well end up funnelling wealth toward steady passive investors.
I just didn’t want to post a message out of which one can take the conclusion of “stay invested in the US” without clarifying that it’s not what I do, for my own personal reasons.
to get full benefit of my voting rights by getting the shares registered.
can you provide a bit more details here, please?
At least TradeDirect and Swissquote allow for the holders of Swiss shares to be written on the company registry. This allows the company to know you are one of their shareholders. They invite you to their shareholders meeting where you can vote on various subjects, most notably board elections and accounts approval.
Some companies offer special perks to their shareholders, see the dedicated thread for that: Free Shareholder Swag in CH
They usually have nice buffets that can make it worth it for students to buy one share of a company if they’re priced cheaply and get the “free” meal (it’s not actually free since it’s paid with money that could have been used to benefit shareholders in other ways). Of course, you have to deal with the heavier fees of Swiss brokers to do that so striking the right balance might not be an inconsequential task.
Of course, I’d be deluding myself if I thought my tiny, tiny vote is going to change the way the company is being run but hey, I like to enjoy the full benefits of my shares. ^^
Hey, don’t forget though, you don’t only have a “tiny vote”, but at the GV the right to state your case and (possibly) swing many more votes to your line than your “tiny” amount.
remember, don’t only critisice though, also credit (suisse) where credit (suisse) is due
And in the case of China, there’s a lot of financial repression going on.