Chronicles of 2025

[Mirager]

@cubanpete_the_swiss

Bear markets are the only time when I do market timing. Because it is worth it. The worst bear market in history would then only have taken like 3 years (which is still a lot), but oh boy, you could make shittons of money after the first sell-off of more than 80%.

Most strategies do not work in bear markets. The correlations are simply too high, this time even with the dollar.

At the moment I do what Flintstone does on my avatar and what I do best: nothing.

Aren’t these bits contradictory? What I understand you’re saying (or, I say I understand because the below is my plan, so I’m biased!) is:

• I time the market by buying (+/- more than usual) because of the opportunity to make more on the upswing (which can take some years) is too good to miss
• I do nothing now because it hasn’t played out, yet

How’d you know when to buy more though, the fabled “capitulation”? I admit I’m planning to use some voodoo of moving averages.

What do you mean by “strategies do not work in bear markets”? Isn’t waiting followed by buying a strategy? And in essence if you’re not selling anything (why would anyone do that unless they had to) a strategy too?