When do we reach the bottom of the dip? (2022-24 Edition)

Time to dump the cash reserves? :yum:

4 Likes

Or a bull run is just around the corner, who knows!? That’s why just DCA and spend your time outside the spreadsheet (and this thread)

13 Likes

Bank of America said that the bear market will end on October 19th 2022, the S&P500 will be at 3’000 :laughing:

Sad that I have to focus on other important thing in my life than investment this year, otherwise, it will be a perfect time to DCA!

1 Like

Thank you, now I am reassured that it will be at 5000 by the end of this year.

7 Likes

Damn the monthly salaries are not coming quick enough to lower my average unit price !

3 Likes

I take the symbolic bet that VT will reach the $83/CHF83 area before the end of the month :grin:.

1 Like

Well, since my dry powder still hasn’t arrived at my broker, I wish you a successful bet :grin:

Just added 50 VRWL because why not

5 Likes

Finally, dry powder’s arrived, will be lit on fire at market opening. I’m even considering deploying my special forces, the emergency fund, as soon as we get to VT 83 (just for symbolic reasons, that’s the pre-covid high :grin:). Maybe it would even be worth thinking of an options strategy around VT 83, some kind of behavioural finance move.

One could definitely buy infinitely more stupid things than the global market, so: well done :clap:

6 Likes

Any details behind that thinking?

SNB has been intervening in the market for >10 years to weaken the CHF via negative interest rates and printing CHF. It doesn’t seem obvious why they would now want to try to strengthen the CHF but I may have missed recent news

On the other hand if they are comfortable with the current FX rate the reduction of upwards pressure on the CHF may give them some freedom to increase the CHF interest rate and thereby cool the hot housing market. Perhaps this is already partly anticipated by the market as 10 year mortgage rates increased from 1% to almost 2%

3 Likes

I think the SNB will first let things play out as they welcome this weaking of the CHF. They might not do anything till 1 Euro is 1.20 CHF and 1 USD is 1.10 CHF. Then I guess they would start selling their EUR/USD currency reserves to keep this FX rate steady if there is still an upward trend. This will reduce their oberblown balance sheet and they might earn something for selling those reserves at a higher price that they bought it. Then I would think about increasing interest rates if inflation hasn’t returned to normal.

So I see 2 options for the SNB for 2 different cases:

  1. Sell foreign currency reserves to counter the weakening of the CHF.
  2. Increase interest rates to counter high inflation if persistent.
5 Likes

I thought they primarily targeted Euro and USD only second (which is why they haven’t moved)

The 1.20 fixed rate back in the days was against Euro.

Isn’t Europe the main business partner ?

1 Like

10 Likes

Ah, good, so they probably won’t do anything then. :relieved:

But the game of paper losses & paper gains is so addictive :upside_down_face:

Dont want to start new thread. But have you seen that ? I am thinking of moving from pure ETF investment strategy in to big names shopping Like Netflix. increasing my DCA every week by X3. Anyone doing the same now ?

No, I am not going from index funds to single companies, but I am curious about your reasoning.

3 Likes

In my View:

There have been only few Giants from Tech who have been driving S&P 500 in the past 12 month Up, when the rest of the basket have been bleeding for a long time, and now the tech have been hit the most and some of it actually trade on the reasonable EPS (under 20). So its would be good to add few best of the best companies at the lower prices in to portfolio, who we believe will survive no matter what market throws. As I am sure a lot of companies wont survive the storm so the risk of indexes of continue falling is high in my opinion. PS. I still plan to have bigger part of the portfolio in VT and VOO, but move may be 40 % of it in the individual stocks.

You may reconsider starting with



then :smirk:

3 Likes