Does anyone know why the US-UK trade deal is so cherished by UK?
It seems UK reduced their Tariffs & US increased their tariffs effective tariff for UK imports
Comparing situation versus Jan 2025
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Hmm. US stuff will be cheaper in UK? I mean, jeans and bikes and booze are getting cheaper, what not to like about it?
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Hahaha
But why call it a trade deal.
However maybe you are right, US consumers will pay higher price as 10% tariff wouldnât mean any factory transfer . UK customers will pay lower price
Youâre preaching to the choir. I am at heart a conservative luddite. In the world of fakeness some things can still not be faked.
Does the US do any of these better than any other developed country? Probably not 
Because they got off with a bruise from the bully and not getting hospitalized.
The US is literally fighting a (trade) war and UK got off with small concessions.
Fughting against a way bigger enemy and getting only a small defeat is unfortunately the best outcome.
Thatâs the state world is in right now.
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I watched in CNBC and apparently US media thinks Uk got a win and US didnât get much out of this deal
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The delta between the old tariffs is like 10-20% in favor to the US now, how is this not an astronomical win for the US?
The fact that the 10% stayed in place may be a bad omen that this will remain for all countries.
I believe because most people believe tariffs are bad for the country which is imposing them because it makes local manufacturers complacent & often lead to higher costs.
And as @PhilMongoose said, it is now becoming clear that minimum tariffs in any deal will be 10% which again as per economists is only going to add costs to US consumers. Old average was around 2% and new average would be above 12% plus sectoral tariffs for certain industries (Pharma coming soon)
** Trump confirmed in press conference that 10% is lowest and UK made a âgreat dealâ & they have surplus. For others the tariffs would be higher
I noticed that EU has started talking again about list of goods from US that can have tariffs. Most likely because they have been told that 10% tariffs are non negotiable.
So perhaps Trump thinks itâs a win, but CNBC thinks US didnât get much out of this deal and tariffs didnât prove to be a good bargaining chip. They would act as consumption tax for US consumers. Higher taxes are not good.
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Debit US consumers, credit those that profit from the upcoming income tax cuts (presumably the rich, first and foremost).
I think tax cut is aimed towards low income folks too.
So maybe it would be a wash.
And all this was just unnecessary math
Motorcycle case study: Harley Davidson, Reagan tariffs. They didnât innovate, ok their audience hates innovation too, got complacent and are now dying. Some finance/stock numbers the vid too.
Edit: I ride a motorcycle and love it, this guy is my favourite youtuber for production value, engineering and humour. Now rewatching this video and the first few mins are 100% investing. Edit: recommended watching even for non-bikers.
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Q: Why havenât you asked for a meeting with the president?
A: Iâve never asked for a meeting with any president and I never will.
â Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve
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RE: fax machines: I thought a good chunck of our COVID response relied on fax machines and good old fashioned scalesâŠ
Iâve seen places where, nowadays, faxes exist but are managed through an e-mail server (probably running on one of those unupdated 2012 machines), combining the worst of both worlds.
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As Abs said thereâs some dip to buy, especially if you have a long term horizon.
Unclear if more dip is coming, though. Volume is fairly low, a lot of the dip was bought and sold already, so if youâre purposefully trying to time the market (I am) it appears to be late for that right now, with potentially big news coming up. Generally a good rule of thumb is not to trade 3-5 days around expected news.
If the supposed talks with China tomorrow get something good then the market will rip up. Trump again said âtime to buyâ yesterday, hopefully heâll eventually go to jail for market manipulation and insider trading.
IMO, there was not so much of a dip to buy. Stocks just went from wildly over-valued to slightly less over-valued.
I also run an automated screener which has not yielded much the last months. Currently it shows only:
- PHM, NVR - Homebuilders Iâd already sold out of and would look to falling into deeper value before buying
- QCOM
- PGR - I already have a full allocation to
20% on indices is a pretty solid dip!
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If stocks go up by 5x on the next Trump tweet tomorrow only to be proved it is false and drop back 50%, then thatâs a 50% dip, but still 250% above todayâs already high prices.
Comparing price history doesnât show value. You have to relate the stock price back to fundamentals.
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I understand what youâre saying, and itâs fair, but thatâs why I qualified with âindicesâ.
Looking at it from a different angle: we know the S&P500 has been overvalued for a long time, I donât remember what number it should hit to be fairly valued, but maybe itâs around 3000-3500 (I really canât recall)? With that perspective then yes, not much of a dip right now, but if the fair valuation is never reached then it was a decent dip.
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S&P 500 is not overvalued. Some people think it is overvalued, others think it is rightly valued.
There is a difference between high price vs. overvalued.
I think we should assume all markets are rightly priced & all will give similar long term returns minus costs & taxes.