That’s obvious to anyone with half a brain cell, TACO is where the market is 
Other than that, their prediction doesn’t seem too bad…?
Edit: supposedly this will pass the Senate on the 4th of July (second Libation, sorry, Independence day), that’s a Monday, so we all sell on Thursday the week before and rebuy Wednesday? 
In all fairness, for a 20% tax increase I see no reason for prices to need to drop more than 20%, and it doesn’t even apply to everyone, only foreign investors.
fwiw, some people don’t think it actually targets interest payments (e.g. treasury, bonds):
Exemptions for portfolio interest, bank deposit interest, interest-related dividends, and qualified foreign pension funds
The Bill does not appear to impact types of income to which “no tax shall be imposed,” such as the portfolio interest exemptions under IRC Sections 871(h) and 881(c), the exemptions for bank deposit interest in IRC Sections 871(i) and 881(d), and the exemptions for interest-related dividends under IRC Sections 871(k)(1) and 881(e)(1). Similarly, the IRC Section 897(l) exemption for qualified foreign pension funds does not appear to be affected.
(an earlier version of the law was less clear afaik, hence the freaking out)
the price function for stocks it non-linear. let’s assume that the change triggers a lot of people to sell, then on the supply demand curve, that might push the price very low before all sellers find a willing buyer.
short term sure, but long term, a stock is still a future cash flow, and the tax just reduces how much future cash flow you get, no? (assuming enough efficient market stuff)
You are right. The stock price is future of cash flow but cash flow calculations need some assumptions too
Allianz is not saying price to drop 20%, they said 10%. That is their assumption.
It would be good if US Govt bonds will be out of this as that would be disastrous. But still if Corporate bonds are part of this then it reduces the attractiveness of Corp Debt.
All these rules and laws are being pushed under one assumption that US Stock market, Debt market and Credit market is the best in world and people should pay for privilege to participate in these. However, people are already paying for this privilege (S&P trades at very high multiples, US treasury yield is still reasonable even with such high debt & liabilities)
If you exclude the BTC spin on things, what she says about the Fed not being able to either lower or raise rates seems very… interesting.
This happened (on a much smaller scale) in Hungary a couple years back, when the local currency suddenly dropped about 30% in a year in the same check-mate squeeze. 
Thanks for sharing. My investments have been centered around the same underlying premise: that the only way out will be to continue to run fiscal deficits, impose financial repression and allow the real value of the debt to be eroded by inflation.
This is why I focus on real assets: gold, commodities, real estate (with long fixed financing). US exporters might become more competitive too.
The start of 2006 is cherry-picked, if you zoom out the correlation is far less perfect, and three years of deviation seem less unique.
I think the recent divergence has a very simple cause: the date when US froze Russian assets after the invasion of Ukraine.
This probably marks the start of the relentless bid for gold from foreign central banks looking to reduce their exposure to US risk.
I would say, we should differentiate between USD and US bonds. Central banks hold foreign currency but they also hold foreign bonds.
The share of USD in foreign exchange reserves is definitely changing but it used to be lower 10 years back as well. In fact before the Eurozone crisis EURO was a valid alternate to USD but kind of declined after the crisis
Share of foreign ownership of US treasuries has also been on decline for many years. This doesn’t always mean the absolute ownership is reducing because total US debt is also increasing
Ukraine war has obviously jolted the confidence of foreign central banks because it showed weaponisation of dollar which can cripple any economy in a matter of days. So need for diversification might have accelerated the shift but I don’t think Ukraine war is the only reason.
However we also need to remember that US share of world GDP will continue to fall over time because India & China are growing at faster rate. So this also means the need for USD will also reduce anyways
Even though central banks might try to buy gold as replacement of US treasuries, there is no way that they can replace all their exposure because Gold market is not that big. There is a need for other bonds from other credible governments to take market share. As a matter of fact 17% of gold is already owned by central banks.
P.S -: don’t worry much. US government is already pushing Tether and other stable coins. They know that there is a bit of craze about owning “digital coins” so they would like these stable coins to use US treasury as a backing and thus embed US treasury in the crypto market and this also creates an artificial demand for US treasuries.
Imagine digital stable coin backed by US treasury which in itself is in debt crisis 
the name “stable” doesn’t make much sense
Looks like Big beautiful bill is in trouble
This may be true, but also note that in the first graph, the share of unallocated foreign exchange reserves was much larger around 2009-2011. I have no idea why. If most of these “unreported” reserves were in fact USD, the growth of the USD reserves would be less steep.
A different article talks about the composition of FX reserves at this moment
I think unallocated means it’s either not disclosed or it’s not known. Not sure what it actually contains
Trump seems to be burning bridges everytime he works with someone. This tells a lot. It seems that Musk was always serious about Deficit issues and he is willing to crash TSLA to make a point. Unbelievable
Musk is continuing to fire off inflammatory posts on his social media account.
He suggests his influence will last longer than Trump’s in a response to conspiracy theorist Laura Loomer - who has asked what Republican lawmakers might do now, following this feud.
“Oh and some food for thought as they ponder this question: Trump has 3.5 years left as president, but I will be around for 40+ years…” Musk responds.
I can’t find my post where I called it to almost the day they’ve go openly against each other…
I was thinking about the same
CALLED IT!!!
(yes it’s a complete sentence, forum bot)
Other than that…OMFG Musk dropping the gauntlet. Also…oh dear.
Edit: how did you find it, I searched but not effectively obviously.
