I agree
For now not much can be done
But this will lead to a time when nothing can be done to reverse the ill effects of such policies
I just hope it happens during my lifetime 
What is great though is that these polices are supposed to be helping US but all assets that are driven by US government are suffering (S&P, Russell, BTC, Job creation in US, inflation in US, even Tesla:))
By the way is that really the case? When I checked it looked like it was mostly a favor of the NL government (whoâs the one doing the export control). NL government aligns with the US, so yes right now things can be seen as decided by the US, but with changing geopolitics that might not be the case in the future.
edit:
Should a similar security assessment to the one underpinning the US restrictions also be made by the Dutch authorities, exports of DUV immersion lithography systems to these specific locations could also be affected.
Seems like this confirms it. If anything the chips (pun intended ) are on ASML side here, the US canât do anything without those systems and is very far from replicating them (they also use super advanced Zeiss component from Germany)
Yes. The US pressured NL. At one point NL tried to make a stand but weâre quickly put back in their box by the US.
Since ASML depends on a lot of US components, the US could theoretically stop their operations.
I wouldnât know at all. I am just reurgitating news I think I read in the past 6-12 months or so.
So, just guessing â but I would be actually be willing to bet money on â that the US basically says where ASML can export to.
In my totally only qualitative recollection of things I feel like I remember ASML going down every time the US threatened or enacted âadvanced chipsâ export restrictions except for family and friends (even Switzerland seems to be excluded now according to complaining local academia nd headline newspapers)
All this can only be solved with real end to end Chips supply chain independence/ trade agreements . From rare earths to chips production to cloud services to AI data centres. Everything. AI summit talked a lot about AI but not about overall supply chain.
Time for EU to step up the game. Itâs difficult but not impossible.
I just got really scared reading all the chat here.
Of course you should go through all possible scenarios, but in my opinion itâs a bit very pessimistic and almost naive to think that the US is closing its market to foreign investors.
Or am I the only one who thinks so?
Which move do you mean if I may ask?
Sorry there is really too much noise in the news for me.
+1
I probably prefer VXUS over EXUS/IXUA due to volume, TER, underlyings.
But on the other hand: lower TER does not mean anthing. It probably make sense to diversify anyway, e.g. VTI + IXUA. Therefore, not all eggs are in one basket.
I am currently and still into VTI, but have reduced my investments and went into CHF. I am personally expecting a further downturn (yes, I try to time the market 
).
I am kind of a contrarian, so I like this mindset which probably reflects the majority.
I will not change a single element of my investing strategies because of the impact of politics. Most of that is unforeseeable and our mind plays tricks on us; after the fact we think we should have known before. But guess what: we couldnât except with a lucky guess.
I donât think US is closing market for investors.
However US is losing credibility and hence use of US brokers, US funds , US domiciled ETFs is becoming concerning for some.
Trump pushing EU to spend 800B in defense, more spending â more government borrowing-> higher interest rate, Iâm not even considering inflation. Letâs whatâs the NBS will announce the 22nd of march for now ECB cut IR.
That seems like a fairly simplistic view on interest rates, more government spending doesnât necessarily lead to higher interest rates (it also depends on economic outlook, inflation, etc.)
Germany was in recession (which means we were going towards more rate cuts), the spending will hopefully revive the industrial base, which might slow down the rate cut (but we might still see further rate cuts, itâs unclear if we reached the neutral point).
That doesnât tell us much for the CHF rates tho, CHF is often a âsafeâ currency and gets a lot of pressure during crisis (which might force the SNB to lower rates to make it less attractive).
EU debt to GDP -: 88%
US debt to GDP -: 124%
Not sure why spending on defence is bad for EU but not bad for US. Security independence is a must for every economy.
I agree that a lot of money is spent since Cold War on defence to fight a war that never really happened but unfortunately thatâs the reality of human race. You always need to be strong.
I also think spending in EU will lead to multiplier effect in economic output. So the GDP would also increase
Spending for the sake of spending (like building an airport which no one use , developing real estate in areas where no one lives , etc) is inflationary. But spending money on things that need investment is not always inflationary.
Defense is prevention on the national level. The idea is similar to insurance, but the consequences of 3rd world war somewhen in 1960th-70th are too big and are outside of what is normal in the society. Nobody would reasonably insure the consequences of a global war, and nobody would reasonably take this insurance, because the survival of the insurer is not guaranteed and not even expected.
You donât earn with prevention or an insurance, you pay it to protect from the consequences of the risk. If the risk did not materialize, we should be rather very glad.
Besides, defense spending, if spent locally, are not lost and contribute to the national economy.
P.S. sorry, I am trying to provide a balanced view point, but we are actually approaching topics that we shouldnât.
What do you mean they donât have it? Whatâs the âSales taxâ I see discussed every time I read about the dumb way prices are shown in US supermarkets?
VAT isnât the same as a sales tax (tho they both are consumption taxes, but one difference is that sales tax stacks, e.g. you might pay it multiple times if you cross state borders). I guess for US people they see VAT is charged when something is imported into a country, so assume itâs an import tax.
VAT gets charged all along the production chain (hence âvalue addedâ) and is a bit more complicated to understand if youâre not used to it
They probably donât like the concept that the federal government charges a high percentage (Sweden 25% VAT), because the authority for charging sales tax lies on the states and cities.
What it did do however is push the longer ends of the EU bond yield curve a lot higher, as the market anticipates a lot of long dated bonds to be issued by Germany and others. More bonds issued â bond prices fall and yields rise.
Not really sure if this fits this thread, but stumbled on an insightful article about the alleged rare earths in ukraine. According to the author from Bloomberg, there are no relevant rare earths deposits in Ukraine. Ukraine initially talked up the potential to engage Trump, he believes it and no-one has bothered to actually check if its true. There is even a report with a NATO imprint with questionable research / basic errors.
Here a link to the article without paywall: https://archive.is/42xZy
Yeah, but wasnât the yield curve not in a good shape to begin with? (inverted?) This might just be fixing it, reducing the recession risk.
