2025 => 2026 - your thoughts?

Investing / Brokers
21

I nowadays prefer to zoom out and focus on checking whether I can SWAN (Sleep Well At Night) and if the long term strategy works as planned (and adjust if necessary).

CAGR (TWR) since inception (June 2019)[CAGR] is now at 13.75% (per Nov 30 2025) and cash flow is stable and has been steadily growing (about 5-7% annually since no longer adding any cash to the portfolio but actually withdrawing cash from it for the past now 3 years).

No major adjustment conclusions. If anything, maybe leaning even more heavily on reliable dividend payers, dividend growers, and frowning upon being more skeptic about high dividend payers.:cigarette:

CAGR   Pick a different inception point and the CAGR will wildly oscilate. It’ll become meaningful in maybe about 20 years or so. :wink:

:cigarette: Except tobacco companies.
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22

Interesting. My mechanical dividend strategy is around the same, 13.88% XIRR since 2020. Tax and margin interest already deducted.

My target was 10%.

I am not afraid of high dividend payers, but they need to fulfill my cash flow requirements.

Highest payers at the moment APAM, MO, O and GIS. I think the CNA dividend is wrong at some financial sites because they use to pay a yearly special dividend depending on business.

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23

That’s true for a couple of other companies as well. Even FASTgraphs gets some of them wrong (which I guess boils down to FactSet – which is by the way just about fairly valued now for the first time since 2008 – who is their data provider).

24

2025 not in the bag yet. As they say, it aint over till the fat lady sings. I hold my breath, juuust a little longer

2026, no surprise if S&P is sub-5000 in April.

25

That’s a >25% drop, pretty steep don’t you think?

Agree on not counting any chickens until the 31st though.

26

That would only wipe out last 24 months of gain. We crossed S&P at 5000 in dec 2023

I think the next crash could be epic. That is even without expansion of war in Europe beyond Ukraine, Taiwan invasion, US coup or a new epidemic. All very plausible

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27

Username so appropriate :grin:

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28

imho… I see it just for the band :joy:

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29

Nitpick: The band is Europe, The Final Countdown is the song.

Hence only European stocks will tank next year?

I’ll see myself out.

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30

The S&P 500 is a very mystic thing. Not even the board that chooses the stocks is known. They don’t want to be lynched for their poor decisions and yes, those were very poor in the past.

But what does it matter, you are compared to the average and you set the average.

I don’t care a rats ass what the secrets mans average does; most of the stocks contained I would not even touch with gloves. :smiling_face_with_sunglasses:

P.S. Just check one of my big winners, Supermicro. Added by the mighty unknown crew at around 115, I bought at 4.32…

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31

This year was kind of crazy, but it hasn’t ended yet :smiley:

MWR YTD according to IBKR went from the lowest point of -26.5 during tariffs to a current 56.5. I assume currency adjusted.

Wild ride and did not expect this much. I gradually concentrated to a few stock holdings, and currently a big chunk is in one stock. But a big part of it is definitely luck

P.S just realized correct way to compare is TWR, it is 46.5 %

32

So what’s your take on your stash?

33

Torn between wanting a drop to buy and wanting ralley to continue (which is where you find peace)

Preparing 15 pct in cash just in case

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34

You want to hope for a ralley until the end of year for the graphs and then a big drop for buying that lasts precisely until the end of 2026.

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35

A drop to buy, people tend to forget a bear market can last decades and that there are alternatives to flash-crash-buy-the-dip-recover scenario.

(e.g. the watch-your-wealth-fade-over-the-years one)

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37

Let’s make the market tax-efficient for this end of year.

38

Yes, this whole stock market has not been very efficient. It’s just been going up and possibly timed just to drop from unsustainable all time highs just before my retirement.

What would have been better would be for it to have fallen constantly, being at its lowest point later in time where I have my highest earning power and free money to invest. Only when I retire, should it go crazy like it has done the last years.

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39

Then you just buy arms companies.

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40

nuh, santa rallys are not very tax efficient

Why? Maybe in other countries but CH?