The USD is just not stopping currently. Absolutely ridiculous. Another 0.5% jump after the job report.
I honestly don’t care much for market volatility, but my paychecks buying me less USD every month is really damn annoying. Double whammy. market getting more and more expensive and my salary paying me even less stocks. Reall not fun combo.
We are now lower than 1 3/4 years ago. In that time USD cash also paid ~9% interest and the CHF ~2%.
But doesn’t it also mean that your actually portfolio has appreciated in value in CHF terms?
I assume it’s much larger than new contributions.
Correct.
It is much larger, but not yet at a point where new contributions aren‘t still significant.
But 2/3 of my margin loan is also USD (of course with offsetting assets)
It just feels bad paying into the market with new money.
<Frivolous Goofy asking the market gods for punishment>
That’s why about 80% of my paycheck now comes in in USD.
Indeed.
Double whammy.
Follow me for more advice on taking unhedged and irresponsible currency risk!
</Frivolous Goofy asking the market gods for punishment>
All meant in jest, let’s not start another hedging vs. not sub-thread, pretty please …? 
Okay.
Jurien Timmer of Fidelity:
we remain in the sweet spot of favorable financial conditions and growing earnings. That’s the upper left quadrant of the market cycle clock below. The risk for 2025 is that we move from top left to top right, with earnings growth remaining positive while financial conditions tighten up.
Perhaps the last few weeks of December were already a hint in that direction, with market breadth falling away and only the Mag 7 running the show. If so, rather than expecting a continuation of 2024’s “bullish broadening” momentum, perhaps in 2025 we should look for a repeat of 2018 (growing earnings and rising rates) or even 2023 (narrow absolute and relative leadership).
(Source)
I wonder how they measure financial conditions. I didn’t think that financial conditions were very tight over the past few years.
I feel the trace should be substantiallly offset leftwards.
Wakey wakey, the day is fat 
The “year” is a nothingburger, yet.
Yes indeed, I second that.
Not much profit YTD.
(Edit: rhyme continuation attempt went unnoticed, fail 
)
One for our doomers and preppers out there:
Composition of the United States Public Debt by Security
(Source)
What’s government account series?
According to the provided link, this is the source of the data: Monthly Statement of the Public Debt (MSPD) | U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
Good luck in finding out what the government account series is.
(IMO, it doesn’t really matter from a doomer perspective, though: leave out the brown part, adjust the extension of the y axis, cry foul regardless)
Yea sure doesn’t really matter, most is just government bonds. i was just curious for curiosity’s sake 
Wow, a little more than half of debt is maturing in next 10 years. Crazy amounts
Taking a grandpa look and leaning in not to be heard “don’t worry, we’ll just print some more bonds, we’re good for it”.
Grandpa continues, whispering, "Son, what other country of our size is going to take our place?
“Insert Buffett quote here”
I give a 20% chance that SPX does not fit between the boundaries of these forecasts.
Wonder how established companies like City take part of these shameless acts. They think everyone forgets it anyway.
Check this: What is your investment strategy for 2025? - #3 by Mirager
If we want to stick our finger in the air and write articles about correlations one could say “they get it wrong every third year in a row, the last 4-5 years”. The boundaries are -25 to +20%, that’s pretty wide, it’ll be somewhere there. For sure the line will move to the right, whether it’ll be green or red…who knows 
Edit: in China it’ll be red if in the RoW it’s green because…because.
Which one, he has loads
