Check this: What is your investment strategy for 2025? - #3 by Mirager
If we want to stick our finger in the air and write articles about correlations one could say “they get it wrong every third year in a row, the last 4-5 years”. The boundaries are -25 to +20%, that’s pretty wide, it’ll be somewhere there. For sure the line will move to the right, whether it’ll be green or red…who knows 
Edit: in China it’ll be red if in the RoW it’s green because…because.
Which one, he has loads
The one about others being greedy haha
Spx has a standard deviation of 18%? So with a chance of 2/3 we will get it between say -9% and 27% this year. Two standard deviations will get us 95% confidence in an outcome that is between -27% and 45%. Roughly so, as the distribution is not exactly notmal.
Disclaimer: I don’t believe at all in any macro or charts, but I like it for the entertainment.
Consumer Staples:
Currencies:
…Energy:
Returns This Century:
Oh, and, election related (I really like this one):
Source: TCAF show 1-16-25
Discussed in JC’s Revenge | TCAF 174
Here comes another move and this time US pulled out of OECD corporate tax treaty
What’s next ?
Capital gains tax on foreign investors in US markets ?
You are right. Actually historically the forecast direction mostly was right but from an absolute value to conservative.
That’s one way to view that graph. Another way is that 28% of the years had a contraction, and for all of those years the average forecast predicted growth and thus had the direction wrong.
Is anyone keeping track of all the changes happening? I try to list some that I found:
How to position for this?
I was already positioned for gold and energy, but big tech is under-represented in my portfolio.
I think there is a short term and long term impact
Short term -: might be good for US stocks as it’d targeting to boost their earnings
Long term -: might make people wary of investing in US & change global trade relations because it seems the policies are only valid until the regime change. New government essentially backed out of all major agreements which were initiated / signed by previous one
It’s tough to estimate the long term impact easily. Not sure what to do 
maybe nothing
Trend following 
I was wondering whether trend following would perform will if there is a lot of whipsawing flip-flopping type of actions.
Something to keep in mind is that it was clearly signaled he’d want US taxes to go lower and have foreigners fund the US government (tariffs, but also see the recent threat of doubling withholding taxes)
I might istall duolingo and start learning mandarin.
Also I might start investing in WEBG together with VT
Depends on the strategies time horizons and how quick the flip flopping is.
But if it does flip flop a lot, outside of staying cash, there is not much you can prepare for probably.
Maybe betting on the volatility itself, but there is not much outside of VIX related for stocks.
Not sure how good your German is but I learnt a lot from this recent interview with Felix Zulauf, who has a Swiss-based view on the world of finance.
In a nutshell, he recommends gold and other real assets, such as real estate as he sees a debt crisis looming.
I’ve already tilted this way: accumulating gold, some commodities and real estate as well as making long term fixes on debt. More economically tied commodities (such as oil, copper etc.), I would like to get more into but would wait for an economic slowdown before investing there.
commodities on justetf seems so bad. mostly going down and not even sideways.
I have watched a couple of his interviews in English, he makes a convincing thesis but still don’t personally feel confident to do anything other than stack cash and wait.
How does/could/should one approach this situation (portfolio size 150-300k):
Given that’s my situation I have decided to…do nothing.
With an asset allocation plan and cheap broker, you can easily allocate even small amounts to whatever, as long as it is securitized (e.g. ETF) and allows you to buy fractional shares.
So it sound to me more like you don’t believe in gold or real assets. Which is totally fine.
What are you waiting for while stacking cash?
If you mean non-productive assets then you’re right. I understand a portfolio lacking any exposure to anything other than stocks and bonds is lopsided but I have an aversion to gold.
Waiting for a correction (aware of Peter Lynch’s statement about money lost waiting for rather than in corrections), if it doesn’t come when my stacked cash+emergency fund are 10% of my portfolio and 3 months’ expenses then I plan to add that money in crisis alpha securities like managed futures and fill up the 3A for the tax break. If a correction comes then I’d put all that’s saved (minus emergency funds) in my main ETFs of choice and 3A, and depending on the depth of the correction, something leveraged. I missed the correction of last summer due to lack of liquidity.
