Panem et circenses. Do you want to insinuate that former game show hosts and Fox News moderators are not the best-qualified staff to run that show as well? 
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Agreed, itâs a clown showâŠBuy a Tesla at the White House showroom. Trump Gaza Hotels. And pump and dumps his meme coin. Grifter and narcissist at his finest.
Now when Papa Warren speaks, we listen.
PS. Trumpy at least is pushing other allied countries to strengthen their ties. And with his Greenland and 51st state rhetoric he unintentionally flipped the election in Canada whose own âtimbit-trumpâ was set to win. Same in Australia. Both their mini-trumps lost their seats too. Always Winning 
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Not ours to choose. Whatâs actionable for us is how we assess the situation and what we make of the assumptions we derive from it.
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True
Tough as an investor when biggest investable market is having such government.
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My hope is that one outcome of Trumpâs presidency will be a demonstration of what it means, to have a populist as a head of state.
P.S. This is quite at the limit, now I wonder if I should censor myself 
P.P.S. Not electing populists should improve global financial stability and avoid uncertain policies, which is of course a benefit for us!
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Just add a smidgen of something to do with investments so our mods overlook it
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In order to truly fool our beloved mods, you should also make it appear as if âthat tidbit of something to do with investments was there all along!â
Bonus point if you can credibly argue that the political âtangentâ was necessary to make the point needed to reach the conclusion.
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So US and China are talking in Geneva. Is there an underlying sentiment by investors that things will go back to where they were, roughly speaking, and that the recent sharp drop in valuations was therefore unwarranted ?
No much deeper revaluation required to account for deeper growth impact while the global economy painfully adjusts to a new reality, over years to come?
Will we see another flurry of posts in this currently idle thread very soon?
No. I also see the possibility of things looking remarkably worse if China pushes harder. I do t see them releasing critical minerals without the US putting more on the table.
Things can not go back to where they were.
Minimum âreciprocalâ tariff is going to be 10% for any country. This means that even if everyone get 10% , average US tariff rate would increase by 4-5X
Now with China, the end game tariff would be higher than 10% because otherwise UK will look like a joke and all this drama meant nothing . US administration is obsessed with Tariffs. So things are not going to go back to past at least for current term.
I personally think that if US doesnât offer reasonable terms, this whole thing will go completely out of control because we have already seen that China is not going to get dominated. They have already shown that they are willing to suffer for pride. US doesnât have that will because only one person wants tariffs.
I can clearly see that US wants to cut the trade deficit. Maybe a noble cause. But unfortunately an economy which is 70% services cannot become a booming manufacturing economy in few months. There is not enough capital, Labor or interest. If they want it, they need to put their own capital to incentivize but they are highly in debt, so even that is not an option.
Letâs see how it goes. Maybe they will start de-escalating atleast
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Precisely. Yet the S&P is down a mere 4% ytd and 8% from its ATH. Doesnât seem to account for the likely magnitude of adjustment required.
I believe market still believes that 10-15% can be absorbed by economy relatively well considering partial cost absorption by supplier and partial inflation impact
Everyone is waiting for what actually happens with EU & CHINA after the showdown.
In meantime, China exports went up in April despite US tariffs. So this should be a message also to have sensible negotiations
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I personally think thereâs still a lot of optimism in the market that I wouldnât deem appropriate. I would not say my stance is based on an educated guess as thatâd be giving it too much credit. Itâs just an opinion not backed by research.
That being said, the S&P500 is down 8% instead of up whatever %. Going flat, for it, is a major change of path vs the trend it had previously. Some future expectations have probably changed. Some people are probably waiting to see how this evolves.
One critical question those who deem the S&P500 too optimistic have to answer is where theyâd put their capital, then. Dev ex-US (or World ex-US ex-China) is an easy bet for me because thatâs where Iâve been for some time but for those who have always believed in American exceptionalism, getting rid of past assumptions must be a tough exercise. On top of that, the previous flight to safety asset, US Treasuries, should also be reassessed currently so it isnât as easy a decision to make as âIâll sit that one out, sell my stocks and buy US Treasuriesâ.
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Simple: market cap weight all-world, as usual.
I donât think itâs major or long-lived yet, itâs just that weâre inundated with constant information.
I wonder if the future expectations bit is also overblown (not by you, by the information flow/opinions). Iâm quite tired personally of the circus that media have become. Let me try to explain how it feels to me:
- Every day there is something new
- The media extrapolate a scenario for the future in milliseconds
- The scenario is either âWE ALL GOAN DIE NOWâ or âIT WILL RAIN GOLD FOREVAHâ
- Back to Step 1, ad nauseam
Cognizant that âthis time is differentâ is a potentially major mistake in investing, I feel this is the key difference between now and before is the volume and intensity of information which grinds peopleâs brains and emotions. Whereas say 20-30 years ago weâd read about what happened yesterday in the papers, with a peppering of opinions and reflections of the past week every Sunday, nowadays it seems the news is an afterthought to the opinions, and there must be opinions every other minute!
Some people for sure are waiting, Iâm among them.
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This is why life strategy funds are popular amongst investors in UK , Canada etc. They already have defined Equity vs Bonds & they have some home bias already built in. This removes all thinking and just monthly contribution.
DIY leads to too much thinking and constant desire to outsmart the rest. This can be cause of stress for few, source of fun for others 
One interesting thing I noticed that almost all life strategy funds in Canada have less than 50% US stocks in the equity portion. Same for Vanguard UK funds.
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More to do with the built-in home bias.
There is no way to go back to status quo. Some bridges have been burned. Trump is also insisting on a minimum of Tariffs even in best case (see UK).
The whole uncertainty created cannot ever be resolved, as long as Trump is President. He can wake up tomorrow and Tariff random stuff with a tweet (see rabdom 100% tariffs on foreign movies).
There is no certainty with anything with the US anymore.
In USD terms, but the USD also lost like 10% at the same time. So we are down 18% from ath basically.
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Yes thatâs what Vanguard said in interview. They said market preference is this and hence they built their product around it
Donât forget that they also serve the same purpose as Swiss pension funds. So, their allocation strategies are pretty similar. Okay, maybe except Swiss real estate allocation 
, but the general idea is the same.