Looks like deal similar to Japan: Client Challenge
Isnât it what Switzerland has with the EU? Itâs called âcohesion paymentsâ or something like that.
CH gets full market access (for EU countries budget is mostly funded with VAT)
Itâs a flat-fee tariff, essentially. But thatâs not a 2025 news.
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EU reached deal with US. 15% tariff.
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oh great. my hedges/shorts will be trash 
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I find it interesting that EU promised to invest 600 billion USD in US to avoid a tariff of 30% on annual export of 600 billion which doesnât even include Pharma (135 B) â Steel etc. What is the advantage of this ?
Wouldnât it be better to simply have 30% tariff and invest that 600 B in Europe?
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None of it is binding. The investment could just be buying stuff you would have bought already anyway, or loans, or up to 600 billions (but not 600 billions). See what is happening with the JP deal where nobody really knows what it means and US/JP have very different interpretations.
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You can avoid higher tariffs for now and kick the can down the road until Trump is gone.
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Yes. I would like to see the details.
I think 15% was expected. But with so many carve outs, it seems the deal is following
- Trade to be balanced using Defence & Energy imports from US .. I think the number quoted is a number for more than one year and not annual.
- 15% tariffs on approx 75% European goods exports to US (assuming Pharma & metals account for 25%)
- EU tariffs on US goods remain unchanged
So most likely green day tomorrow? What do futures say?
Not much yet (0.33% for S&P) . I think 15% was choreographed already.
But maybe US oil & gas companies can pick up tomorrow and also EU exporters slightly
Looks like EUâs investment commitment (200 B per year during trump term) and purchase commitments (250 B per year) are the biggest cause of anger in EU about US trade deal.
EU only bought 85 B USD worth of energy products last year. Is it even possible to get to 250 B USD per year?
And with respect to investments , if EU cannot control who invests in US, how were they able to make pledges?
I am wondering if EU need to tone down these commitments and only focus on tariffs. Or else this deal might not get passed by member states
For context there was around 435B USD of energy product imported in 2024. (So almost 60% would have to come from US, and thats assuming that energy import doesnât start shrinking with electrification)
Yeah they mentioned itâs not legally binding itâs just what some EU companies are planning. Just the kind of stuff thatâs often enough for Trump.
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The did add nuclear fuel in the mix. Not sure whatâs that worth
Spot on, this could still be shredded by member states but it doesnât really matter most likely. Trump will forget soon enough and move to something else. Maybe learn a new word too besides âtariffsâ. I wonder how the fifth columnites in Putinâs pocket - and hence Trump bootlickers like Hungary - will react.
Ultimately I personally think itâs just a strategy to wait it out until the orange is gone and someone with more than braincells than teeth comes along.
itâs not. Itâs a free market. You canât force companies to buy US gas.
Maybe via a heavy subsidy on US gas, and therefore incentivizing that.
About 600 B investments
âIt is not something that the EU as a public authority can guarantee. It is something which is based on the intentions of the private companies,â said one of the senior Commission officials. The Commission has not said it will introduce any incentives to ensure the private sector meets that $600 billion target, nor given a precise timeframe for the investment.
As an economist on Al Jazeera show summarized -: this is a win win for both parties . Media Win for US and a Geo strategic win for EU (to keep US as ally in Ukralne war, keep access to US goods market & secure energy & Defence supply for the short term).
Survive and advance to live another day in a very dangerous world with no real allies 
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FYI analyst also seem to think the energy purchases wonât happen (because private sector has duty to get best price and the scale is just too much)
Trumpâs EU oil and gas deal is âpie in the skyâ, energy experts warn
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The WSJ seems to think the same: Trumpâs $750 Billion Deal for U.S. Energy Collides With Market Reality - WSJ
Excerpt: âEven if the EU were to buy the entirety of U.S. crude and LNG exports, the annual value of its purchases would total only $141 billion,â according to research firm Gavekal.
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