In the end I think Fed will have to cut when the recession bites. I think the market was way too ‘optimistic’ in thinking that the cuts would come already in the first quarter and pricing in 7 cuts for 2024. Now the market had a long overdue reality check, and as typical, over-reacted.
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I quoted it because it was the news that caused interest rate expectations and therefore CHF FX rate to change. The interest rate change will also impact house prices and existing rental contracts
Who actually gives a monkey’s about if there is a recession? Either the economy is during great or not. The obsession with “recession” in the media is so tiring. Furthermore, if someone can just say “no it was not a recession” like in 2022 from some US-President, even tough the (unofficial) criteria was met, it just shows how meaningless it is. Considering that the market values the future, it appears even less relevant and would be priced in anyway. Sorry for the rant but can’t stand reporting on recession 
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It was the Uranium sector.
Did it? We’re almost where we were 2 days ago Millennial market, throwing toys out the pram like it dropped its lollipop on the ground.
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The CPI/LIK for Switzerland came out on Monday and now I can do calculations according to the procedure that I have outlined.
But first another milestone of note. My benchmark, “MSCI ACWI IMI Net Total Return” in (nominal) USD have started to make new All-Times Highs since few days, the latest being, you have guessed it, on 12.02.2024.
Does it mean that we are out of the dip? Not in my playbook.
The latest 2024 maximum of my usual benchmark “MSCI ACWI IMI Net Total Return in CHF” was 1855.57 CHF, also on 12.02.2024. In nominal terms, this is a level not seen from February 2022, i.e. we have reached a 2 years maximum. It is only -4.7% from the previous ATH (1947.97 CHF, on 16.11.2021), +21.9% from the 30.09.2022 bottom, +16% (!!!) from the 26.10.2023 bottom and +6.7% YTD.
However on inflation-adjusted basis it looks as follows: -9% from the previous ATH, +20.1% from the 30.09.2022 bottom, +15.9%from the 26.10.2023 bottom and +6.5% YTD.
Nevertheless, the drawdown of less than 10% from ATH, a level last seen in May 2022, means that we are now in a “normal” market state, although the last ATH was more than 2 years ago.
This means, for example, if I were a retiree living from my portfolio, I would go from “soft economy mode” (“correction” phase in the market) to the “normal” portfolio withdrawal mode.
Stay tuned.
PI
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That’s an interesting way to look at it, I like it (assuming you believe in mean reversion). You could combine that with the classic retirement strategies like guardrails, buckets etc.
Interesting summary, thanks! Where do you pull the data for the inflation-adjusted “MSCI ACWI IMI Net Total Return in CHF”? Or do you have a own spreadsheet for that?
That one is from MSCI. Then,
Of course 
!
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So is now a good moment to invest my bonus?
I always invest my money as soon as it‘s available. Got unlucky more often than lucky, but there should be some reversion to mean longterm? So all-in today?
All-in plus margin 
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Congrats on the bonus.
If I were undecided, I’d invest half of it today and decide about the rest (lump sum or DCA) in the next couple of days.
Establish investment rules for yourself regarding future bonuses.
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Maybe the timing of the bonus is the reason that you were unlucky more often than lucky? Of course nobody knows what would happen this year.
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Let’s see the pump today after NVDA’s earnings…
Still not planning to buy anything for a couple of months.
I have considered buying NVDA yesterday, so pretty sure that the peak is close by 
. However, I keep saying since 2021 during the Crypto craziness that NVDA is way over priced and it has railed ever since 
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These earnings gave it at least another 3 months runway in my opinion. Also important bit is the cloud service part of earnings which has skyrocketed and will boost many other sectors. Of course now greed will become even more extreme. Sitting still, on my hands, with handcuffs.
This quote is confusing me:
““Accelerated computing and generative AI have hit the tipping point,” said Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang.”".
“Tipping point” basically means “point of no return”, but in my book it’s always had bad connotations, which is not what the nVidia boss is saying, obviously.
NYSE S&P500 10 mins in:
The weird psychology in the accumulation phase:
Going down: Yeah, I’m going to be buying low! 
Going up: Yeah I’m getting richer!
(Also going up but buying soon on autoinvest: why does it ALWAYS get expensive now?)
It’s not entirely rational…
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Totally, need tricks to stay motivated while earning good money and being frugal. Very long-term benefit is not that easy to keep committed to when it can feel that one is losing comfort today, tomorrow, for a month, for six months, for a year etc.
Anything to remain motivated is golden and whoever thinks otherwise needs to better understand human psychology. Humans are anything but rational.
At least you have positive emotions 
For me it’s:
Going down? Oh no, I’m losing money 
Going up? Oh no, I’ll have to buy high
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