I wanted to try out a new strategy and test a theory. Everytime I do lump sum investments the market usually drops by at least 10% the next days/weeks. So I was curious if the market will gain at least 10% if I sell a chunk.
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Thank you for not selling your apartment and investing these money in stocks, by the way!
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I would love to see some publications from, say, the first half of eighties arguing that Japanese stocks is the place to be and the rest of the world is not worth investing. @cubanpete_the_swiss , do you remember this kind of sentiments?
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Itâs always like this. Few dare to speak against the prevalent narrative.
Earlier Japan was the place to be. Now US is place to be. Itâs easy to say US will remain a winner. Itâs tough to say it wonât.
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Well the US has been the overall winner for over 100 years now. Donât see that changing anytime soon.
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Like I saidâŠ.. 
But if everyone know this for a fact then shouldnât this be already reflected in price of the US stocks?
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Well there are still too many hopeless romantics out there 
So US stocks keep getting undervalued.
Lets be honest: if you were allowed to only invest in one country in the world, wouldnât it be the US?
I wonder what will happen when eventually retail will run out of dry powder. Panic?
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If I was allowed to only invest in one country, it would definitely not be US.
This is not because of returns . Itâs because itâs not a reliable country anymore.
I would rather have lower returns than link all my fortunes to unreliable country.
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Will only happen during recession.
Not sure what you mean, US retail investors are not the most famous for having large amount of cash savings
Iâm sure some hedge funds are monitoring liquidity levels somehow to see when the support would break.
(Not going to change my investment strategy, mostly curious about it)
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Would be Switzerland without any doubt for me 
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I think US retail investors buy equities every month. So that should fuel the market until bad things happen
Personal Saving Rate (PSAVERT) | FRED | St. Louis Fed savings rate is not huge, and with the (temporary) inflation due to tariffs, might not help
Although the US is certainly the most diverse economy and the biggest. Always the home country for me, if I would only be allowed one and my home country has a diverse and big enough stock market. Which is the case for Switzerland.
Expropriation risk is real and I can be more sure that my country protects me as an investor more than another country, where I am not resident.
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Actually, that would be Switzerland.
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What? Did I miss something or are all the universities gone and the biggest companies in the world are moving abroad?
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For me it doesnât matter if US has biggest Universities or biggest companies. What matters is what is their policy and how they follow rules. In fact amongst top Universities, there is an issue now that if they donât toe the line, their funding is in trouble. Same for law firms. If they take cases against govt, they will be forced to run out of business. If a country doesnât agree with US foreign policy then they cannot do business with US (example Venezuela secondary tariffs).
Imagine if US announce tomorrow that they are applying sanctions on Denmark because of Greenland and any country that trades with Denmark will face 100% tariffs for US imports.
If you think they are very reliable then itâs fine. I donât think so.
Just to be clear. I am not saying I do not want to invest in US. Itâs a large market and cannot be ignored but it does comes with its risks. You asked if I had choice to invest in only one country, would it be US and I said NO. It would actually be CH or IN because I feel they will act in my best interests if bad things happen.
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The proposed tariffs on Chinese ships might further hit US farmers and perhaps also the commodity traders in turn.
ADM and Bunge stock price is about the same as a decade ago. Theyâve gone nowhere with an interesting blip post-covid.
Maybe these additional tariffs could tip the stock prices lower still to a point where they become attractive?
ADM and Bunge are both already hitting their 200 SMAs, could they fall another 30-50% to re-visit their covid lows?
