Hopefully the business has found its holy grail. Porn will apply the correct multiplier.
The day we get full body sensory VR I am gone from the world. Of course pr0n will be where Iâll spend about half my time, and games will be the other half.
He made it up, for illustration. Itâs a lot easier to make a compelling looking case when you just make up the numbers to match the thesis!
Inference for proprietary models is a high margin business, most estimates end up with a 60-80% margin. I have never seen a credible technical analysis conclude that inference is loss-making, let alone these fantasy numbers. An analyst being ignorant of that is not worth paying attention to. An analyst aware of it but choosing to make up the numbers is worth actively avoiding.
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This little analyst is a billionaire, though, so at least some of his calls must have been right. 
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Believing stuff just because itâs something a billionaire says will lead you some pretty dark places these days.
But also⊠What call is being made there? I donât see one in the quote-screenshot.
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In contrast to believing stuff written on some anonymous FIRE message board � 
I donât think you have to believe anything he says. I see it as a more of a illustrative way of saying how @Mirager already summarized it:
Anyway, for those with too much time on their hands (like me), hereâs a less doomer discussion on AI. I watched it because I value Ben Huntâs perspective who runs a company that extracts narratives from all public information that can be scraped, i.e. extracting a view of what the public interprets from seeing the real data (and, 2nd derivative, how it reacts to the narratives already out there).
Summary by Gemini:
Based on the panel discussion, here is a summary of the key opinions from the participants regarding the state of AI, its profitability, and the progress of commercial deployment (skipping audience questions after):
1. Where AI Currently Is (The State of AI)
| Participant | Key Opinion |
|---|---|
| Ben Hunt (Epsilon Theory) | AI is currently in a state where it requires massive constraint to be useful. Users must engage in context engineering to provide structure to the data and tell the AI how to think, rather than asking it open-ended questions, which leads to a âtrough of disillusionmentâ. The true source of future alpha for investors is in the continent of unstructured data. |
| Jack Kokko (Alphasense) | The key technical challenge is verifiability. For high-stakes business decisions, AI outputs must include âscaffoldingâ and âguard railsâ that allow users to trace information back to the original source to gain confidence in the conclusion. |
| Michael Cox (Piper Sandler) | Financial institutions are generally attempting to build homegrown systems (âPiper GPTâ) for IT security reasons, but he believes this is a losing âarms raceâ and that the industry will eventually need to adopt package solutions from specialized external providers. |
2. Whether it will ever be Profitable (Capex & Bubble)
| Participant | Key Opinion |
|---|---|
| Ben Hunt (Epsilon Theory) | The spending is not a bubble, but a âtrainâ that cannot be stopped. In the first half of 2025, AI capex contributed more to US GDP growth than all personal consumption. This massive spend must continue to generate a productivity boom to keep the economy out of stagflation. |
| Jack Kokko (Alphasense) | The capex is not overdone. Commitments to spend hundreds of billions on model training have no end in sight. He foresees a coming shortage on the inference side once enterprise adoption accelerates. |
| Michael Cox (Piper Sandler) | The industry is currently in the âpick-and-shovelâ boom (capex buildout). The jury is still out on whether this will lead to a profitless bust, but he notes that we are still in the very early stages of its capabilities. |
3. How Far Commercial Deployment Has Advanced (Adoption & Productivity)
| Participant | Key Opinion |
|---|---|
| Ben Hunt (Epsilon Theory) | Low Commercial Advancement. We are âa million miles awayâ from having an autonomous agent that can make a trusted, smart, differentiated decision and fully replace a junior worker. However, AI is an enormous challenge to business models (like Big Law) based on overhiring at the junior level. |
| Jack Kokko (Alphasense) | Mixed Deployment. There is a lot of âwasted AI spendâ and many internal corporate projects are failing. Conversely, in successful, specific use cases (like financial research), there is tremendous upside. The goal is to raise the bar and free up human staff to do more work faster, not to cut headcount. |
| Michael Cox (Piper Sandler) | Deployment focused on Enhancement. The goal is to use AI to raise the bar and put current employees to more productive use, not to replace them. The real commercial success will be found in companies and industries that use AI to drive incremental revenue or margin improvement (e.g., enhancing retail loyalty programs). |
Video URL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNhGsLEhoQM
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please show some respect to the billionaires among us. Thanks.
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With a decent amount of industry insiders
Lots of stress and tensions when market are at ATH in a bull market. Bubble fear etc.
I can imagine lots of stress if we crash into a bear market.
Where is the comfort zone exactly? Iâm not sure I grasp what you guys (/gals) want.
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donât forget FIRE first! 
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Enough with the FIREing, back to AI ⊠(I know you were all anxiously waiting):
âCircularityâ has become a buzzword in artificial-intelligence deals. Some investors have drawn comparisons between the megadeals of today and some excesses of the original dot-com bubble.
Hereâs a really circular[o] graph:
(Source: WSJ: Is the Flurry of Circular AI Deals a Win-Winâor Sign of a Bubble?)
o âBroadly speaking, circular financing often goes something like this: One company pays money to another as part of a transaction, and then the other company turns around and buys the first companyâs products or services. Without the initial transaction, the other company might not be able to make the purchase. The funding mechanism could take the form of an investment, a loan, a lease or something else.â
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I donât really feel any bubble, I only feel inflation in other currencies. Am I the only one?
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Will we have a rally on Monday as Bessent talks up Taco Thursday?
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The whole week will be green, probably.
Except maybe on Friday after Trump tweets 
There are also a lot of mag 7 earnings this week, and if they disappoint, that might affect prices.
GME strikes back, the Memestocks revenge:
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Roaring Kitty sounds like a dive bar or strip club, next to the barber-surgeon, laundromat and payday loan pawn shop, near Redneckville, Alabama.
That said, I googled and funnily enough I have paid attention to his posts on reddit!
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Indeed, +17% for roughly a month, after a -23% drop a few months earlier, and then back to its trend from the last few years:
GameStop executed an 11-for-10 stock split and distributed warrants with a $32 strike price to shareholders,
[âŠ]
On October 3, GameStop executed an 11-for-10 stock split. The same day, the company distributed warrants to shareholders at a ratio of one warrant per 10 shares held.
No 11-for-10 stock split happend. They only distributed a warrant for 10 shares.
Roaring Kitty returned with a $115.7 million stake in GME shares and $65.7 million in call options, reigniting meme stock excitement
I donât think that actually happend. Not in 2025 I mean.