Chronicles of 2025

Did you sell Gold to buy equities or to buy CHF?
Looks like you move from one reserve asset to another

What do those two things have to do with each other if you hold CHF and live in Switzerland?

I think something is going on and we don’t know about it. I don’t know if it’s entirely about Trump.
Could it be that introduction of stablecoin act might have caused even more money to be moved from USD fiat to Stablecoin which eventually is backed by treasuries.?

Or the PLAZA ACCORD Round 2 is happening without any announcement :slight_smile:

Edit -: I followed up on news. Trump is again talking about Powell and it is pushing market to worry more

1 Like

Yes it could be. But what was the point of it? What did anyone achieve

I sold gold to buy equities on “liberation day”, and now sold the remaining gold to hold for a couple of weeks and see what’ll happen with the 9th of Jul. It was always in CHF as it was in ZGLD.

I am not surprised, it intuitively makes sense that it’d be that way.

Not sure I’m following, with today’s fx rate I get more bucks (USD assets) I may want for my bang (CHF) than 1 week ago. Of course eventually they’d need to be made into a currency I actually use, like CHF or EUR. Edit: timely, I’ll be the first to put my hand up and admit I am a dunce when it comes to currencies, though, so I am watching that thread now.

Well, it achieved not turning Europe, Russia and the US into glass, for one :wink:

For large part of 20th century, central bank were mostly gold backed (due to convertibility requirement), it took some time for them to diversify.

(note that things like gold standard are not really considered a good thing, they’re a major driver for the great depression – which arguably led to some very dark times for the world --, inflation/employment mandate yield much greater stability)

2 Likes

I have only debt in USD. OK, net in all currencies I use at least the amount of debt that I hold cash in the accounts. Cash is trash in any currency. The USA goes the Turkey way it seems


I can recommend this thread (if you are interested in US stocks, but hold CHF, the USD is not really important):

Edit: Then again, you should already have read that about a month ago. Was anything unclear?

2 Likes

But aren’t you paying higher interest on that debt vs. having it in CHF ? Which advantage do you see ?

1 Like

At least if interest risk parity holds and you can deduct the interest might be beneficial tax wise.

(Though still fairly volatile)

1 Like

It does not matter that interest is higher and the Dollar loses value. At least as long as the dividend stocks I buy with the debt pay higher dividends than the debt interest. I am no fan of currency carry trades, much risk for very little gain


There are several reasons I hold debt, mainly because inflation. I need quiet some cash for my lifestyle in different currencies and I want a little reserve, like a year or so. The debt levels out inflation. And then I live off my investments and have to take out money from time to time. I do this always with debt, me needing money is a very bad reason to sell a stock.

Addendum: just got back the tax decision returning my withholding tax. Apparently the debt interest deduction was so high that I slipped down to a very low tax bracket and therefor only get back that low tax instead of the 15% I did already pay; you only get back the lower tax. I hate that I pay more to the USA than to Switzerland where I spend more time.

I think having US debt might be a good thing
USD will keep depreciating. Maybe the debt will be worth less anyways

1 Like

Well having USD debt balances since the start of this year probably paid off well! Though I personally find it difficult to stomach paying 5-6% in interest each year.

1 Like

I think the perspective may slightly differ depending on whether one is still earning a salary in CHF - or living off dividends/capital gains in USD ?

For me, as a CHF earner, I prefer to retain my margin in CHF, since I feel it reduces my currency risk (aside from the currently higher interest rate in USD, which may - or may not - be fully offset by USD depreciation).

For you, as someone who has FIRE’d and is living off investments (denominated in USD), it might be more “practical” (also from an accounting perspective) to keep everything in USD. I’m not sure what would be financially preferable, though (under current trends, USD-denominated securities - and their dividends - loose value in CHF terms, while USD margin interest rates are likely continue to rise due to inflation, etc.) ?

Switzerland apparently about to sign a trade deal with the US. 10% tariff is staying, just as with UK.

1 Like

That‘s the best you can hope for. I‘d say we can stomach 10% for 3.X year, after that the next administration should reverse all of that bullshit.

Even if it‘s Reps again. They just fear going against Trump, but are mostly for free trade at least.

2 Likes

I would not expect a better deal for CH.
Most likely this will be partially absorbed by Swiss companies and partially by the customers in USA
The main problem for CH is actually Pharma price controls. If they go into effect, it can seriously harm business of Big Pharma

In fact I don’t think 10% would be removed for anyone. As we know the US admin is more concerned about ensuring Trump can claim victory and not anything else, so they will never allow even EU to cancel 10% tariff

1 Like

I don’t think everything need to be absorbed. It would take time though to pass on the price increases wherever possible

In general - For industries where local alternates exist, the tariffs will be absorbed by suppliers to keep market share. For industries where there is no alternative, customers will pay higher price (rare earth , chips etc). I would be surprised to see if CH exports easy to do stuff anyways. So let’s see what happens. The more problematic part is currency which would make like very difficult for exporters

Would be curious to see what Rolex will do. They don’t do crazy things will prices and try to keep customers happy. Maybe they will increase prices slowly over years to compensate

Ask the people on the waiting list if they’re happy to wait :laughing:
Rolex price increases were 5% for 2025, 4% for 2024 and 8% for 2023 (source), don’t think rolex wants to miss out on those juicy margins anytime soon.

1 Like

It’s even worse than that: Not only pay full withholding taxes even though you only get your low tax bracket percentage credited, you don’t get anything credited for the amount of interest you declared (since you wouldn’t pay Swiss taxes on that amount).