I don‘t know if the tariffs will be kept or if they will be reversed.
I just believe that the tariffs are not priced in as if they have a high chance of staying in a meaningful way.
You can‘t make good decisions in this environment, if everything hinges on Trump‘s nood and some tweets.
Excellent posting, thanks. Making a plan and sticking to it, no matter if the times are calm or rough, I would say.
100 crashes with >=50% drops? I experienced only 10 >=20% drops… the last 45 years.
It’s actually 1032 events for which a market declined by more than 50% over a 12-month period. (around minute 7).
But they’re talking about national stock markets, also looking back all the way to 1692.
Please stand back, the tarriffs are clearly CLEARLY working!
(Source)
;-)(in case anyone was in doubt about me not joking, for once)
I’ve read that Google had an announcement about their new AI Chips. That might be the real reason. ( duckduck :“ironwood”. Or bing it. or google it)
Short-term pain, long term gain!
Or was it the other way around?
The rule of (wait for) 3 days post a market shock once again worked. If you feel that the last few swings was too much for you, Mr Market found stability again. No one knows for how long. So if you want to change your long term asset allocation, think twice and if you still want to do so, do it now.
Always the other way around
Happiness is the absence of sadness 
Which is near literally nobody?
Even the ones who retired and may have drawn all of their 2nd pillar out to put into stocks - still have at least some state pension (coming up).
OK maybe you differ between “portfolio” and “net wealth”, for me the difference is not that big (as both are around asset distribution, some more, some less in our control).
I’m talking about your controllable portfolio. AHV is essentially out of scope as you can’t do anything there anyway.
The news keep flowing about the tentative of stopping universities and citizens being arrested (or menaces of arresting people against the president). Did I mention the news about the supreme court voting against a decision of the president and him don’t care?
I can accept my portfolio tanking a bit (or more) but I’m a bit nervous if a country is tanking. Coca cola might keep bottling sugar as usual, but will VT change its base currency to bitcoin or whatever at that point ?
Shall I keep an eye on US 10y bonds to see what will happen?
I wonder if we can compare the situation right now with what happened elsewhere?
At some point, we’ll reach peak fascism and things will get better from there. This too shall pass. No need to panic.
yes, you may compare the current situation in the states with the Situation in Russia (10 years) back, in Germany (95 years back) or probably with Turkey (20 years back)…
I thought about it, the difference is that when the US Stock market goes down, all other stock markets go down as well. I don’t think it happened when Türkiye (new name, remember!) or Russia had those issues.
Complete ignorance of Court, international law or any normal legal procedures. As per Trump „we are the law“
Reality is that it’s true that US is behaving like Russia and Turkey or Hungary or China. But investors are ignoring it due to past performance and large market.
I am pretty sure if the same was happening in small country, investors will exit and call it a day. But since its USA, the main approach is „wait and see because there is a lot at stake“ & „hope that reality is not as bad as it seems because US has checks and balances“
But these are internal people issues. They haven’t attacked investments (yet).
Historically a key difference between Russia/USSR, China, 3rd Reich (not putting Hungary and Turkey in that basket) is that all of the above countries changed the law to be compliant with the government, not the other way around. Trump and co will have to answer hard questions eventually. Most worrying is any “we are the people” rhetoric, and there’s some of that.
Agree with your point that if it was any other country investors would have bailed.
The US part of VT has gone from 67.4% at the end of January to 65.5% by the end of March. Investors are bailing out, although veeeeeeery slowly.
Our exports of goods may falter but we seem to be exporting a good bit of the mindset of “Y a pas l’feu au lac.” Swissness has good days ahead. 
I really hope that it stays that way. It would be pity if US democracy falls apart.
