Will Tesla go Bust?

:wink:

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The reality is when stock goes up you tell yourself a different story than the story you tell yourself when stock goes down.

Investing is all about the story you want to believe in.

For real fundamentals based investors -: this might be a buying opportunity if they really believe in their story unless their narrative is changed.

The main learning here is that all innovations at some point become commodity so one should not assume that exponential growth for a given firm is infinite (mainly due to competition but sometimes due to overestimation) -: be it EVs, iPhones or AI Chips……

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Very true, and making one more point (as if needed!) for index investing, in which there is no need for narratives, due diligence etc etc

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I was short TSLA but closed at a loss when Fed went all dovish at the end of last year. Had I held, it would have been a 35% in 5 months.

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Market is fwd looking. Everything is priced in. If today is doing -10%, it was already planned. Do you think we can compete with edge funds?

Exactly. It was at one point 1000 PE, right?

I remember a friend telling me in in 2018 that was a madness to buy it, because this and that. Same topic everytime.

Would you buy tsla that is oversold or some other tech name near ATH?

Meme stocks are retail dominated, there’s a ton of risk betting against those.

(But lots of money to make on mispriced options/futures that’s probably enough for them)

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I failed to see how your second and third statements reconcile with the first one.
On a lighter note, careful with the “everything is priced in” logic.

Don’t even ask the question. The answer is yes, it’s priced in. Think Amazon will beat the next earnings? That’s already been priced in. You work at the drive thru for Mickey D’s and found out that the burgers are made of human meat? Priced in. You think insiders don’t already know that? The market is an all powerful, all encompassing being that knows the very inner workings of your subconscious before you were even born. Your very existence was priced in decades ago when the market was valuing Standard Oil’s expected future earnings based on population growth that would lead to your birth, what age you would get a car, how many times you would drive your car every week, how many times you take the bus/train, etc. Anything you can think of has already been priced in, even the things you aren’t thinking of. You have no original thoughts. Your consciousness is just an illusion, a product of the omniscent market. Free will is a myth. The market sees all, knows all and will be there from the beginning of time until the end of the universe (the market has already priced in the heat death of the universe). So please, before you make a post on wsb asking whether AAPL has priced in earpods 11 sales or whatever, know that it has already been priced in and don’t ask such a dumb fucking question again.

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From my point of view, FA/news accelerates TA

I know this one from WSB :grinning:

That’s why all markets are absolutely static and sleepy, with close to zero volatility :wink:

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Lol, do you think the ETF BTC approval was not priced in before January? Price went up from October for a mysterious reason?

The new Model 3 Performance is here. And so juicy, and so tempting. Sad my cash/emergency fund is 1k right now. Do they accept Doge?

I wouldn’t worry about Tesla‘s earnings too much.
Particularly not about them having a negative effect on the stock price.

They can just lie cook the books as they need.

Musk has been making up stuff that never materialised for years (FSD, robotaxis).
The guy’s a true visionary - who doesn’t let get facts, truth or reality get in the way of selling his vision.
Or technological feasibility.

He’s also a libertarian. Not inclined to bow to authority - or the law.
And his buddies and lackeys control the board.

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I admit upfront that this comment will not contribute to the discussion. I’ve never driven a Tesla or any other EV, and I have no knowledge of their financials.

However, one thing I’ve noticed is that every time I’m on the highway and I come across a EV, it seems to be moving at a snail’s pace. It’s as if all EV drivers are afraid of running out of battery and not being able to charge it… driving with kid gloves

Perhaps because the way an electric vehicle drives is different from that of a combustion engine vehicle?

It seems to me that for Tesla, deceleration allows the battery to be recharged, and that the deceleration force can be adapted so that the battery charges more or less proportionally to the force. No acceleration = no consumption. Deceleration = battery recharging :slightly_smiling_face:.

Let’s see now the earnings call and if tomorrow at NYO the price will be still green

When that will happen —> DOGE to the moon :grinning:

This is the clearest evidence of what priced-in means.

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Sorry but your comment is contradictory. Since Tesla stock increased by 10%+, clearly not everything was priced in yesterday.

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One could say that. Tesla’s numbers fell short of analysts‘ expectation but must have beaten the „whisper number“ expectation. Go figure.

:wink:

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