I am underweight myself 
Who knew I am so much risk taking
1 Like
Unfollow yourself? 
It would end up in recursive loop
2 Likes
I was thinking about this
But if we look at CH10Y (0.4-0.5%) and US10Y (>4.5%) , it also says that market as a whole is expected USD to depreciate quite a lot over next 10years
Isnāt it?
Yes but not quite as much as in the Vanguard forecast. The current 5y forward rate of USD/CHF is 14.48%, which would be 2.7% p.a. The Vanguard forecast indicates a 3.9% p.a. depreciation over 10 years. I donāt see 10y forward rates on USDCHF Forward Rates for U.S. Dollar/Swiss Franc Forex - Barchart.com, unfortunately.
The biggest inconsistency I see is that the EUR depreciation against CHF would be much higher than the interest differential. Nothing is impossible and Iām certainly not an expert on the forex market but it does sound highly unlikely to me over a 10y period. Buying a CHF-hedged EMU stock fund would be a good investment according to Vanguardās model.
1 Like
There is also carry, that worked historically.
Meaning youāll make more with higher yielding currencies, and they donāt depreciate as much as the theoretical interest rate parity would give you.
You can see the market reacting to fed news for example. Most of the time fed said they will keep interest rates higher in the last years, the USD apreciated immediately. Interest rate parity would predict the opposite.
I think they do model some sort of currency movements which gets reflected in the calculations
But indeed the CHF denominated returns look quite low versus other currencies.
Isnāt it because higher rates should also drive capital into US bonds which if bought by foreigners/foreign capital drive the FX.
This whole FX stuff is very complex
Thank god I donāt try to trade currencies
Nah, itās very true. We live life at our own risk. Itās also our own profits and Iām not sharing mine. 
1 Like
basically, thatās part of why carry exists
1 Like
Isnāt this racist? Real question.
Really?
I always thought it was an acronym like FANG and itās used all the times in Europe.
I had no idea of it being derogatory in nature.
1 Like
Wikipedia says fo sho (so would be the GIPSI one)
PIGS is a derogatory acronym that has been used to designate the economies of the Southern European countries of Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain. During the European debt crisis of 2009ā14 the variant PIIGS, or GIPSI, was coined to include Ireland
Okay
So I coined a new acronym-:
IGPS (Italy , Greece, Portugal, Spain)
1 Like
I personally couldnāt care less as a Greek but yeah some people have thinner skin.
1 Like
FANG is derogatory too. It portrays tech companies as slithering snakes, or maybe vampires sucking your blood.
Yes. People can get offended by anything. Now Iām going to cancel you.
4 Likes
What exactly cancelling mean?
Iāve also never seen FANG, only FAANG, which seems not so obviously a word. Or am I confusing meanings?
āTo cancel someoneā means to publicly and often vocally reject them, stop supporting them, and encourage others to do the same, often due to perceived wrongdoing or offensive statements. This term is particularly associated with ācancel culture,ā a phenomenon where individuals, especially celebrities, face public backlash and ostracism for their actions or words.