I am genuinely curious to understand how “earnings are priced in”.
I mean, we are looking at a car manufacturer with declining margins, declining revenues (and probably declining profits, depending how they will recognized deferred revenue), with an ageing model lineup, probably no new model (if any) before 2026, and EV competition firing from all directions, especially China which used to be the bulk of the company’s profitability.
Add to that that they seem to bet the company on FSD, which is way behind their competitors in its actual version, and they probably won’t have any state registration before two or three years if they ever manage to release something really functional and safe (and as said earlier, currently FSD is not safe. 1 Disengagement every 400 miles is a cool toy hobby, but not something commercially viable).
And yet, the stock is still trading at 50+ earnings. So no, earnings are not priced in. It has never been about earnings. It is probably about people thinking that Elon can pull another rabbit out of his hat.
If earnings were priced in, the stock would probably not trade above $20. But somehow there is this big Elon optionality premium.
But again, I have been (very) wrong about this stock in the past and I probably will be in the future as well. For me it was a good lesson learned that numbers don’t always make sense and yet a cool narrative is enough for an impressive stock performance.
At this point I am only there to study how it unfolds.
Wasn’t there a horse here over both ears in Tesla? It would be interesting to hear where they are now. These kind of evolutions are really educating. A honest account can teach us all so much (including for themselves!).
The reality is when stock goes up you tell yourself a different story than the story you tell yourself when stock goes down.
Investing is all about the story you want to believe in.
For real fundamentals based investors -: this might be a buying opportunity if they really believe in their story unless their narrative is changed.
The main learning here is that all innovations at some point become commodity so one should not assume that exponential growth for a given firm is infinite (mainly due to competition but sometimes due to overestimation) -: be it EVs, iPhones or AI Chips……
I failed to see how your second and third statements reconcile with the first one.
On a lighter note, careful with the “everything is priced in” logic.
Don’t even ask the question. The answer is yes, it’s priced in. Think Amazon will beat the next earnings? That’s already been priced in. You work at the drive thru for Mickey D’s and found out that the burgers are made of human meat? Priced in. You think insiders don’t already know that? The market is an all powerful, all encompassing being that knows the very inner workings of your subconscious before you were even born. Your very existence was priced in decades ago when the market was valuing Standard Oil’s expected future earnings based on population growth that would lead to your birth, what age you would get a car, how many times you would drive your car every week, how many times you take the bus/train, etc. Anything you can think of has already been priced in, even the things you aren’t thinking of. You have no original thoughts. Your consciousness is just an illusion, a product of the omniscent market. Free will is a myth. The market sees all, knows all and will be there from the beginning of time until the end of the universe (the market has already priced in the heat death of the universe). So please, before you make a post on wsb asking whether AAPL has priced in earpods 11 sales or whatever, know that it has already been priced in and don’t ask such a dumb fucking question again.
I wouldn’t worry about Tesla‘s earnings too much.
Particularly not about them having a negative effect on the stock price.
They can just lie cook the books as they need.
Musk has been making up stuff that never materialised for years (FSD, robotaxis).
The guy’s a true visionary - who doesn’t let get facts, truth or reality get in the way of selling his vision.
Or technological feasibility.
He’s also a libertarian. Not inclined to bow to authority - or the law.
And his buddies and lackeys control the board.
I admit upfront that this comment will not contribute to the discussion. I’ve never driven a Tesla or any other EV, and I have no knowledge of their financials.
However, one thing I’ve noticed is that every time I’m on the highway and I come across a EV, it seems to be moving at a snail’s pace. It’s as if all EV drivers are afraid of running out of battery and not being able to charge it… driving with kid gloves
Perhaps because the way an electric vehicle drives is different from that of a combustion engine vehicle?
It seems to me that for Tesla, deceleration allows the battery to be recharged, and that the deceleration force can be adapted so that the battery charges more or less proportionally to the force. No acceleration = no consumption. Deceleration = battery recharging .
By reading and partipating to this forum, you confirm you have read and agree with the disclaimer presented on http://www.mustachianpost.com/
En lisant et participant à ce forum, tu confirmes avoir lu et être d'accord avec l'avis de dégagement de responsabilité présenté sur http://www.mustachianpost.com/fr/
Durch das Lesen und die Teilnahme an diesem Forum bestätigst du, dass du den auf http://www.mustachianpost.com/de/ dargestellten Haftungsausschluss gelesen hast und damit einverstanden bist.