Chronicles of 2025

But these are internal people issues. They haven’t attacked investments (yet).

Historically a key difference between Russia/USSR, China, 3rd Reich (not putting Hungary and Turkey in that basket) is that all of the above countries changed the law to be compliant with the government, not the other way around. Trump and co will have to answer hard questions eventually. Most worrying is any “we are the people” rhetoric, and there’s some of that.

Agree with your point that if it was any other country investors would have bailed.

The US part of VT has gone from 67.4% at the end of January to 65.5% by the end of March. Investors are bailing out, although veeeeeeery slowly.

Our exports of goods may falter but we seem to be exporting a good bit of the mindset of “Y a pas l’feu au lac.” Swissness has good days ahead. :laughing:

I really hope that it stays that way. It would be pity if US democracy falls apart.

Is it? 2% per quarter is 8% in a year. I think it’s very fast actually.

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That’s over 2 months so 12% a year. I guess you’re right. The big winners are Belgium, Italy, Hong Kong, Brazil, China and Germany.

I was more worried about the 8% drop of usd vs chf.
Also I didn’t really follow what’s happening with the 10y bonds, if that’s a signal.

Gals, guys, are you overboiling this egg?*

I’m trying hard to not point any fingers, but it seems many of you seem to believe we – as a species – have evolved to an order where we’re just kind of … nice to each other? No poking whatsoever, I’m cool, you’re cool.

Wasn’t it most of the time the case that people, countries, forces … just played hard ball? Regardless of country, president, this or that?

Has anything changed, really?

To be clear: I am not advocating the recent change in policy as commented by the pros or amateurs – always in the eye of the beholder --, I am just observing that (a) change is taking place (b) it’s outside of my domain of influence (c) the silverback gorilla elected in the room probably still dominates what happens on a daily basis (except for the bond market monster with the spiked club at the very back of the room).

Anyway, probably not a useful contribution (at least in this forum), but maybe food for thought anyhow.


* Bookmark this as the most over-miss-estimating sentence in this forum ever?
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Not to generalise but are you saying US was always defying rule of law and running the country by decrees ?

Maybe I missed that in last 20 years

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Yes, you did.

:wink:

Got it

Hey, I didn’t mean to call you out, but … honestly, I’ll stick to my thesis.

Not that it matters in any way anyhow. :slight_smile:

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I think no one is even arguing about the thesis. We understand that being stronger and richer works well in real world

The discussion here mainly was about if it works well in long run too. Only time will tell :slight_smile:

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Every empire fell eventually.

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Tbh I’ve never seen an empire attacking its vital parts this way. I mean a working empire. The similary-named-to-my-nickname did something like that (google great chinese famine). It’s the inward thing that is weird imho. And attacking partner nations was usually done in a different way to avoid panicking “the market”.

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And 160% in 20 years!

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And now capital markets are part of trade war

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/15/trump-tariffs-trade-china-wall-street-00291026

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65.5% is the number for all of North America. From the beginning of the year to end of March, US is down from 64.7% to 62.7%.

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I believe there’s a very high chance of Chinese companies being de-listed.

Eh, if you’re worried about capital markets mess Proposed Republican tax change would lead to spike in costs for Canadians who invest in U.S. securities - The Globe and Mail is fun too. Though as usual that someone tabled a law doesn’t mean it happens.