Now imagine how cash would outperform this!
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From today’s Bloomberg MarketsDaily newsletter:
ETFs enjoy record cash inflows
It’s been a banner year for exchange-traded funds all over the world, fueled by the sizzling stock rally. So far, ETFs have taken in $1.5 trillion globally, data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence show, with every region seeing record money. That’s with more than five weeks to go. A further plus: December is known to be a historically strong inflow month for these cheap products for the masses.
Was Oct 20 the top in CHF? Reading my cristal ball, it looks like we are in a top building process with flat/slightly reducing highs and increasing lows. Lines wiill converge in about 2-4 weeks and if you askk me, we will then (before christmas) either have a strong bull trend thatt sstartd - or more likely a trend reversal. Gut feel: non-Event december and bad surprise early Jan…
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How about Frontier Markets? 
Not really efficiently investible.
Some remaining funds also shut down recently.
Liquidity and transaction cost is a big problem there.
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Nothing is overvalued or undervalued. Everything is rightly valued because lets face it, market knows 
If I were you, I would not expect higher returns from any of the markets. I would not be surprised if all of the following would have similar returns over long term
- VT
- VTI 50%, VXUS 50%
- VTI 33%, CHSPI 33% , VXUS 34%
So deviating away from VT should be for RISK mitigation & not really for return maximization.
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I found a undervalued market with a great cape ratio, solid firm with proven business model and high dividend yield. Invested a couple of years ago.
Now, we all know what happened to russian stocks…
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When our home bias in equities will pay?
Currently invested with SPI Extra 2/3 and SMI 1/3 with vested and 3A which represent 20% of invested money.
It’s a bit hard to stay the course when US takes all for 15 years now!
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This is true that MSCI Switzerland has underperformed MSCI World & MSCI ACWI IMI over a 10 year period. But MSCI CH has outperformed MSCI world & ACWI IMI since 1994. Source
No one knows if returns for CH would increase over next 10-20 years or not. But this is true for any country. Even US is not guaranteed to outperform.
The question is how did your portfolio performed at overall level and was it decent performance or not. You cannot cherry pick the elements. If your strategy is world ETF with 20% CH then what was the return of this strategy during your investment horizon?
Table below is in CHF terms
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The returns haven‘t been bad.
The US outperformance was just crazy over the last decade.
Your investment lifetime is many decades, not just ten.
Stay the course and not chase performance over the short-term. That‘s recipe for buying high and selling low.
Also US valuations get more and more ridiculous. It cannot go on like this forever, there is a ceiling in valuations.
From a purely fundamental performance, US stocks just did slightly better.
Most of US outperformance over ex-US came from USD strength and valuation multiples increasing. Which both are unlikely to continue on forever.
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I totally agree with you guys. I will stay the course with 65 %world + CH 20% with small/mid cap tilt
- tiny overweight on emerging market 15%
Anyway if CH stocked start to really perform hopefully I guess I would sell it to buy Physical real estate with leverage.
Global Equities + local RE for home bias seems more logical to me. It could be a rental property or funds with leverage
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To be honest I think the question for you is do you believe in home bias or not.
It doesn’t have to work always in your favour but results and belief are not same
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I wonder how it would help you. When dot com bubble deflated, exUS did indeed better than the US market. But only a little bit better.
I pondering if we get CAPE / Euro-US exchange rate above 40, may be it would be the time to divert new money from VT to payng of the mortgage.
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Jp morgan 2025 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions
Yea that’s a bit the question. But a little already helps. Also teh valuation difference between US/ex-US is wayy bigge rthen during dotcom today. So if AI is a bubble, that bubble will pop in US only, as AI valuation craze is non-existant in ex-US esentially. A more valuey approach could help as well.
Anyway the diffference will be marginal. If I’m 60 or 50% US won’t make a crazy difference either way. But may help psychological. My big managed futures positions shoudl hedge against that anyway as well already. I’m essentially 80% stocks + 80% diverse managed futures funds at this point.
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My so hard bought VT shares via the option route kill any ideas to tinker with the portfolio.
One day you understand that SPX is the best invention after the sliced bread and its going to outperform anything and everything, the other day you look at it and oh my, it’s f*cking expensive, it’s going to crash or we get lost decades in a row.
But then you look at the modest VT and realize you hedge all the bets on the equity side. And you go on to your daily business.
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How do you get this? Looked up your old comments in the MF thread, but couldn‘t find it.
A combination of stacked funds like RSST and margin loan.
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I think VT works fine in terms of diversity.
But for me more than 60% exposure to one country is a big concentration risk specially with type of leadership the country have
Having said that, it’s not like I can go below 50% anyways because of such a large investible market.
What’s wrong with having 60% of equity in companies that are domiciled in the US? It does not mean 60% exposure to one economy, it’s exposure to their legal system.
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