Chronicles of 2025

What would be better about doing that?

I’ll hazard a guess: chance for timing the market in case the shitshow resumes in July. And if it doesn’t resume in July aren’t we soon back in the OMG VALUATIONS narrative?

Google’s earnings were a good sign though.

Some sobering outlook :slight_smile:

Higher starting yields have improved the riskreturn tradeoff in fixed income. Bonds are still back. Over the next decade (and currency-hedged into Swiss francs), we expect 0.3%-1.3% annualised returns for US bonds and 0.2%-1.2% for global ex-US bonds1. This view reflects a gradual normalisation in policy rates and yield curves, though important near-term risks remain.

While the US equity return outlook over the next decade at -1.2%-0.8% (for Swiss franc investors) may appear overly cautious—as does the outlook for global equities at 0.2%-2.2%, given that 68% of this universe consists of US equities—the range of possible outcomes is wide and valuations are rarely a good timing tool

The strong outlook for fixed income together with a more cautious long-term view for US equities means that—for investors with an appropriate risk profile—more defensive portfolios may be appropriate, given that the extra compensation for taking on more risk remains low relative to history. We expect a 60/40 portfolio to return 0.4%-2.4% over the next decade.

Source -: Vanguard

Note -: I think this report was published before the global equity crash of 20% in CHF terms. So I think the next report will have higher expected returns although it would depend on GDP outlook.

Excellent video by probably the best Greek financial youtuber (he’s a prof. of economics, and is not Varoufuckis thankfully). The curated autotranscription is 100% accurate as he speaks very clearly, gives a well-researched analysis of Trump’s play so anyone who has 30 mins to sit through a video in a language unknown to them and read the transcription I’d highly recommend it.

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Huh.

The first time I see a Greek name with a ā€˜ck’ in it. Previously, I’ve only seen standalone kappa.

But I’ll take it as the truth from the native speaker, of course.

:wink:

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You’re too negative – the shutting down of US audit regulation and thus rising US equity valuation will easily offset a further sinking USD:


(Source: Re-Tweet by short seller Jim Chanos who famously predicted the demise of Enron)

  :wink:

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Of course - makes total sense
Whatever it takes :wink:

Maybe another twist coming

Truth social - DJT

No matter what deal I make with respect to Russia/Ukraine, no matter how good it is, even if it’s the greatest deal ever made, The Failing New York Times will speak BADLY of it. Liddle’ Peter Baker, the very biased and untalented writer for The Times, followed his Editor’s demands and wrote that Ukraine should get back territory, including, I suppose, Crimea, and other ridiculous requests, in order to stop the killing that is worse than anything since World War II. Why doesn’t this lightweight reporter say that it was Obama who made it possible for Russia to steal Crimea from Ukraine without even a shot being fired. It was also Liddle’ Peter who wrote an absolutely fawning, yet terribly written Biography, on Obama. It was a JOKE! Did Baker ever criticize the Obama Crimea Giveaway? NO, not once, only TRUMP, and I’ve had nothing to do with this stupid war, other than early on, when I gave Ukraine Javelins, and Obama gave them sheets. This is Sleepy Joe Biden’s War, not mine. It was a loser from day one, and should have never happened, and wouldn’t have happened if I were President at the time. I’m just trying to clean up the mess that was left to me by Obama and Biden, and what a mess it is. With all of that being said, there was no reason for Putin to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns, over the last few days. It makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently, through ā€œBankingā€ or ā€œSecondary Sanctions?ā€ Too many people are dying

Obama really be living rent free in Trumpā€˜s head.

He probably hates it that a black president was adored by the people and he is not.

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What? No way!

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Funny thing, the main losers and failures were his multitude of business activities.

If you don’t mind, could you go into more details regarding the indicators that you mention in the your reply to this post Chronicles of 2025 - #1627 by Mirager? :smiley:

I think everybody must find his own way. Market timing does not work in general and you will always be wrong one time or another, I was one out of 4 times.

I use a point system based on averages and the VIX Future contango. There are plenty of indicators for market state. At the moment my system does still not say we returned to a bull market and it looks like it is wrong again… too bad.

I think more important than the indicators you use is what you do with it. Don’t bet everything on one card.

Now what I do: in the momentum strategy I always use margin loan. I stop buying when my system tells me we are in a bear market and start buying again after. In my dividend strategy I buy 20-50% on credit when my timing says the bear market is over. That can cause quiet some damage, but is not live threatening.

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JD must be OOO with another handler in charge…

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Negative rates are expected, some interesting comments in the article, (paywall removed with this link)

Another insightful video from Ben Felix
TLDR -: there is a potential for index funds to improve their returns by actually not following their own rules (sometimes)… it’s estimated that the forced buying and selling lead to underperformance because on certain occasions they are forced to buy overvalued companies (eg IPOs) and sell undervalued companies (share buybacks)

Cost impact is between 0.32% to 1% in perfomance. Much higher than TER%

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So market timing within a passive ETF? :thinking:

Bit of mixed feelings on this video. I believe that it’s meant to be interesting research/insight shared, that’s the good part, but what’s one to do with it?

Maybe there will be some kind of ā€œlazy index trackingā€ ETFs, that deviate from precise index tracking through a set of predefined rules.

He already mentioned this (with less details) in a couple of previous RR videos. e.g. the one that compares Vanguard with Dimensional funds + the dedicated Dimensional video.

From research point of view this is great and very interesting. It shows that there is room from improvements.

From practical point of view, as he mentioned, Dimensional seems to implement these ideas. Though they are famous for Factor investing, they also offer an ETF to track US Market (DFUS) with no significant tilts.

Still for the vast majority of investors a single ā€œVT like and chillā€ approach is more than enough.

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