Chronicles of 2025

Who the F knows anymore. Staying the course, no action for a few more months, then reassess.

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Looks like we need a chatbot to answer current tariffs as they keep on changing everyday

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Fortunately the professionals are keeping up, avoiding yet another strain on the economy
 wait


Interpretations of the multiple executive orders, social media posts, and customs alerts have some U.S. companies and industry groups trying to figure out when the new tariffs will be deployed. “There has been some confusion on what President Trump has said in social media posts on when the tariff starts and what is written in the executive order,” said Jarred Varanelli, vice president of U.S. sales at logistics firm Savino Del Bene. “Social media posts are not law on the pause and increase in tariffs. With the constant changes to the regulations, all customs brokers in our industry have a difficult task ahead of them.” Despite President Donald Trump saying numerous times tariffs are in effect and being collected, U.S. shippers told CNBC they have not been charged higher tariff rates on their containers, some of which came in as late as Thursday.

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Imagine being a customs officer, receiving a ship from eg Ghana loaded with cocoa beans, and needing to apply a customs tariff, then the next shipment that comes has a different tariff applied, then it’s pause for 3 months, then some sap like Bulb Energy Ltd bought at spot priceaahahahaha, shitshow.

China is pushing for more concessions

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Hard to read with that many typos.
They need to use agentic AI for a reviewing agent to check the outputs of the generating one.

(Source)

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TL:DR

  • market crashes happen, every time it’s different, because if it was the same then there wouldn’t be a crash
  • 100something market crashes with >=50% drops studied showed positive returns after the crash
  • All these crashes were different, and had different associated narratives, so while they were different, the outcomes were not
  • crashes are rare opportunities to gain self-awareness in terms of real risk tolerance as well as opportunities to buy cheap
  • Making a plan in calm times and sticking to it in rough times is a key to success

Edit: some real brain rot on reddit (what did I expect) with headless chicken calling Ben Felix a “shill”. As Jeremy Clarkson put it “some people really have started mating with vegetables”.

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I disregarded the article mostly when I read the paragraph in which they say that “investing is a zero sum game, for somebody to win, someone else needs to lose”.

This is just objectively wrong and only really applicable for daytraders etc.

Literally everyone wins when just investing in the broad market. Nobody loses, when buy&holding.

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100% and I too essentially stopped putting much effort into the article after this sentence. Then if you make it to the end it becomes a selling spiel.

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When I watched the video, this was the most important takeaway. „Evaluate your risk tolerance“

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Serves me right for only skimming the article before posting it here. Will try to do some better due diligence the next time.

Uuuh
 wait no, it was a test and you all passed, congrats :wink:

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All in.

With sentiment so low, I think there could be buying opportunities here (of course with a lot of risk too). I wish I had more money to invest!

Finpension screwed up my rebalancing and now I missed out on the low of the last Tuesday. Tomorrow is the next trading day and it seems to be a lot higher than last Tuesday. There are no bounds to my luck :smiley:

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I could see another big drop from here. In my opinion the market is still in denial and hasn‘t priced in the tariffs much.

If the tariffs are staying and US policy staying erratic, we will go lower I‘m very sure of that.

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close for 8th April MSCI ACWI (ref SSAC.SW)-: 69.32
current levels -: 69.82
I dont see this as huge difference

Is your portfolio heavily skewed towards US?

I don’t see the reciprocal tariffs staying at all. heck apart from china, they haven’t even been applied.

worst case, we wait 4 years until the next president removes them.

And in these 4 years we will have a depression then, as economic growth slows.
Plus the lasting damage to economic policy expectations with the US.

Even the baseline 10% tariffs will cause some economic growth slowdown.

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