Not at all. Stocks is all you need for the growth, everything else are diversifiers.
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Ahem. âSilk underwear need capable assesâ we say in Greece, meaning not everything is for everyone, all the time, and to want something needs you to be up to it. I mean we canât debate the benefits of diversification, VT is diverse but not diversified, the unicorn portfolio will have several uncorrelated asset classes so when something goes down something else will rise and allow selling high to buy low.
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In my opinion/understanding: this is important if you are consuming your portfolio OR if you are being evaluated on your assets management skills one way or another. If you are accumulating for yourself and have many years to go, what important is long term expected return. Do you know other assets that are expected to grow long term stronger than stocks?
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Is this chart trying to imply that XLE is about to break out of a cup and handle formation. Given that I just sold my Oil stocks, the timing seems right for that! 
IIRC thatâs what the guy with the charts implied. They discuss it about an hour into their podcast: https://youtu.be/aWWrla7vC3U?si=GX4Ns2cX94ifXAt9&t=3543
He actually thinks other commodities will do even better, but it wonât happen without energy participating.
Damn right you are! 
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In my view, times have changed over the weekend and I think it was time to prepare for Block Building (Borders and potentialy confiscation of foreign assets) and probably even a Shooting War either within the EU or among China and the States (non-nuclear).
Therefore, I am currently considering a heavy shift in asset LOCATION: meaning to reduce geographical layers between myself and my investments (Brokerage, Fund Domicile) and to Diversify Fund Locations. What does this mean:
- Keep a decent share in CH Domiciled Products (reducing expposure to IE as Fund Location), even if there is a Tax Drag
- Directly investing in some UK Based Funds that offer direct, UK based custody at the fund company (research ongoing)
- Keeping IE based Funds in a Europe vased, Non-CH Brokerage
I further consider changing my asset ALLOCATION:
- Increasing Gold Exposure and potentially holding some physical
Considering these moves were drastic. I will now wait for a month and re-consider then, before Instart to implement.
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Leverage with uncorrelated assets 
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Why reducing IE domicile and moving away from CH broker?
I guess it could go both ways. If Trump really mends fences with China and Russia and we go back to boom times, then Chinese and Russian stocks should get a big boost.
Just because assets are uncorrelated, doesnât mean that something will go up if something is going down. In fact, that would be negative correlation.
True, negative correlation is the unicorn.
Bonds have typically been used, but weâve seen this relationship break down so you canât rely just on that. I guess if you diversify into many different asset classes, it can help, but then you probably also suffer from reduced returns and still donât get a perfect hedge.
So I think we have to start with abandoning the idea of ever getting a perfect inversely correlated asset, but just have enough that we can benefit from re-balancing.
I remember seeing results that it doesnât even need much allocation to benefit from re-balancing.
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You wouldnât even want that. That would have negative expected return, as the stock market goes up way more on average, than it goes down.
An actually it does exist: you just short the market.
The ideal asset would be something that has negative correlation during bear markets, and positive/uncorrelated returns during other environments. While having good positive expected returns itself.
CAOS kind of does that, but the return expectation outside of fast crashes is not that great. And during slow moving bears it will not do well.
Thatâs when trend following generally does well.
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CH Domicile at a CH Broker has a better Chance of surviving a fatal atack on IE. Clearly, if IE goes down, chances are that e.g. UK Assets held in a CH fund are gone as well (as UK assets were likely kept in the UK); but at least the US Assets should survive (as the CH fund directly holds them in the US). So long story short, its one single point of failure less.
Eu Broker (for e.g. IE ETF) does the reverse. Meaning that it increases the likelyhood of keeping the assets in case of a fatal attack on CH.
I understand, but find the likelihood of that level of global breakdown (among nominal or real allies, at least not declared enemies) approaching âwe have bigger problems than our investmentsâ scale.
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One would have thought we are already buying enough of their deficits (Treasuries). Tarriff hikes - wouldnât it be primarily the US consumer funding those - of course saying foreigners pay them is decisively more popular.
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Deepseek evolution is shocking. Spending millions where US companies are spending billions is amazing achievement.
But I think it also gives hope to other countries who might be thinking they are falling far behind in AI race
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Itâs a strange reaction. I think they are interpreting this wrongly. While Deepseek shows that you can train more efficiently, I donât think this implies fewer GPU sales. If anything, the move to test time compute implies a lot more computing power will be needed.
Decided to bite on AMD.
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