Chronicles of 2025

Don’t worry, on Monday it might get into red zone as well. Most markets are in free fall these days.

QQQ futures are down by 2.25% as well after 5.35% yesterday.

Until we see an intervention in US (from within USA), there is no positive catalyst in sight to get out of this self induced market fall.

I hope there is no insider activity via US officials where they buy huge chunks of Stock market & then suddenly Trump announce, he is going to walk back on some of these tariffs.

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If anything if/when the EU, Asian countries, Mexico, Canada, Australia announce reciprocal and hurtful tariffs I’d expect everything to fall further.

No they only do that with crypto. They wouldn’t ever do insider trading with stocks. Absolutely not. Fuhgeddaboudit.

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Retaliation tariffs should be targeted and to benefit local companies. Randomly applying tariffs to cheaper imports where we don’t have local industry would be bad

China just announced retaliatory 34% tariffs as well as export controls on rare earth minerals.
Market is taking another plunge right now.

This will get really ugly.

Also @dbu now all the gains are gone :joy: literally took a couple minutes. SPI just dropped another 2%

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Edit -: you might not need to wait until Monday

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SLICHA is bleeding :rofl: Sayonara to my positive position :smiling_face_with_tear:

In the meantime, I have to wait until April 25, 2025 for my monthly investment. Perhaps by then the market will have fallen by more than 20%, which will mean a sell-off for the next purchase (SLICHA). My allocation is still 18% CH and 82% World, and I’m aiming for around 30% CH and 70% World.

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Red is my new favourite color :sweat_smile:

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Look, I see that everyone is fed up with this discussion. I also fail to see how VAT acts in the same way as tariffs, but I was trying to stay open minded and not intervene. So, I propose the following:

  • We stop this discussion.
  • If you have some authoritative sources, please post.

I know it sounds weird, but no, the rambling of Mr. Trump and his government is not an authoritative source, as was pointed out by many professional economists.

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Edging towards my -20% buy target :smiley:

No worries, I don’t think Cortana has invested the proceeds from his apartment sale, so you might want to wait for that :wink:

If I would feel uncomfortable being -20% YTD with 150k, I won‘t make it past my first million.

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This only works in a reasonable amount of time if your portfolio is small compared to your contributions. I am now adding peanuts every month that hardly make a dent in the AA.

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Yeah. It would take time. But I am already at 50% so slowly it would adjust. I only started in Feb 2021 , so portfolio is only 5X of annual contributions for now

For 1000 CHF, assuming you have significantly more assets aside, I would not fret it and follow my feelings right now.

I’d be long for today, as there has tended to be a green day after the major drops these last years (though that’s not a 100% occurrence and may not happen today, of course). Then I’d switch short again until I’m significantly convinced there’s a real bounce coming. I’d expect us to reach at least bear market territory this time around, though that can come with significant volatility able to kill a (leveraged) short position even if the general direction is right.

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You never know what you wish for :slight_smile:

I was wondering about a previous comment about trade deficit. What if at some point someone decides to buy oil and gas with another currency in order to improve their deficit? That could be the real beginning of the end of the world as it is.

I’ve heard it the other way around: foreigners (including states and institutions) buy treasuries because they have a surplus of $ they can’t easily get rid of, as they sell more in the US than they buy from them.

There are different reasons why people sell to US. Of course it a big market to sell. But if a country wants to completely eliminate their sales to US, they run into trouble as they need to get USD to get oil etc

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Now the US have said they’ll look at tariffs for pharmaceutical companies next, which lead to Novartis and Roche taking a dive (which are currently excluded from the 31%).

It’s not easy to buy Oil & Gas without using USD. Gas might be easier but Oil is more difficult. I don’t know if it’s a law or convention.