Chronicles of 2025

Agree, but not at this cost. In war times Swiss farmers were converted to slaves and had to grow potatoes anyhow.

But protecting them in a way that we do now quits the market completely. There is no need for improvement if you make that kind of money. That way there will be no improvement, never.

Until now we could get away with it, other countries paid. But not anymore. The costs rise and rise, every industry has to pay for the farmers, even if the industry itself would need protection and is not protected. This is highly unfair!

2 Likes

:open_mouth: may I ask how much leverage are you using ?

Actually zero, as my real estate is worth more. But depending on my strategy I use up to 300% (momentum strategy) and up to 150% (dividend strategy, but only in bear markets).

Check out the details here: Mechanical investment strategies

ok, probably I didn’t phrase my question correctly.

In IBKR (and I guess it the same in all broker platforms), the credit line is tied to the assets held in the account.

For example, if I have (let’s just throw random numbers on the table) 1 Mn CHF in assets with IBKR, I might choose to limit my leverage to a fraction of that equity - for instance, keeping the loan < 300k CHF.
This would result in a ‘equity + loan’ of 700k CHF (equity: 1M, minus loan: 300k), giving a leverage ratio of 1 / 0.7 = 1.43 (relatively ‘small’ leverage, to stay on the safe side and manage the risk of margin calls in the event of a market drawdown)

1 Like

I have portfolio margin which gives you a theoretical margin multiplier of 800%. Actually at highs I do only use 112.55%. My mechanical systems make me trade contrarian to the public which has the highest leverage at highs and the lowest at bear markets. I have the highest leverage at bear markets and the lowest at highs.

In a bear market my risky strategy may go to 300% multiplier and my divi strategy to 150%. Check the link earlier to my mechanical investment thread, there you find the exact formulas.

1 Like

How boring is it when the US market is closed!

8 Likes

Wait for weekend to begin.
Don’t you remember we have a show every week.

Last week was Canada or was it Japan ?
This weekend will be focussed on love letters to 10-30 unnamed countries with the fees to do business in USA.

3 Likes

That’s why we have the crypto market :rofl:

2 Likes

And there’s now a new tariff deadline for the 1st of August. Part of me says/hopes TACO, part of me remembers Dr House/Aesop saying “eventually the wolf really does come”. Oh well, I used up all my liquidity already and feel better for it.

Letters are being sent as we speak. The deadline for implementation is 1st Aug. 12 signed and will be sent on Monday. Hopefully they use fast courier :delivery_truck: :slight_smile:

I think this time the tariffs will stay because now govt is used to getting revenue.

1 Like

“They’ll range in value from maybe 60% or 70% tariffs to 10% and 20% tariffs, but they’re going to be starting to go out sometime tomorrow,” Trump said.

That’s what markets love, clear guidance on what to expect.

Asked if countries would be afforded any flexibility with the tariff deadline, Trump said, “not really.” “They’ll start to pay on August 1. The money will start to come into the United States on August 1, in pretty much all cases,” Trump said.

„money will come into the United States“ - sounds so much better than „we‘ll heavily tax our citizens‘ consumption - hey, someone has to pay for my BBB“ :wink:

What do we make of it - an echo of the April stock market drop, more US inflation, more Fed reluctance to lower rates?

4 Likes

Nothing
We should get used to this.
This will not stop until the end of current term.

I have to say it’s very tiring for EU diplomats and other countries. Every day a new random tariff or tax is being threatened.

1 Like

Diplomats get paid extremely well, most of it tax-free too, they can do some work that’s beyond drinking cocktails :wink:

4 Likes

If anyone is interested in how large trading firms manipulate the market, read this article

Post investigation , Jane street is barred from Indian markets. They made 88 million profit in a single day trading and many such days were found in the investigation to be market manipulation.

I believe Indian regulators were tipped because a significant portion of Jane street profits came from India last year while Indian market is still much smaller compared to global markets

For reference -: 1 Crore INR ~=120,000 USD

1 Like

Doesn’t this also have to do with all the trading restrictions in India? (Limited day Trading/short selling). That probably encourages more creative ways of doing the same (and can also explain higher market inefficiencies that can be exploited for profit)

1 Like

Actually I don’t know for sure.
There are some trading rules but since I am not active in F&O , I don’t know for sure

But the article kind of shows systematic manipulation. I wonder if such things also happen in NYSE or this is limited to Indian markets where retail traders might not be so sophisticated

What I find strange is that Jane Street is supposed to be a market maker. The trading strategy that was published by the regulator seems more like an activity of a hedge fund. They are a very quantitative firm and pay interns $20k per month.

I think the Indian regulators attention came after it was revealed that Jane Street ran some very profitable trading strategy on the Indian market and Jane Street sued a Hedge Fund (Millenium) because a few employees defected and took the strategy with them, $1bn in profits in India according to the court documents (Source)

Interesting article, sounds like a
pump and dump without the illegal bit which is boosting a stock’s price by aggressive promotion.

That said, IS it illegal to manipulate the market by being a whale and doing high frequency trading? If an Indian trading firm did this in the S&P500 would they be banned?

Oh wow! Can’t believe this is happening!

Ok, sorry about the sarcasm 
 is anyone expecting anything else than manipulation when participating in markets?

Sure, when pension funds get screwed over by Enron legislation gets adjusted and when subprime mortgage backed securities suddendly aren’t Triple-A anymore thousands of pages of regulation are written 
 (and they’ll for a while protect some investors) 
 but isn’t it an essential part of the market that you can sell anything to the buyer who is willing to pay a price for it?

I know, I know, not part of the security exchange laws and what not, but 
 just reality?

Not trying to excuse any bad behaviour, just embedding it into the general behavior of human nature. Challenging the premise of the previous poster a bit: doesn’t matter whether the trading firm is large or not, the temptation to make a quick buck is always there, and there are always people willing to take the risk (on either side of the trade).

1 Like

I think every market have their rules of what is considered manipulation and what’s not. Not sure what is okay in US.