Has it ever been different in human history? Or even prehistory…
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Well … what can I say.
Market pumping one day before payday xD
Guess who sold a huge chunk of their portfolio yesterday, to buy into different funds today?
Don’t worry.
There is NATO summit going on. Pretty sure US president will give some reason for another uncertainty.
Maybe it would be like „ protection underNATO article 5 would be only given to members who achieve 5 % spending except US because of course US calls all the shots“ & then another round of pleasing and appeasing.
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No 
I wanted to or was thinking to sell my gold this week, would be with a good bit of profit - still is - but I’ll hold a bit for now. Feeling the market is bizarrely more rational than it was this time last year. Could of course be wildly wrong, but it somehow feels this way.
@Abs_max the market is eyeing rate cuts, possibly 50 times this year and another 50 when JPow retires. /closes eye, purses mouth “It’s gonna be big, beautiful, the most rate cuts in our country’s history, you’ve never seen rate cuts like these, I am not happy with JPow, he is not a smart man or a standup guy”
Edit: at LEAST it’s Article 5, imagine if it was article 50, Trump probably “thinks” 5% relates to that.
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Looks like dancing in and out around dividend date (today) hurt you? I too thought of doing it near the close of day yesterday but realised that things like these never worked for me in the past.
FYI: The December dividend dates of funds you hold and might want to exchange overlap again. just like today.
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Typically when I change positions , I try to do it within minutes. Mainly to avoid these situations where market moves substantially.
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I think if FED cut rates, it wouldn’t impact the long end of the curve because that’s mainly driven by market‘s assessment of getting their money back. But it would for sure change the short end of the curve (unless already priced in)
Having said that to keep US stock market inflation high , interest rates need to fall or else its less interesting to hold stocks vs bonds
What’s up with USD… it’s still falling even when Gold is falling , US bond yields also fell today and stocks went up.
Is it still the sign that foreigners are moving money out of USD denominated assets (currency / stocks / bonds) ?
One point I learnt the other day was that there is increased interested in currency hedging by foreigners which by itself means reduced dollar exposure while keeping equity and bond exposure intact
Agree. Seconds even.
Re rates: personally I don’t get the hard-on for lower rates. Some interest on lending is healthy in my opinion, even necessary, however the market feels otherwise.
I don’t know or try to know anymore why the market does whatever it does, did my little market timing/rebalancing game this April and got it out if my system, partially successfully, now it’s back to just buying VWRL. It just feels more robust to me than last year, maybe because Trump is full of hot air and TACO? Let’s see what happens on the 9th of Jul, tariffs back or quietly shoved under the carpet?
Edit: r/investing has a bot which goes in and reminds people that “FED” is wrong, as it’s not an acronym, while “Fed” is an abbreviation of “Federal Reserve”. I’ll see myself out. (Just back from the gym, heavy leg day, flooded with endorphins and borderline dizzy, hence my typing).
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Maybe one of the useful things from Reddit 
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The US went into yet another war, this time on their own (with Israel but without other traditionnal allies). The US president is chickening out on it, showing a lack of leadership in a time of crisis, while the debt ceiling is still in need to be risen in the background and requires tough talks (currently leading to a big increase in the US budget deficit via the Big bill). Political assassinations are happening. So are mass deportations, bound to affect the US economy in the medium run (and also, thus, tax revenue). July 9th is either Tariffs round 2: Electric Boogaloo or another show of ‘leadership’ by the current president (by creating fully predictable messes and backing off once the obvious consequences actually materialize). The military is deployed in the streets of Los Angeles. The president is also feuding with the Fed chair who led the soft landing after Covid inflation.
There are probably several other items on the burner. Pick your choice as to why investors are moving away from their trust in the full faith and credit of the US government and the USD as their reserve currency of choice.
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Trump says Spain will be punished in trade deal because they didn’t commit to 5% defence goal
Questions
- What trade deal can Spain have with US? Isn’t EU doing the negotiations
- If Spain doesn’t spend 5%, how does it impact US? Is it somehow assumed that higher defence spending will be eventually gone to US defence companies?
I am kind of surprised that Trump is so much pushy on this defence spending unless it somehow benefits USA and their local companies . On one hand EU says defence spending will be made within EU but I am confused about what’s in it for US.
Side note -: the money spent during Cold War was huge. For a war that never happened. All these spending is triggered mainly by actions of 4-5 people in the world and everyone else needs to suffer unnecessarily. If we think about it Trump, Xi. & Putin can theoretically make a deal to disarm and that can save so much money for everyone including these three countries
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If handled right, each NATO member spending 5% of GDP on defence (actually at least 3.5% on strict defence items and up to 1.5% on security-related items, like roads and other infrastructures - by 2035) should strenghten NATO, which helps all of their members, including the US.
A stretch may be to assume other countries stepping in more would allow the US to spend less themselves. I think in actuality, they’d rather divert their resources elsewhere, for example in the Pacific where they would focus on China rather than conflicts he may consider to have to be handled mainly by Europe.
Spain should just lie and wait Trump out. Then abandon the plan.
And yes it is absolutely impossible to single out any eu country in trade. Otherwise you would just i.e. ship to Portugal and they‘ll forward it to Spain. There is no customs internally in EU.
They’re definitely not planning to reach 5%.
The US can target countries individually (I guess it could target specific products mostly exported by Spain) but don’t know how effective it would be since a Spanish company can easily re-exported from elsewhere (tho obviously US might have provision to defend against this practice), but EU will only do levies as a block.
Very much, e.g. see UK spending money on F35A jets that have “dual key” (can only be used with US approval).
Interesting
What’s the point of such a plane which can only be used on approval from someone else
Maybe okay to have few but definitely need some sovereign capabilities
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From what I understand the idea is that it’s controlled by “NATO” (in practice by the US, it flies US nuclear bombs).