First time I see it explicitly, but over the course of the past year I’ve also anecdotally heard that Tesla should be replaced by Broadcom in the Mag7.
The issue for excluding it from this profit graph is of course that Tesla doesn’t really make a a lot of profit (and it’s been shrinking), especially with EV credits now gone.[$]
But that’s another can of worms we should probably stay away from in this topic …
[$] According to Gemini Tesla’s profits are $11’606 per minute. According to Grok it’s $9’663.
I remember the last time in a similar situation, the Mag7 were called somehow different, an acronym with the starting letters, FAANG I think.
My captain made me buy oil stocks then (like now) and I did compare my oil holdings with those stocks. I just stopped because I let them all way behind. Of course you have to know to sell… and there were many many bad years for oil stocks.
The stock market is cyclic, just some tech companies still have not found their cycle.
There were brief moments where even an uninterested investor might think “oh they actually turned that around and start making money”, and Tesla did kind of boost the whole EV industry.
One challenge I see is that investors stop seeing Musk as s Prodigy, wonder about his questionable online comments and treat Tesla like any other company.
Another is that a lot of companies can built cars. Might as well be ai powered robots for flying taxis, but even that is not that special anymore these days, and you’d need to find a way to monetize it.
As for me, I’ve decided to move some of my funds to ex-US “whole world” ETFs. I feel a lot of the current risks are concentrated in the US: Trump, AI craze, excessive valuation of growth stocks.
If the US market crashes, how much of the non-US market crashes with it? And will the ex-US market recover as quickly as the US market, or will you switch to world incl. US during the crash?
That’s a good point, I think ex-US and US are correlated to a large extent.
But I don’t really care about what happens in a crash. I’m more concerned about the long-term fundamentals, and I think something is increasingly off with the US. To be clear, I’m not entirely divesting from the US, just reducing my exposure to it. 60%+ is too much for me.
Looks like Switzerland is close to reaching a deal with the US.
Swiss stocks have gained quite a bit the last days.
Still hoping the Supreme Court is striking down the tariffs, betting markets are also predicting this actually. Although Trump has said he will just use a different reasoning to reinstate them then.
But it seems there is a lot of pushback mounting in general.
Dems gaining in surveys, putting pressure on these policies, that are evidently bad for the US consumer.
Tariffs are here to stay. Reasons might change. I don’t really think that US govt will not do what they want to do.
The whole foreign policy posture will fall apart and the White House will become lame duck if they cannot apply tariffs via tweets. I cannot conceive that they will give up on this. One way or another tariffs will be there
I think if the SC rules against, there will just be a bit of volatility as the tariffs will come back in another form/way, but unlikely to be the end unless Trump takes it as a face-saving way to revoke them. Given his love of tariffs, this seems unlikely. But he does like putting the blame on others, so I don’t rule it out completely.
It might force the decision on the legislative and then the Dems can block it potentially (or some out of line Reps). Like with the budget/shutdown recently.
From my understanding, broad-based tariffs like most of the current ones would be out, replacement tariffs would have to be targeted much more narrowly.
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