I pretty much stayed the course
- US slightly underweight at ~60% (right now around 58%)
- Dev ex-US 30%
- EM 10% (right now around 12%)
I “rebalance” when it’s time to buy (usually monthly, sometimes quarterly).
Thanks for sharing
I am structurally underweight US to avoid concentration in one country. Limiting to 50%. Overweight CH & IN (home bias)
Oh it did, but in an unexpected way. I was overweight US before April, considered eliminating the US tilt by only adding to my all-world holdings which are the 2/3 of the portfolio, and then came full circle and decided to actually maintain the US tilt.
I got wondering if my personal dislike of Trump as a politician and person clouded my judgement in terms of investing, and it may well have. It seems to me that US dominance will actually continue, and if the Europe pulls its shit together more, that’s all the better.
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I just watched a clip on Yahoo finance and the analyst was very bullish on Greece…. Where is your home bias 
The two definitions of a bull market coexist: new ATH, or +20% from the previous trough following the last ATH. There is no consensus.
The argument for the ATH definition, which I heard a lot from specialists, is the asymmetry between peaks and troughs: the peaks always get higher, but the troughs do not always get lower, they always get higher as well. That’s why I prefer it over the 20% increase.
I see a +20% increase that does not reach an ATH and instead loses 20% again as a bull trap, not a bull market. And if an ATH is reached after a 20% increase then the definition used is irrelevant, there is a bull market anyway and its exact starting point is secondary.
Bear markets are immediately identified. Bull markets can only be identified long after they have started and that’s why it’s important to remain invested at all times.
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HAH, I’ll refer to my Indian friend who told me he wouldn’t put a single rupee in an Indian stock because “he knows India”. Change the country and currency and I’d say the same.
I probably share your view that I wouldnt put a penny (aka overweight vs market cap weight) the Indian Market, and I am a bit sceptical as well about Greece, for the same reason.
However: Efficient Market Theory indicates that no matter how bad a company was run, unless it was boundd for bancrupcy (whicch should be visible in the numbers), its share would have a price that translates to market returns. Meaning, you just buy thee Greece Haystackk at a much lower P/E and you are good… as long as the Market actually had any (forecasted Earnings => Beware the P/E calculation pitfalls).
And beyond this, the more I think about Poland, I see value in Polish shares and a prospect outlook. Technically, it was interesting to invest. But at the same time, if is an Emerging Market for a reason, and that reason is among others Regulations and Taxation related. The current Capital Gains Tax is a bit a messy setup as I understand it was like in India aplied even to ETF / Foreign Investors? Thats a big No-No to me…
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1 day without a post about 2025 is borderline criminal!
VIX down, stocks up, most of us above water…nice and boring?
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There you go - Excise duty planned for outwards remittance from USA . So far it’s for residents I believe.
Imagine if they do this for non-Resident brokerage accounts too. Although I have to say I am not very sure if remittances from USD accounts in IBKR would be exempted or not because technically if they apply this to wire transfer then all money moving out of US by non-US citizen will become part of scope
House Republicans have included in President Donald Trump’s big priority bill a 5% excise tax on remittance transfers that would cover more than 40 million people, including green card holders and nonimmigrant visa holders, such as people on H-1B, H-2A and H-2B visas. U.S. citizens would be exempt.
Yeah it’s about money movement abroad and no investments.
But let’s say you hold US stocks or Bonds in IBKR, when you sell them , you will get USD which get deposited into USD accounts in US.
Now you want to move the USD to your USD account in Switzerland, then this 5% tax would apply or not? It’s not clear
When you hold USD in Swissquote, it’s held in CHIBAN but IBKR holds USD in US banks as far as I know.
It’s not clear indeed. I really don’t think it’s ever going to affect investments, this smells like “foreigners bad” to me, driven by fat guys in cowboy hats who get incensed thinking about their uninsured slave labour sending dahlars abroad.
As a Greek this is resonant with me, the foreign currency sent back from gastarbeiters in the US, Canada, Australia, Germany and Belgium between 1900-1960 was substantial and consistent enough to be seriously considered part of the state budget.
how do you distinguish “appropriate” fund flows for payments/bills and treasury related shifting money back and forth… how do you distinguish irrevoceable from money transfer for “family and community support”?
Either, this will not be enforceable as this turns into a tax for Western Union and the like (which could easily be circumvented with bank transfers to Europe, and Money Transfer from there to the emerging Market… or there is a control on all fund flows (including payment of bills for shipping abroad), which was the equivalent of a 5% flatrate tax on imports (payments abroad) plus a super heavy financial markets impediment.
Given US incompetency, this will go balistic again, until people realize that markets colapse and it then turns to nothing I guess.
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I wouldn’t worry about this, remittance transfer is a well defined concept in US code, dividend payments or wire transfers are not it
edit: https://www.consumerfinance.gov/rules-policy/regulations/1005/30/#e-2-ii if you’re curious (tho there’s a bit of a circular definition 
)
It’s funny that using bitcoin instead is an allowed way to not be classified a remittance (since bitcoin is a commodity).
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Got it
Still taxing money twice is not very interesting concept. Seems like punishment for foreigners living in US.
The extra tax is deductible from income tax.
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Well. For sure tariffs will come.
+10% are already in place and they might apply another 5-10% to most countries
Big economies might apply some counter tariffs and call it a day
Smaller ones should just keep going and let American consumers pay the tariffs. It’s not that those jobs are going to move away to US anyways
Not sure where CH will fit because if Pharma price control comes into play, there wouldn’t be any investments for Swiss Pharma to make in US and maybe no deal in the end.
Where did you see this?
I couldn’t find this written anywhere
All I see is that proposal is to collect 5% from remittances
You should check the proposal, not the media reports.
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Okay I have an investment related question
Let’s say US companies continue to be great with innovation and cutting edge technologies. But at same time, US govt cannot manage their debt & either default or take drastic taxation measures to reduce debt.
What would be the impact on S&P 500 in that scenario?
- S&P can continue to deliver good returns
- Or S&P would end up suffering too
The question I am asking is how much does Stock market performance depend on national balance sheet.
Probably need to break this down to phases -
- while the party is still going, further fueled by government overspending
- Growing recognition the party can’t go on (e.g., sovereign downgrades)
- Politicians and central bank grudgingly administer bitter medicine (spending cuts, rate- and tax hikes), everyone in hangover
Net impact may be positive in the first phase. After that, rate hikes and confidence crises would make borrowing expensive for companies, bad for stocks. So would be tax hikes, especially on corporations, unless that effect is outweighted by gain in confidence.
Might be murky in practice- perhaps best to run a few crises (Greek euro, Liz Truss premiership, Argentina,…) through AI?
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