Chronicles of 2025

for those that like random lines and MACD crosses :slight_smile:

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For those who prefer colorful bars to random lines 


Also, it’s FOMC day today for those who pay homage.

So the chart is essentially the same as the most recent dot plot?
Shows that forward guidance of central banks can work :wink:

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“We have computers, and I kid you not, today in 2025, that are based on Windows 95 and floppy disks,” said Nick Daniels, President of the National Air Traffic Controllers Association.
                          — Wall Street Breakfast by SeekingAlpha

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Gosh, Window 95 was a meme even in 1995 for being an unstable system.

Japan apparently still uses fax machines because old executives don’t want to learn to use email, and nobody dares to suggest they do :wink:

Agree, an upgrade to Windows 98 Second Edition is long overdue.

Seriously, I can imagine keeping Win 98 SE as a legacy operating system, but Windows 95
 :person_shrugging:

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I have personally 
 ahem 
 heard of companies that got compromised. Their in-house email service – usually an on premise Smithonian museum worthy Outlook server that was last patched when it was installed in, say, 2012 or so – was “for security reasons” closed down by external 
 “service providers” 
 (usually these external service providers nicely enough attach an offer for a key to unlock stuff again – for a bargain price tag of a few bitcoins).

That’s when the fax machines have their moment in time and finally shine again in a perhaps last moment of dubious fame in their life of the recent dusty decades since they were last really used.

I have seen heard of large, publicly traded fund administrators notifying asset managers via fax that their funds X, Y, Z had received net flows (cumulative inflows and outflows in the millions) of x, y, z, and then by portfolio managers subsequent hand written and signed (two signatures) buy and sell orders above a certain amount being sent over fax to confirm orders placed over the phone with brokers to make sure that those funds remained invested without any cash drag.


* Along with personal email accounts, usually hosted on the usual suspect cloud providers.
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Not just Finance. Some, ahem, digitally emerging economies depend on fax machines, too.

The sound of the 1990s still resonates in the German capital. Like techno music, the fax machine remains on trend. According to the latest figures from Germany’s digital industry association, four out of five companies in Europe’s largest economy continue to use fax machines and a third do so frequently or very frequently.

Much as Germany’s reputation for efficiency is regularly undermined by slow internet connections and a reliance on paper and rubber stamps, fax machines are at odds with a world embracing artificial intelligence.

https://www.npr.org/2024/05/31/1248426978/germany-fax-machines-parliament

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Does anyone know why the US-UK trade deal is so cherished by UK?

It seems UK reduced their Tariffs & US increased their tariffs effective tariff for UK imports

Comparing situation versus Jan 2025

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Hmm. US stuff will be cheaper in UK? I mean, jeans and bikes and booze are getting cheaper, what not to like about it?

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Hahaha

But why call it a trade deal.
However maybe you are right, US consumers will pay higher price as 10% tariff wouldn’t mean any factory transfer . UK customers will pay lower price

You’re preaching to the choir. I am at heart a conservative luddite. In the world of fakeness some things can still not be faked.

Does the US do any of these better than any other developed country? Probably not :wink:

Because they got off with a bruise from the bully and not getting hospitalized.

The US is literally fighting a (trade) war and UK got off with small concessions.

Fughting against a way bigger enemy and getting only a small defeat is unfortunately the best outcome.

That‘s the state world is in right now.

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I watched in CNBC and apparently US media thinks Uk got a win and US didn’t get much out of this deal

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The delta between the old tariffs is like 10-20% in favor to the US now, how is this not an astronomical win for the US?

The fact that the 10% stayed in place may be a bad omen that this will remain for all countries.

I believe because most people believe tariffs are bad for the country which is imposing them because it makes local manufacturers complacent & often lead to higher costs.

And as @PhilMongoose said, it is now becoming clear that minimum tariffs in any deal will be 10% which again as per economists is only going to add costs to US consumers. Old average was around 2% and new average would be above 12% plus sectoral tariffs for certain industries (Pharma coming soon)

** Trump confirmed in press conference that 10% is lowest and UK made a „great deal“ & they have surplus. For others the tariffs would be higher

I noticed that EU has started talking again about list of goods from US that can have tariffs. Most likely because they have been told that 10% tariffs are non negotiable.

So perhaps Trump thinks it’s a win, but CNBC thinks US didn’t get much out of this deal and tariffs didn’t prove to be a good bargaining chip. They would act as consumption tax for US consumers. Higher taxes are not good.

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Debit US consumers, credit those that profit from the upcoming income tax cuts (presumably the rich, first and foremost).

I think tax cut is aimed towards low income folks too.
So maybe it would be a wash.

And all this was just unnecessary math :wink:

Motorcycle case study: Harley Davidson, Reagan tariffs. They didn’t innovate, ok their audience hates innovation too, got complacent and are now dying. Some finance/stock numbers the vid too.

Edit: I ride a motorcycle and love it, this guy is my favourite youtuber for production value, engineering and humour. Now rewatching this video and the first few mins are 100% investing. Edit: recommended watching even for non-bikers.

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