Chronicles of 2025

Always the other way around

Happiness is the absence of sadness :wink:

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Which is near literally nobody?
Even the ones who retired and may have drawn all of their 2nd pillar out to put into stocks - still have at least some state pension (coming up).

OK maybe you differ between “portfolio” and “net wealth”, for me the difference is not that big (as both are around asset distribution, some more, some less in our control).

I’m talking about your controllable portfolio. AHV is essentially out of scope as you can’t do anything there anyway.

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The news keep flowing about the tentative of stopping universities and citizens being arrested (or menaces of arresting people against the president). Did I mention the news about the supreme court voting against a decision of the president and him don’t care?

I can accept my portfolio tanking a bit (or more) but I’m a bit nervous if a country is tanking. Coca cola might keep bottling sugar as usual, but will VT change its base currency to bitcoin or whatever at that point ?
Shall I keep an eye on US 10y bonds to see what will happen?
I wonder if we can compare the situation right now with what happened elsewhere?

At some point, we’ll reach peak fascism and things will get better from there. This too shall pass. No need to panic.

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yes, you may compare the current situation in the states with the Situation in Russia (10 years) back, in Germany (95 years back) or probably with Turkey (20 years back)


I thought about it, the difference is that when the US Stock market goes down, all other stock markets go down as well. I don’t think it happened when TĂŒrkiye (new name, remember!) or Russia had those issues.

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Complete ignorance of Court, international law or any normal legal procedures. As per Trump „we are the law“

Reality is that it’s true that US is behaving like Russia and Turkey or Hungary or China. But investors are ignoring it due to past performance and large market.

I am pretty sure if the same was happening in small country, investors will exit and call it a day. But since its USA, the main approach is „wait and see because there is a lot at stake“ & „hope that reality is not as bad as it seems because US has checks and balances“

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But these are internal people issues. They haven’t attacked investments (yet).

Historically a key difference between Russia/USSR, China, 3rd Reich (not putting Hungary and Turkey in that basket) is that all of the above countries changed the law to be compliant with the government, not the other way around. Trump and co will have to answer hard questions eventually. Most worrying is any “we are the people” rhetoric, and there’s some of that.

Agree with your point that if it was any other country investors would have bailed.

The US part of VT has gone from 67.4% at the end of January to 65.5% by the end of March. Investors are bailing out, although veeeeeeery slowly.

Our exports of goods may falter but we seem to be exporting a good bit of the mindset of “Y a pas l’feu au lac.” Swissness has good days ahead. :laughing:

I really hope that it stays that way. It would be pity if US democracy falls apart.

Is it? 2% per quarter is 8% in a year. I think it’s very fast actually.

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That’s over 2 months so 12% a year. I guess you’re right. The big winners are Belgium, Italy, Hong Kong, Brazil, China and Germany.

I was more worried about the 8% drop of usd vs chf.
Also I didn’t really follow what’s happening with the 10y bonds, if that’s a signal.

Gals, guys, are you overboiling this egg?*

I’m trying hard to not point any fingers, but it seems many of you seem to believe we – as a species – have evolved to an order where we’re just kind of 
 nice to each other? No poking whatsoever, I’m cool, you’re cool.

Wasn’t it most of the time the case that people, countries, forces 
 just played hard ball? Regardless of country, president, this or that?

Has anything changed, really?

To be clear: I am not advocating the recent change in policy as commented by the pros or amateurs – always in the eye of the beholder --, I am just observing that (a) change is taking place (b) it’s outside of my domain of influence (c) the silverback gorilla elected in the room probably still dominates what happens on a daily basis (except for the bond market monster with the spiked club at the very back of the room).

Anyway, probably not a useful contribution (at least in this forum), but maybe food for thought anyhow.


* Bookmark this as the most over-miss-estimating sentence in this forum ever?
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Not to generalise but are you saying US was always defying rule of law and running the country by decrees ?

Maybe I missed that in last 20 years

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Yes, you did.

:wink:

Got it

Hey, I didn’t mean to call you out, but 
 honestly, I’ll stick to my thesis.

Not that it matters in any way anyhow. :slight_smile:

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