maybe that was the target to achieve in the first place?
Go in, kick down the doors, threaten everyone… then play the nice guy to apply only 10% tariffs?
“the art of the deal” in a day of a poker player 
(I guess he will fold latest at the River)
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If you believe that, shouldn’t you sell NOW?
Or it is just fear?
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I think all this is to cause a reversion to the mean.
US has outperformed many years due to assumption that other markets are not that interesting as US.
Now the tide is turning and US is under question. This would invariably force investors to ask for higher risk premiums which means lower valuations
It’s unfortunate for world ETF investors because all of them are heavily exposed to US. But maybe not that unfortunate for average foreign investor who is typically quite biased to domestic stocks.
Nevertheless -: everyone will end up getting 4-5% real returns over a long period of time. The breakdown during the period might vary
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I don‘t know if the tariffs will be kept or if they will be reversed.
I just believe that the tariffs are not priced in as if they have a high chance of staying in a meaningful way.
You can‘t make good decisions in this environment, if everything hinges on Trump‘s nood and some tweets.
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Excellent posting, thanks. Making a plan and sticking to it, no matter if the times are calm or rough, I would say.
100 crashes with >=50% drops? I experienced only 10 >=20% drops… the last 45 years.
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It’s actually 1032 events for which a market declined by more than 50% over a 12-month period. (around minute 7).
But they’re talking about national stock markets, also looking back all the way to 1692.
Please stand back, the tarriffs are clearly CLEARLY working!
(Source)
;-)(in case anyone was in doubt about me not joking, for once)
I’ve read that Google had an announcement about their new AI Chips. That might be the real reason. ( duckduck :“ironwood”. Or bing it. or google it)
Short-term pain, long term gain!
Or was it the other way around?
The rule of (wait for) 3 days post a market shock once again worked. If you feel that the last few swings was too much for you, Mr Market found stability again. No one knows for how long. So if you want to change your long term asset allocation, think twice and if you still want to do so, do it now.
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Always the other way around
Happiness is the absence of sadness 
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Which is near literally nobody?
Even the ones who retired and may have drawn all of their 2nd pillar out to put into stocks - still have at least some state pension (coming up).
OK maybe you differ between “portfolio” and “net wealth”, for me the difference is not that big (as both are around asset distribution, some more, some less in our control).
I’m talking about your controllable portfolio. AHV is essentially out of scope as you can’t do anything there anyway.
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The news keep flowing about the tentative of stopping universities and citizens being arrested (or menaces of arresting people against the president). Did I mention the news about the supreme court voting against a decision of the president and him don’t care?
I can accept my portfolio tanking a bit (or more) but I’m a bit nervous if a country is tanking. Coca cola might keep bottling sugar as usual, but will VT change its base currency to bitcoin or whatever at that point ?
Shall I keep an eye on US 10y bonds to see what will happen?
I wonder if we can compare the situation right now with what happened elsewhere?
At some point, we’ll reach peak fascism and things will get better from there. This too shall pass. No need to panic.
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yes, you may compare the current situation in the states with the Situation in Russia (10 years) back, in Germany (95 years back) or probably with Turkey (20 years back)…
I thought about it, the difference is that when the US Stock market goes down, all other stock markets go down as well. I don’t think it happened when Türkiye (new name, remember!) or Russia had those issues.
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Complete ignorance of Court, international law or any normal legal procedures. As per Trump „we are the law“
Reality is that it’s true that US is behaving like Russia and Turkey or Hungary or China. But investors are ignoring it due to past performance and large market.
I am pretty sure if the same was happening in small country, investors will exit and call it a day. But since its USA, the main approach is „wait and see because there is a lot at stake“ & „hope that reality is not as bad as it seems because US has checks and balances“
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