As we start to get closer to year end, I thought it would be a good idea to reflect on 2025 and provide an outlook on 2026.
I’ll take some more time to reflect on this, but here’s my initial recap
2025 performance
+27.94% portfolio performance so far (excl. dividends / options income)
+4.3% income from dividends (rough estimate, I keep track of each payment but not to the last frank)
+5.4% income from options trading
Biggest regret vs. biggest ‘glad I did that’ - going to take some more time to reflect on that as I review my portfolio in the coming weeks. In any case, I’m glad I made the step into bitcoin (via IBIT ETF) although I should have done that much earlier. Some nice gains there on purchasing the ETF outright and even (much much) more from writing put options on the ETF. Have also used the recept dip to allocation a small portion of my Finpension Freizugigkeitskonto to Bitcoin. In terms of biggest regret… none which immediately comes to mind, 2025 was really a year with the wind in the sails. Perhaps (looking back) I should have not been so aggressive with doing extra mortgage payments but it gives me peace of mind (even more so: my wife!) and that’s worth something as well.
Key thought going into 2026: going to ‘tone down’ by cash covered puts a bit and where I get my covered calls ‘called on’, I may put that cash on the side to build in more safety in my portfolio as I’m starting to get increasingly nervous about the market. I might get tempted in the end to then use that cash amount to place bigger bets re cash covered puts but on fewer stocks - and in any case stocks I’d like to own. So that contradicts my first thought a bit.
Will provide an update as I get closer to 31/12 and look forward to hearing from others around their lookback and lookforward.
Wow, nice YTD. Really nice. Just rise it a little and do it for 20 years. I’m trying, but only at 27.22% CAGR since 2020. Want to get at Peter Lynch, 28% at 20 years. But then I still have another one and a half decade…
I’d be more than happy if I could (on average) do half of 28% each year. 2025 (thusfar) has been quite exceptional. For the past 3 years I had an annual avg return (excl. div/options) of 16.24% and for the past 5 years 10.02%.
I suspect that being more active with options has in fact helped me to become less irrationally attached to certain stocks.
Good to be reminded of that occasionally. Simply avoiding stupid things is already a big step forward! I was dumb with writing some Put options on Microstrategy but lucky (really: pure luck) that these expired without having to take ownership (and at a much too high price).
I’ve put considerable effort documenting my portfolio objectives / guardrails and ensuring ongoing management of an ‘inventory’ of stocks with ratings and filters…. coupled with limiting myself to only doing trades on a certain day of the week. Both to avoid making decisions that have not been well thought through.
So what “no pissing around” strategy gave 30% this year? All-world ETF is what ca. 10% in CHF terms, maybe a bit less or are you not counting your parents’ returns in CHF?
Incidentally, I am also at +11% right now for the year. But I was at -21% at one point. So I am happy overall. And this is in CHF terms.
I prefer money to fame. Actually fame is negative in this sense.
And yes, the power of compounding does that. But I try hard to spend more, I’m old and don’t need to be the richest man in the graveyard.
Just checked: it made me 3.681 of USD 1 in a bit under 6 years and with taking out some for living. But then I am not at 28%, the XIRR function says it is 27.2% for my mechanical momentum strategy.
It probably stops to scale someday and then it will be much more difficult to keep up this performance anyhow.
Exact portfolio (last 2 positions are small relative to first 3):
BTI +61% (+5.3% div)
AEM +113% (+2.7% div)
Kazatomprom +30% (+2.1% div)
IBKR +42% (+0.5% div)
Bonds (not sure on this position. I’d guess +10% return and +12% interest rate)
Those are the local currency change in prices. On top of that there are dividends and interest. Then add together and convert to CHF and the return should be well over 30% in CHF terms.
Overall I am content. No idea what % my portfolio did but it keeps growing, so that’s fine I guess.
Yes, I could have bough NVIDIA and made a lot of “money” but now I’d be wondering all the time whether it’d be time to sell. Yes, I could have moved to Zug or Schwiz and be saving 5 figures a year in taxes but then I am settled in Zurich with local school, friends, and nice neighbours.
New year resolution: buy more stocks ETFs to finally reach my desired AA (now too heavy on RE).
Buy on the dip, or be priced out of the market forever!
Keep believing!
I stepped into Bitcoin (finally) this year. Less because I am a crypto zealot, more because of the optionality in case it does explode (in a positive way). So far so good (and writing put options on IBIT ETF also helps).
I recall wanting to buy the ETF and UBS was not able to support it at first. Demand became overwhelming so they put it in place and now it’s easy.
Not being able to buy this ETF is what nudged me to play around with Microstrategy (dumb move!) and now I solely (with regard to Crypto) buy/sell IBIT ETF.
In my Finpension Freizugigkeitskonto I also have a bit of Bitcoin but it’s the IShares Bitcoin ETP (not ETF). I have two Finpension accounts (split, as per recommendations) and oddly enough they only allow the ETP in one of them to a max of 5%.
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