When do we reach the bottom of the dip? (2022-24 Edition)

Investing / Others
807

It was the Uranium sector.

808

Did it? We’re almost where we were 2 days ago :stuck_out_tongue: Millennial market, throwing toys out the pram like it dropped its lollipop on the ground.

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809

The CPI/LIK for Switzerland came out on Monday and now I can do calculations according to the procedure that I have outlined.

But first another milestone of note. My benchmark, “MSCI ACWI IMI Net Total Return” in (nominal) USD have started to make new All-Times Highs since few days, the latest being, you have guessed it, on 12.02.2024.

Does it mean that we are out of the dip? Not in my playbook.

The latest 2024 maximum of my usual benchmark “MSCI ACWI IMI Net Total Return in CHF” was 1855.57 CHF, also on 12.02.2024. In nominal terms, this is a level not seen from February 2022, i.e. we have reached a 2 years maximum. It is only -4.7% from the previous ATH (1947.97 CHF, on 16.11.2021), +21.9% from the 30.09.2022 bottom, +16% (!!!) from the 26.10.2023 bottom and +6.7% YTD.

However on inflation-adjusted basis it looks as follows: -9% from the previous ATH, +20.1% from the 30.09.2022 bottom, +15.9%from the 26.10.2023 bottom and +6.5% YTD.

Nevertheless, the drawdown of less than 10% from ATH, a level last seen in May 2022, means that we are now in a “normal” market state, although the last ATH was more than 2 years ago.

This means, for example, if I were a retiree living from my portfolio, I would go from “soft economy mode” (“correction” phase in the market) to the “normal” portfolio withdrawal mode.

Stay tuned.
PI

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810

That’s an interesting way to look at it, I like it (assuming you believe in mean reversion). You could combine that with the classic retirement strategies like guardrails, buckets etc.

811

Interesting summary, thanks! Where do you pull the data for the inflation-adjusted “MSCI ACWI IMI Net Total Return in CHF”? Or do you have a own spreadsheet for that?

812

That one is from MSCI. Then,

Of course :grin:!

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813

So is now a good moment to invest my bonus?

I always invest my money as soon as it‘s available. Got unlucky more often than lucky, but there should be some reversion to mean longterm? So all-in today?

814

All-in plus margin :stuck_out_tongue_closed_eyes:

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815

Congrats on the bonus.
If I were undecided, I’d invest half of it today and decide about the rest (lump sum or DCA) in the next couple of days.
Establish investment rules for yourself regarding future bonuses.

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816

Maybe the timing of the bonus is the reason that you were unlucky more often than lucky? Of course nobody knows what would happen this year.

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818

Let’s see the pump today after NVDA’s earnings

Still not planning to buy anything for a couple of months.

819

I have considered buying NVDA yesterday, so pretty sure that the peak is close by :joy:. However, I keep saying since 2021 during the Crypto craziness that NVDA is way over priced and it has railed ever since :clown_face:

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820

These earnings gave it at least another 3 months runway in my opinion. Also important bit is the cloud service part of earnings which has skyrocketed and will boost many other sectors. Of course now greed will become even more extreme. Sitting still, on my hands, with handcuffs.

This quote is confusing me:
““Accelerated computing and generative AI have hit the tipping point,” said Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang.”".

“Tipping point” basically means “point of no return”, but in my book it’s always had bad connotations, which is not what the nVidia boss is saying, obviously.

821

NYSE S&P500 10 mins in:
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822

The weird psychology in the accumulation phase:

Going down: Yeah, I’m going to be buying low! :partying_face:
Going up: Yeah I’m getting richer! :partying_face:

(Also going up but buying soon on autoinvest: why does it ALWAYS get expensive now?)

It’s not entirely rational


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823

Totally, need tricks to stay motivated while earning good money and being frugal. Very long-term benefit is not that easy to keep committed to when it can feel that one is losing comfort today, tomorrow, for a month, for six months, for a year etc.

Anything to remain motivated is golden and whoever thinks otherwise needs to better understand human psychology. Humans are anything but rational.

824

At least you have positive emotions :sweat_smile:
For me it’s:
Going down? Oh no, I’m losing money :sob:
Going up? Oh no, I’ll have to buy high :sob:

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825

More like:

Going higher: OMG. I under-estimated how much these morons are willing to overpay!

826

When SMCI reached $1000. I really wanted to short, but I really couldn’t be sure how much more stupid people buying could be.

And even if I did, I might have looked right for 2 days, but it’s almost back at $1000 again!

827

That’s really the problem I’ve had when trying to time the market. One can successfully identify an overvalued market due for correction but people can be irrational longer than I can stay confident I can live with the consequences of my positioning. Overbought markets can skyrocket way higher even when they’re already very high, and investors can come down to reality at any point.

I find funnier not to have to deal with any specific positioning as I watch them suddenly realize that “hey, maybe the Fed isn’t cutting rates right at the first opportunity!” for the third time in a row, then rebounce higher on the earnings results of a seller of shovels in the middle of a gold rush toward a mountain of fumes.

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