It was already rather normal again before that (the very short end here can be ignored, as the ecb rate cuts were already clear and priced in essentially. For being inverted starting 2 year is getting relevant)
current (blue) and about a month before.
It just more or less shifted upwards and got steeper.
I remember reading about the riches of Ukraine when the invasion started: oil/gas around Crimea, rare earths all over, the famous âblack earthâ which is great for growing wheat (thatâs known since the middle ages).
But does VAT work that way, in import/export scenario?
Germany has an indecently high âGerman VAT/MWStâ but when I export my shopping (to Switzerland), I get a export-stamp at the border and then my German VAT is refunded. Doesnât someone/somecompany who imports Made-in-Germany product to USA-USA-USA not pay the German VAT, like I donât?
They get VAT reimbursed, the tax only applies within a particular jurisdiction. So all products sold in the EU are impacted (and all those exported are not, thereâs no distortion where one producer is at a disadvantage against another)
If thatâs true, that would be quite funny. 
Maybe the Ukrainians were speaking of this, calling it âraw earthâ cos it kinda is, and rhymes with rare earth. Certainly Donald couldnât differentiate between the two terms.
I agree with you regarding the CHF but still Switzerland cannot leave its own life it is correlated to the rest. Regarding spending I strongly believe itâs inflationary ( my own point of view) industry you need classic working force (not desk people- nothing against them) am d most of these jobs are done by new comers (immigrants) and as we have an aging population voting more and more far right I donât see how you can attract local people without increasing salaries. I think we will be back to a high interest environment before China was exporting its deflation for the last 30 years
Letâs see 
fwiw if youâre confident to make that bet Iâm sure you can find some products to bet on it.
Forecasts from 5200-6500 S&P500 close for 2025: Wall Street starts to rethink lofty S&P 500 forecasts for 2025 â BNN Bloomberg
These forecasts seem to be changing with trend ⊠are they just using trend lines on excel
Of course the market crashes after I invested my bonus again lol. Already down -20% on my UPRO positions I bought.
Weâll revisit it next year: What is your investment strategy for 2025? - #3 by Mirager
Not yet at my first buy signal though, âitâs turtles all the way down, sonâ (as an Indian, I do hope youâll appreciate it!).
Itâs nonetheless a great price you got when comparing to the last two to three years but it might take a little longer to recover. Buying down on margin might be an option too.
Now even Trump said âwe need to have long term view on stocks. China have a view of 100 years . We have a view for a quarterâ
Not sure what to make of this. But seems like
Short term pain in stocks & maybe even a recession to come for the larger good of society over long term
I guess you know you can do a lot worse than a real 3x leverage if thereâs daily volatility (e.g. if we have a sequence of mini crashes that recover).
Hey! I thought you were going to warn us before the big one!
This time the warning came months before the launch.
Jokeâs on you for not preparing.
(My cash is ready for deployment)
There, fixed your wording.
Nah, us too.
On topic, itâs going marvelously. Just need 4-5 more months of that.
Itâs unbelievable how out of nowhere we ended with a 9% decline in S&P 500.
Itâs almost US gov decided that âletâs have recession â just like we decide âletâs have a vacationâ
Not out of nowhere. The market has been bipolar for at least a year, all it needed was a spark.
