Chronicles of 2025

I see a difference, stocks are regulated, insider trading is very illegal. I feel that by broadcasting it to the word he can fall back and say “hey, I just told EVERYONE in the world to buy stocks, it’s not insider trading”. The first time was more blatant because that was info he had, and was in his control, while this time it needed another country to play ball.

Or, did Buffett’s “buy American, I am” in 2008 or whenever it was raise any eyebrows?

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It’s quite simple , normal rules don’t apply to POTUS

Normal employees are told not to accept gifts of any significant value from a supplier or client. POTUS says „I will be stupid to refuse a free plane“

Normal folks would go to jail for insider training. But POTUS can announce on twitter.

Basically we have a person who wants to be treated and seen like a god. And he believes he has complete immunity and he acts like that.

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Because Supreme Court basically gave him exactly that with the whole Mueller thing.

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There are boring years, then there’s this :sweat_smile:

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And that’s where we stop with politics.

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(softly setting automation to buy QQQ on margin based on Twitter alarms)

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this is amazing… Mr. Market seems to anticipate that no matter what Trump says / said, none of that would ever materialize. Probably even that we will be back to pretty much zero tariffs in 90 days. On a Personal Investment level, I am currently roughly at 1.7% return… that just doesn’t make much sense if you ask me haha.

I dunno, I think people were already pricing in 10-20% tariffs ahead of “liberation day”, and now the China tariffs are 10% (+the 20% applied before “liberation day”).

So we got lower end of tariff expectations + a ton of still remaining uncertainty.

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To bring in an alternative view into the echo chamber…

The USA are actually to most open country in terms of trade. China is very restrictive for foreign businesses. Also the EU and CH has many more tarifs or non tarif measure to restrict US imports…

The de minimis rule with 800 usd free of duty imports, no warranty, no returns, etc. Basically kills local small businesses in some areas.

So, there was a significant unfair treatment of the us.

Also, europe did rely fully on the USA for its defense capabilities and underspent for years.

The USA pointed out nordstrean 2 should not go into business and the reliance on russian gas. Germany literally laughed at them in the UNO assembly.

Maybe it takes a madman to change the big issues as any same politician doesnt dare to. The way it happened certainly wasnt nice, but i think the outcome will be positive in the long run.

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Would it be possible to share what restrictions EU apply to US imports other than the regulations that apply to EU production as well (VAT, food items with certain chemicals, REACH rules) ?

On daily basis we buy in Europe a lot of American goods & services , so I would be curious to know what actually is not allowed to come.

I agree US was most open country. This is what made US great.

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Good thing for bad reason and with bad way is still a good thing, is what you’re saying?

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Not anymore.
You are arguing from a previous state.

Now the minimum blanket tariff is 10% and for most it will be higher. While at the same time forcing the trade deal country to basically 0% tariff (like UK)

That‘s far from “open to trade”. That‘s a mafia bully forcing a cut for themselves and forcing the other party to comply.

Again we’re drifting into politics. I don’t think this thread is the place for this.

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My recommendation would be to try to focus on the net result of the trade deals rather than the approach of the trade deals. I think we have our own views on what we consider fair, good and reliable. These views often stem from what we personally consider good behaviour. Those views might or might not drive our asset allocation decisions

So leaving politics aside, what’s your opinion on regional allocation when it comes to Equities & Bonds. Now that markets are coming closer to ATH, it might be a good time to think about asset allocation. Did recent geopolitics change your view at all?

Market weight US / underweight / overweight ?

You can‘t fully separate politics and investing.

Especially trade politics and its implications for investing.

If this is already too much politics, we can just close the topic alltogether and replace with an auto ticker of stockmovements…

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My opinion: It’s the how that counts.

That is interesting and belongs in this forum.

That is politics and offers no added value at least not the way it is formulated.

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I can get behind that reasoning

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Thanks. That was what I meant but failed to properly articulate in my above post.

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Ha! We’ve managed to regulate ourselves without mods! :partying_face:

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As a swiss this is what I would call “Eigenverantwortung” :joy:

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